The oil shock of 2005

During the course of 2005, the price of crude oil reached unprecedented high levels, at least in nominal terms. Australian motorists have become used to paying more than a dollar a litre for petrol. Given the past volatility in oil prices, often described in terms of a series of oil ‘shocks’ (the large price increases in 1973, 1979 and 1999), several questions arise. First, will current high prices persist, or will prices decline substantially as occurred after previous oil shocks? Second, is the current shortage of oil a temporary phenomenon, caused by inadequate investment in oil exploration, drilling and refining capacity, or is it a signal that the supply of oil available to the world has peaked? Third, will high oil prices lead to broader economic disruption, as is commonly supposed to have happened after previous shocks? Fourth, how painful will an adjustment to lower use of oil be? Finally, how does all this relate to our efforts to deal with the problem of climate change? This article is an effort to answer some of these questions in the light of the knowledge available to us.

Similarity solution of axisymmetric flow in porous media

Applications of the axisymmetric Boussinesq equation to groundwater hydrology and reservoir engineering have long been recognised. An archetypal example is invasion by drilling fluid into a permeable bed where there is initially no such fluid present, a circumstance of some importance in the oil industry. It is well known that the governing Boussinesq model can be reduced to a nonlinear ordinary differential equation using a similarity variable, a transformation that is valid for a certain time-dependent flux at the origin. Here, a new analytical approximation is obtained for this case. The new solution,, which has a simple form, is demonstrated to be highly accurate. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.