A power system control scheme based on security visualisation in parameter space

Power system real time security assessment is one of the fundamental modules of the electricity markets. Typically, when a contingency occurs, it is required that security assessment and enhancement module shall be ready for action within about 20 minutes’ time to meet the real time requirement. The recent California black out again highlighted the importance of system security. This paper proposed an approach for power system security assessment and enhancement based on the information provided from the pre-defined system parameter space. The proposed scheme opens up an efficient way for real time security assessment and enhancement in a competitive electricity market for single contingency case

Genetic algorithms for continuous optimization problems - a concept of parameter-space size adjustment

The concept of parameter-space size adjustment is pn,posed in order to enable successful application of genetic algorithms to continuous optimization problems. Performance of genetic algorithms with six different combinations of selection and reproduction mechanisms, with and without parameter-space size adjustment, were severely tested on eleven multiminima test functions. An algorithm with the best performance was employed for the determination of the model parameters of the optical constants of Pt, Ni and Cr.

Magma Flow Instabilities in a Volcanic Conduit: Implications for Long-Period Seismicity

Silicic volcanic eruptions are typically accompanied by repetitive Long-Period (LP) seismicity that originates from a small region of the upper conduit. These signals have the capability to advance eruption prediction, since they commonly precede a change in the eruption vigour. Shear bands forming along the conduit wall, where the shear stresses are highest, have been linked to providing the seismic trigger. However, existing computational models are unable to generate shear bands at the depths where the LP signals originate using simple magma strength models. Presented here is a model in which the magma strength is determined from a constitutive relationship dependent upon crystallinity and pressure. This results in a depth-dependent magma strength, analogous to planetary lithospheres. Hence, in shallow highly-crystalline regions a macroscopically discontinuous brittle type of deformation will prevail, whilst in deeper crystal-poor regions there will be a macroscopically continuous plastic deformation mechanism. This will result in a depth where the brittle-ductile transition occurs, and here shear bands disconnected from the free-surface may develop. We utilize the Finite Element Method and use axi-symmetric coordinates to model magma flow as a viscoplastic material, simulating quasi-static shear bands along the walls of a volcanic conduit. Model results constrained to the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, show the generation of two types of shear bands: upper-conduit shear bands that form between the free-surface to a few 100 metres below it and discrete shear bands that form at the depths where LP seismicity is measured to occur corresponding to the brittle-ductile transition and the plastic shear region. It is beyond the limitation of the model to simulate a seismic event, although the modelled viscosity within the discrete shear bands suggests a failure and healing cycle time that supports the observed LP seismicity repeat times. However, due to the paucity of data and large parameter space available these results can only be considered to be qualitative rather than quantitative at this stage.

Phase diagram for a class of spin-1/2 Heisenberg models interpolating between the square-lattice, the triangular-lattice, and the linear-chain limits

We study the spin-1/2 Heisenberg models on an anisotropic two-dimensional lattice which interpolates between the square lattice at one end, a set of decoupled spin chains on the other end, and the triangular-lattice Heisenberg model in between. By series expansions around two different dimer ground states and around various commensurate and incommensurate magnetically ordered states, we establish the phase diagram for this model of a frustrated antiferromagnet. We find a particularly rich phase diagram due to the interplay of magnetic frustration, quantum fluctuations, and varying dimensionality. There is a large region of the usual two-sublattice Neel phase, a three-sublattice phase for the triangular-lattice model, a region of incommensurate magnetic order around the triangular-lattice model, and regions in parameter space where there is no magnetic order. We find that the incommensurate ordering wave vector is in general altered from its classical value by quantum fluctuations. The regime of weakly coupled chains is particularly interesting and appears to be nearly critical. [S0163-1829(99)10421-1].

A new formation model for M32: a threshed early-type spiral galaxy?

The origin of M32, the closest compact elliptical galaxy (cE), is a long-standing puzzle of galaxy fort-nation in the Local Group. Our N-body/smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations suggest a new scenario in which the strong tidal field of M31 can transform a spiral galaxy into a compact elliptical galaxy. As a low-luminosity spiral galaxy plunges into the central region of M31, most of the outer stellar and gaseous components of its disk are dramatically stripped as a result of M31's tidal field. The central bulge component, on the other hand, is just weakly influenced by the tidal field, owing to its compact configuration, and retains its morphology. M31's strong tidal field also induces rapid gas transfer to the central region, triggers a nuclear starburst, and consequently forms the central high-density and more metal-rich stellar populations with relatively young ages. Thus, in this scenario, M32 was previously the bulge of a spiral galaxy tidally interacting with M31 several gigayears ago. Furthermore, we suggest that cE's like M32 are rare, the result of both the rather narrow parameter space for tidal interactions that morphologically transform spiral galaxies into cE's and the very short timescale (less than a few times 10(9) yr) for cE's to be swallowed by their giant host galaxies (via dynamical friction) after their formation.

Large amplitude folding in finely layered viscoelastic rock structures

We analyze folding phenomena in finely layered viscoelastic rock. Fine is meant in the sense that the thickness of each layer is considerably smaller than characteristic structural dimensions. For this purpose we derive constitutive relations and apply a computational simulation scheme (a finite-element based particle advection scheme; see MORESI et al., 2001) suitable for problems involving very large deformations of layered viscous and viscoelastic rocks. An algorithm for the time integration of the governing equations as well as details of the finite-element implementation is also given. We then consider buckling instabilities in a finite, rectangular domain. Embedded within this domain, parallel to the longer dimension we consider a stiff, layered plate. The domain is compressed along the layer axis by prescribing velocities along the sides. First, for the viscous limit we consider the response to a series of harmonic perturbations of the director orientation. The Fourier spectra of the initial folding velocity are compared for different viscosity ratios. Turning to the nonlinear regime we analyze viscoelastic folding histories up to 40% shortening. The effect of layering manifests itself in that appreciable buckling instabilities are obtained at much lower viscosity ratios (1:10) as is required for the buckling of isotropic plates (1:500). The wavelength induced by the initial harmonic perturbation of the director orientation seems to be persistent. In the section of the parameter space considered here elasticity seems to delay or inhibit the occurrence of a second, larger wavelength. Finally, in a linear instability analysis we undertake a brief excursion into the potential role of couple stresses on the folding process. The linear instability analysis also provides insight into the expected modes of deformation at the onset of instability, and the different regimes of behavior one might expect to observe.

Controlling the complex Lorenz equations by modulation

We demonstrate that a system obeying the complex Lorenz equations in the deep chaotic regime can be controlled to periodic behavior by applying a modulation to the pump parameter. For arbitrary modulation frequency and amplitude there is no obvious simplification of the dynamics. However, we find that there are numerous windows where the chaotic system has been controlled to different periodic behaviors. The widths of these windows in parameter space are narrow, and the positions are related to the ratio of the modulation frequency of the pump to the average pulsation frequency of the output variable. These results are in good agreement with observations previously made in a far-infrared laser system.

Empirical evidence for ultrametric structure in multi-layer perceptron error surfaces

Combinatorial optimization problems share an interesting property with spin glass systems in that their state spaces can exhibit ultrametric structure. We use sampling methods to analyse the error surfaces of feedforward multi-layer perceptron neural networks learning encoder problems. The third order statistics of these points of attraction are examined and found to be arranged in a highly ultrametric way. This is a unique result for a finite, continuous parameter space. The implications of this result are discussed.

A unified model of flames as gasdynamic discontinuities

Viewed on a hydrodynamic scale, flames in experiments are often thin so that they may be described as gasdynamic discontinuities separating the dense cold fresh mixture from the light hot burned products. The original model of a flame as a gasdynamic discontinuity was due to Darrieus and to Landau. In addition to the fluid dynamical equations, the model consists of a flame speed relation describing the evolution of the discontinuity surface, and jump conditions across the surface which relate the fluid variables on the two sides of the surface. The Darrieus-Landau model predicts, in contrast to observations, that a uniformly propagating planar flame is absolutely unstable and that the strength of the instability grows with increasing perturbation wavenumber so that there is no high-wavenumber cutoff of the instability. The model was modified by Markstein to exhibit a high-wavenumber cutoff if a phenomenological constant in the model has an appropriate sign. Both models are postulated, rather than derived from first principles, and both ignore the flame structure, which depends on chemical kinetics and transport processes within the flame. At present, there are two models which have been derived, rather than postulated, and which are valid in two non-overlapping regions of parameter space. Sivashinsky derived a generalization of the Darrieus-Landau model which is valid for Lewis numbers (ratio of thermal diffusivity to mass diffusivity of the deficient reaction component) bounded away from unity. Matalon & Matkowsky derived a model valid for Lewis numbers close to unity. Each model has its own advantages and disadvantages. Under appropriate conditions the Matalon-Matkowsky model exhibits a high-wavenumber cutoff of the Darrieus-Landau instability. However, since the Lewis numbers considered lie too close to unity, the Matalon-Matkowsky model does not capture the pulsating instability. The Sivashinsky model does capture the pulsating instability, but does not exhibit its high-wavenumber cutoff. In this paper, we derive a model consisting of a new flame speed relation and new jump conditions, which is valid for arbitrary Lewis numbers. It captures the pulsating instability and exhibits the high-wavenumber cutoff of all instabilities. The flame speed relation includes the effect of short wavelengths, not previously considered, which leads to stabilizing transverse surface diffusion terms.

Three-dimensional solitons in coupled atomic-molecular Bose-Einstein condensates

We present a theoretical analysis of three-dimensional (3D) matter-wave solitons and their stability properties in coupled atomic and molecular Bose-Einstein condensates (BECs). The soliton solutions to the mean-field equations are obtained in an approximate analytical form by means of a variational approach. We investigate soliton stability within the parameter space described by the atom-molecule conversion coupling, the atom-atom s-wave scattering, and the bare formation energy of the molecular species. In terms of ordinary optics, this is analogous to the process of sub- or second-harmonic generation in a quadratic nonlinear medium modified by a cubic nonlinearity, together with a phase mismatch term between the fields. While the possibility of formation of multidimensional spatiotemporal solitons in pure quadratic media has been theoretically demonstrated previously, here we extend this prediction to matter-wave interactions in BEC systems where higher-order nonlinear processes due to interparticle collisions are unavoidable and may not be neglected. The stability of the solitons predicted for repulsive atom-atom interactions is investigated by direct numerical simulations of the equations of motion in a full 3D lattice. Our analysis also leads to a possible technique for demonstrating the ground state of the Schrodinger-Newton and related equations that describe Bose-Einstein condensates with nonlocal interparticle forces.

Accelerating precursory activity within a class of earthquake analogue automata

A statistical fractal automaton model is described which displays two modes of dynamical behaviour. The first mode, termed recurrent criticality, is characterised by quasi-periodic, characteristic events that are preceded by accelerating precursory activity. The second mode is more reminiscent of SOC automata in which large events are not preceded by an acceleration in activity. Extending upon previous studies of statistical fractal automata, a redistribution law is introduced which incorporates two model parameters: a dissipation factor and a stress transfer ratio. Results from a parameter space investigation indicate that a straight line through parameter space marks a transition from recurrent criticality to unpredictable dynamics. Recurrent criticality only occurs for models within one corner of the parameter space. The location of the transition displays a simple dependence upon the fractal correlation dimension of the cell strength distribution. Analysis of stress field evolution indicates that recurrent criticality occurs in models with significant long-range stress correlations. A constant rate of activity is associated with a decorrelated stress field.

Classical and quantum dynamics of a model for atomic-molecular Bose-Einstein condensates

We study a model for a two-mode atomic-molecular Bose-Einstein condensate. Starting with a classical analysis we determine the phase space fixed points of the system. It is found that bifurcations of the fixed points naturally separate the coupling parameter space into four regions. The different regions give rise to qualitatively different dynamics. We then show that this classification holds true for the quantum dynamics.

Efficient accommodation of local minima in watershed model calibration

The Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) method of computer-based parameter estimation, in common with other gradient-based approaches, suffers from the drawback that it may become trapped in local objective function minima, and thus report optimized parameter values that are not, in fact, optimized at all. This can seriously degrade its utility in the calibration of watershed models where local optima abound. Nevertheless, the method also has advantages, chief among these being its model-run efficiency, and its ability to report useful information on parameter sensitivities and covariances as a by-product of its use. It is also easily adapted to maintain this efficiency in the face of potential numerical problems (that adversely affect all parameter estimation methodologies) caused by parameter insensitivity and/or parameter correlation. The present paper presents two algorithmic enhancements to the GML method that retain its strengths, but which overcome its weaknesses in the face of local optima. Using the first of these methods an intelligent search for better parameter sets is conducted in parameter subspaces of decreasing dimensionality when progress of the parameter estimation process is slowed either by numerical instability incurred through problem ill-posedness, or when a local objective function minimum is encountered. The second methodology minimizes the chance of successive GML parameter estimation runs finding the same objective function minimum by starting successive runs at points that are maximally removed from previous parameter trajectories. As well as enhancing the ability of a GML-based method to find the global objective function minimum, the latter technique can also be used to find the locations of many non-global optima (should they exist) in parameter space. This can provide a useful means of inquiring into the well-posedness of a parameter estimation problem, and for detecting the presence of bimodal parameter and predictive probability distributions. The new methodologies are demonstrated by calibrating a Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model against a time series of daily flows. Comparison with the SCE-UA method in this calibration context demonstrates a high level of comparative model run efficiency for the new method. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.