Searching for convergence in phylogenetic Markov chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a methodology that is gaining widespread use in the phylogenetics community and is central to phylogenetic software packages such as MrBayes. An important issue for users of MCMC methods is how to select appropriate values for adjustable parameters such as the length of the Markov chain or chains, the sampling density, the proposal mechanism, and, if Metropolis-coupled MCMC is being used, the number of heated chains and their temperatures. Although some parameter settings have been examined in detail in the literature, others are frequently chosen with more regard to computational time or personal experience with other data sets. Such choices may lead to inadequate sampling of tree space or an inefficient use of computational resources. We performed a detailed study of convergence and mixing for 70 randomly selected, putatively orthologous protein sets with different sizes and taxonomic compositions. Replicated runs from multiple random starting points permit a more rigorous assessment of convergence, and we developed two novel statistics, delta and epsilon, for this purpose. Although likelihood values invariably stabilized quickly, adequate sampling of the posterior distribution of tree topologies took considerably longer. Our results suggest that multimodality is common for data sets with 30 or more taxa and that this results in slow convergence and mixing. However, we also found that the pragmatic approach of combining data from several short, replicated runs into a metachain to estimate bipartition posterior probabilities provided good approximations, and that such estimates were no worse in approximating a reference posterior distribution than those obtained using a single long run of the same length as the metachain. Precision appears to be best when heated Markov chains have low temperatures, whereas chains with high temperatures appear to sample trees with high posterior probabilities only rarely. [Bayesian phylogenetic inference; heating parameter; Markov chain Monte Carlo; replicated chains.]

Searching for schizophrenia in ancient Greek and Roman literature: A systematic review

Objective: The aim of this study was to systematically examine ancient Roman and Greek texts to identify descriptions of schizophrenia and related disorders. Method: Material from Greek and Roman literature dating from the 5th Century BC to the beginning of the 2nd Century AD was systematically reviewed for symptoms of mental illness. DSM IV criteria were applied in order to identify material related to schizophrenia and related disorders. Results: The general public had an awareness of psychotic disorders, because the symptoms were described in works of fiction and in historical accounts of malingering. There were isolated instances of text related to psychotic symptoms in the residents of ancient Rome and Greece, but no written material describing a condition that would meet modern diagnostic criteria for schizophrenia. Conclusion: In contrast to many other psychiatric disorders that are represented in ancient Greek and Roman literature, there were no descriptions of individuals with schizophrenia in the material assessed in this review.

Quantitative justification for target concentration intervention - parameter variability and predictive performance using population pharmacokinetic models for aminoglycosides

Aims [1] To quantify the random and predictable components of variability for aminoglycoside clearance and volume of distribution [2] To investigate models for predicting aminoglycoside clearance in patients with low serum creatinine concentrations [3] To evaluate the predictive performance of initial dosing strategies for achieving an aminoglycoside target concentration. Methods Aminoglycoside demographic, dosing and concentration data were collected from 697 adult patients (>=20 years old) as part of standard clinical care using a target concentration intervention approach for dose individualization. It was assumed that aminoglycoside clearance had a renal and a nonrenal component, with the renal component being linearly related to predicted creatinine clearance. Results A two compartment pharmacokinetic model best described the aminoglycoside data. The addition of weight, age, sex and serum creatinine as covariates reduced the random component of between subject variability (BSVR) in clearance (CL) from 94% to 36% of population parameter variability (PPV). The final pharmacokinetic parameter estimates for the model with the best predictive performance were: CL, 4.7 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); intercompartmental clearance (CLic), 1 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); volume of central compartment (V-1), 19.5 l 70 kg(-1); volume of peripheral compartment (V-2) 11.2 l 70 kg(-1). Conclusions Using a fixed dose of aminoglycoside will achieve 35% of typical patients within 80-125% of a required dose. Covariate guided predictions increase this up to 61%. However, because we have shown that random within subject variability (WSVR) in clearance is less than safe and effective variability (SEV), target concentration intervention can potentially achieve safe and effective doses in 90% of patients.

Searching oligo sets of human chromosome 12 using evolutionary strategies

DNA Microarray is a powerful tool to measure the level of a mixed population of nucleic acids at one time, which has great impact in many aspects of life sciences research. In order to distinguish nucleic acids with very similar composition by hybridization, it is necessary to design microarray probes with high specificities and sensitivities. Highly specific probes correspond to probes having unique DNA sequences; whereas highly sensitive probes correspond to those with melting temperature within a desired range and having no secondary structure. The selection of these probes from a set of functional DNA sequences (exons) constitutes a computationally expensive discrete non-linear search problem. We delegate the search task to a simple yet effective Evolution Strategy algorithm. The computational efficiency is also greatly improved by making use of an available bioinformatics tool.

The HIPASS catalogue - II. Completeness reliability and parameter accuracy

The H I Parkes All Sky Survey (HIPASS) is a blind extragalactic H I 21-cm emission-line survey covering the whole southern sky from declination -90degrees to +25degrees. The HIPASS catalogue (HICAT), containing 4315 H I-selected galaxies from the region south of declination +2degrees, is presented in Meyer et al. (Paper I). This paper describes in detail the completeness and reliability of HICAT, which are calculated from the recovery rate of synthetic sources and follow-up observations, respectively. HICAT is found to be 99 per cent complete at a peak flux of 84 mJy and an integrated flux of 9.4 Jy km. s(-1). The overall reliability is 95 per cent, but rises to 99 per cent for sources with peak fluxes >58 mJy or integrated flux >8.2 Jy km s(-1). Expressions are derived for the uncertainties on the most important HICAT parameters: peak flux, integrated flux, velocity width and recessional velocity. The errors on HICAT parameters are dominated by the noise in the HIPASS data, rather than by the parametrization procedure.

Comparison of the R-70 self-heating rate of New Zealand and Australian coals to Suggate rank parameter

Samples from New Zealand and Australia have been tested in an adiabatic oven to assess the effect of rank on the R-70 selfheating rate of coal. A non-linear relationship can be defined for coals from both countries using the revised Suggate rank (S-r) parameter. Subbituminous coals have the highest R-70 self-heating rate values, which are 20 times that of high volatile A bituminous coals on a dry mineral matter free basis (similar to 1 cf. 20 degrees C h(-1)). However, the moderating effects of moisture and mineral matter can reduce this difference to only 2-3 times for coal in-situ. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Optimal design for model discrimination and parameter estimation for itraconazole population pharmacokinetics in cystic fibrosis patients

Optimal sampling times are found for a study in which one of the primary purposes is to develop a model of the pharmacokinetics of itraconazole in patients with cystic fibrosis for both capsule and solution doses. The optimal design is expected to produce reliable estimates of population parameters for two different structural PK models. Data collected at these sampling times are also expected to provide the researchers with sufficient information to reasonably discriminate between the two competing structural models.

Advances in distributed parameter approach to the dynamics and control of activated sludge processes for wastewater treatment

This paper presents a review of modelling and control of biological nutrient removal (BNR)-activated sludge processes for wastewater treatment using distributed parameter models described by partial differential equations (PDE). Numerical methods for solution to the BNR-activated sludge process dynamics are reviewed and these include method of lines, global orthogonal collocation and orthogonal collocation on finite elements. Fundamental techniques and conceptual advances of the distributed parameter approach to the dynamics and control of activated sludge processes are briefly described. A critical analysis on the advantages of the distributed parameter approach over the conventional modelling strategy in this paper shows that the activated sludge process is more adequately described by the former and the method is recommended for application to the wastewater industry (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Searching for the trace: The influence of age, lexical activation and working memory on sentence processing

To investigate the stability of trace reactivation in healthy older adults, 22 older volunteers with no significant neurological history participated in a cross-modal priming task. Whilst both object relative center embedded (ORC) and object relative right branching (ORR) sentences is-ere employed, working memory load was reduced by limiting the number of wordy separating the antecedent front the gap for both sentence types. Analysis of the results did not reveal any significant trace reactivation for the ORC or ORR sentences. The results did reveal, however, a positive correlation between age and semantic printing at the pre-gap position and a negative correlation between age and semantic printing at the gap position for ORC sentences. In contrast, there was no correlation between age and priming effects for the ORR sentences. These results indicated that trace reactivation may be sensitive to a variety of age related factors, including lexical activation and working memory. The implications of these results for sentence processing in the older population arc discussed.

On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Searching for cancer deaths in Australia: National Death Index vs Cancer Registries

OBJECTIVE: To compare the accuracy, costs and utility of using the National Death Index (NDI) and state-based cancer registries in determining the mortality status of a cohort of women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in the early 1990s. METHODS: As part of a large prognostic study, identifying information on 822 women diagnosed with ovarian cancer between 1990 and 1993, was simultaneously submitted to the NDI and three state-based cancer registries to identify deceased women as of June 30, 1999. This was compared to the gold standard of "definite deaths". A comparative evaluation was also made of the time and costs associated with the two methods. RESULTS: Of the 450 definite deaths in our cohort the NDI correctly identified 417 and all of the 372 women known to be alive (sensitivity 93%, specificity 100%). Inconsistencies in identifiers recorded in our cohort files, particularly names, were responsible for the majority of known deaths not matching with the NDI, and if eliminated would increase the sensitivity to 98%. The cancer registries correctly identified 431 of the 450 definite deaths (sensitivity 96%). The costs associated with the NDI search were the same as the cancer registry searches, but the cancer registries took two months longer to conduct the searches. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: This study indicates that the cancer registries are valuable, cost effective agencies for follow-up of mortality outcome in cancer cohorts, particularly where cohort members were residents of those states. For following large national cohorts the NDI provides additional information and flexibility when searching for deaths in Australia. This study also shows that women can be followed up for mortality with a high degree of accuracy using either service. Because each service makes a valuable contribution to the identification of deceased cancer subjects, both should be considered for optimal mortality follow-up in studies of cancer patients.