Use of a probabilistic neural network to reduce costs of selecting construction rock

Rocks used as construction aggregate in temperate climates deteriorate to differing degrees because of repeated freezing and thawing. The magnitude of the deterioration depends on the rock's properties. Aggregate, including crushed carbonate rock, is required to have minimum geotechnical qualities before it can be used in asphalt and concrete. In order to reduce chances of premature and expensive repairs, extensive freeze-thaw tests are conducted on potential construction rocks. These tests typically involve 300 freeze-thaw cycles and can take four to five months to complete. Less time consuming tests that (1) predict durability as well as the extended freeze-thaw test or that (2) reduce the number of rocks subject to the extended test, could save considerable amounts of money. Here we use a probabilistic neural network to try and predict durability as determined by the freeze-thaw test using four rock properties measured on 843 limestone samples from the Kansas Department of Transportation. Modified freeze-thaw tests and less time consuming specific gravity (dry), specific gravity (saturated), and modified absorption tests were conducted on each sample. Durability factors of 95 or more as determined from the extensive freeze-thaw tests are viewed as acceptable—rocks with values below 95 are rejected. If only the modified freeze-thaw test is used to predict which rocks are acceptable, about 45% are misclassified. When 421 randomly selected samples and all four standardized and scaled variables were used to train aprobabilistic neural network, the rate of misclassification of 422 independent validation samples dropped to 28%. The network was trained so that each class (group) and each variable had its own coefficient (sigma). In an attempt to reduce errors further, an additional class was added to the training data to predict durability values greater than 84 and less than 98, resulting in only 11% of the samples misclassified. About 43% of the test data was classed by the neural net into the middle group—these rocks should be subject to full freeze-thaw tests. Thus, use of the probabilistic neural network would meanthat the extended test would only need be applied to 43% of the samples, and 11% of the rocks classed as acceptable would fail early.

Monitoring green turtles (Chelonia mydas) at a coastal foraging area in Baja California, Mexico: multiple indices to describe population status

From June 1995 to August 2002 we assessed green turtle (Chelonia mydas) population structure and survival, and identified human impact, at Bahia de los Angeles, a large bay that was once the site of the greatest sea turtle harvest rates in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Turtles were captured live with entanglement nets and mortality was quantified through stranding surveys and flipper tag recoveries. A total of 14,820 netting hours (617.5 d) resulted in 255 captures of 200 green turtles. Straight-carapace length and mass ranged from 46.0-100.0 cm (mean = 74.3 +/- 0.7 cm) and 14.5-145.0 kg (mean = 61.5 +/- 1.7 kg), respectively. The size-frequency distribution remained stable during all years and among all capture locations. Anthropogenic-derived injuries ranging from missing flippers to boat propeller scars were present in 4% of captured turtles. Remains of 18 turtles were found at dumpsites, nine stranded turtles were encountered in the study area, and flipper tags from seven turtles were recovered. Survival was estimated at 0.58 for juveniles and 0.97 for adults using a joint live-recapture and dead-recovery model (Burnham model). Low survival among juveniles, declining annual catch per unit effort, and the presence of butchered carcasses indicated human activities continue to impact green turtles at this foraging area.

Differences in mail and telephone responses to self-rated health: use of multiple imputation in correcting for response bias

Objectives: To estimate differences in self-rated health by mode of administration and to assess the value of multiple imputation to make self-rated health comparable for telephone and mail. Methods: In 1996, Survey 1 of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health was answered by mail. In 1998, 706 and 11,595 mid-age women answered Survey 2 by telephone and mail respectively. Self-rated health was measured by the physical and mental health scores of the SF-36. Mean change in SF-36 scores between Surveys 1 and 2 were compared for telephone and mail respondents to Survey 2, before and after adjustment for socio-demographic and health characteristics. Missing values and SF-36 scores for telephone respondents at Survey 2 were imputed from SF-36 mail responses and telephone and mail responses to socio-demographic and health questions. Results: At Survey 2, self-rated health improved for telephone respondents but not mail respondents. After adjustment, mean changes in physical health and mental health scores remained higher (0.4 and 1.6 respectively) for telephone respondents compared with mail respondents (-1.2 and 0.1 respectively). Multiple imputation yielded adjusted changes in SF-36 scores that were similar for telephone and mail respondents. Conclusions and Implications: The effect of mode of administration on the change in mental health is important given that a difference of two points in SF-36 scores is accepted as clinically meaningful. Health evaluators should be aware of and adjust for the effects of mode of administration on self-rated health. Multiple imputation is one method that may be used to adjust SF-36 scores for mode of administration bias.

Random error in willingness to pay measurement: A multiple indicators, latent variable approach to the reliability of contingent values

The reliability of measurement refers to unsystematic error in observed responses. Investigations of the prevalence of random error in stated estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) are important to an understanding of why tests of validity in CV can fail. However, published reliability studies have tended to adopt empirical methods that have practical and conceptual limitations when applied to WTP responses. This contention is supported in a review of contingent valuation reliability studies that demonstrate important limitations of existing approaches to WTP reliability. It is argued that empirical assessments of the reliability of contingent values may be better dealt with by using multiple indicators to measure the latent WTP distribution. This latent variable approach is demonstrated with data obtained from a WTP study for stormwater pollution abatement. Attitude variables were employed as a way of assessing the reliability of open-ended WTP (with benchmarked payment cards) for stormwater pollution abatement. The results indicated that participants' decisions to pay were reliably measured, but not the magnitude of the WTP bids. This finding highlights the need to better discern what is actually being measured in VVTP studies, (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Technological and financial approaches to risk management in agriculture: an integrated approach

In the present paper, risk-management problems where farmers manage risk both through production decisions and through the use of market-based and informal risk-management mechanisms are considered. It is shown that many of these problems share a common structure, and that a unified and informative treatment of a broad spectrum of risk-management tools is possible within a cost-minimisation framework, under minimal conditions on their objective functions. Fundamental results are derived that apply regardless of the producer's preference towards risks, using only the no-arbitrage condition that agricultural producers never forego any opportunity to lower costs without lowering returns.

Metamorphosis of a scleractinian coral in response to microbial biofilms

Microorganisms have been reported to induce settlement and metamorphosis in a wide range of marine invertebrate species. However, the primary cue reported for metamorphosis of coral larvae is calcareous coralline algae (CCA). Herein we report the community structure of developing coral reef biofilms and the potential role they play in triggering the metamorphosis of a scleractinian coral. Two-week-old biofilms induced metamorphosis in less than 10% of larvae, whereas metamorphosis increased significantly on older biofilms, with a maximum of 41% occurring on 8-week-old microbial films. There was a significant influence of depth in 4- and 8-week biofilms, with greater levels of metamorphosis occurring in response to shallow-water communities. Importantly, larvae were found to settle and metamorphose in response to microbial biofilms lacking CCA from both shallow and deep treatments, indicating that microorganisms not associated with CCA may play a significant role in coral metamorphosis. A polyphasic approach consisting of scanning electron microscopy, fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) revealed that coral reef biofilms were comprised of complex bacterial and microalgal communities which were distinct at each depth and time. Principal-component analysis of FISH data showed that the Alphaproteobacteria, Betaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, and Cytophaga-Flavobacterium of Bacteroidetes had the largest influence on overall community composition. A low abundance of Archaea was detected in almost all biofilms, providing the first report of Archaea associated with coral reef biofilms. No differences in the relative densities of each subdivision of Proteobacteria were observed between slides that induced larval metamorphosis and those that did not. Comparative cluster analysis of bacterial DGGE patterns also revealed that there were clear age and depth distinctions in biofilm community structure; however, no difference was detected in banding profiles between biofilms which induced larval metamorphosis and those where no metamorphosis occurred. This investigation demonstrates that complex microbial communities can induce coral metamorphosis in the absence of CCA.

The origin of the pelagobenthic metazoan life cycle: what's sex got to do with it?

The biphasic (pelagobenthic) life cycle is found throughout the animal kingdom, and includes gametogenesis, embryogenesis, and metamorphosis. From a tangled web of hypotheses on the origin and evolution of the metazoan pelagobenthic life cycle, current opinion appears to favor a simple, larval-like holopelagic ancestor that independently settled multiple times to incorporate a benthic phase into the life cycle. This hypothesis derives originally from Haeckel's (1874) Gastraea theory of ontogeny recapitulating phylogeny, in which the gastrula is viewed as the recapitulation of a gastracan ancestor that evolved via selection on a simple, planktonic hollow ball of cells to develop the capacity to feed. Here, we propose an equally plausible hypothesis that the origin of the metazoan pelagobenthic life cycle was a direct consequence of sexual reproduction in a likely holobenthic ancestor. In doing so, we take into account new insights from poriferan development and from molecular phylogenies. In this scenario, the gastrula does not represent a recapitulation, but simply an embryological stage that is an outcome of sexual reproduction. The embryo can itself be considered as the precursor to a biphasic lifestyle, with the embryo representing one phase and the adult another phase. This hypothesis is more parsimonious because it precludes the need for multiple, independent origins of the benthic form. It is then reasonable to consider that multilayered, ciliated embryos ultimately released into the water column are subject to natural selection for dispersal/longevity/feeding that sets them on the evolutionary trajectory towards the crown metazoan planktonic larvae. These new insights from poriferan development thus clearly support the intercalation hypothesis of bilaterian larval evolution, which we now believe should be extended to discussions of the origin of biphasy in the metazoan last common ancestor.