Is mortality from heart failure increasing in Australia? An analysis of official data on mortality for 1997-2003

Objective To assess whether trends in mortality from heart failure(HF) in Australia are due to a change in awareness of the condition or real changes in its epidemiology. Methods We carried out a retrospective analysis of official data on national mortality data between 1997 and 2003. A death was attributed to HF if the death certificate mentioned HF as either the underlying cause of death (UCD) or among the contributory factors. Findings From a total of 907 242 deaths, heart failure was coded as the UCD for 29 341 (3.2%) and was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate in 135 268 (14.9%). Between 1997 and 2003, there were decreases in the absolute numbers of deaths and in the age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for HF either as UCD or mentioned anywhere for both sexes. HF was mentioned for 24.6% and 17.8% of deaths attributed to ischaemic heart disease and circulatory disease, respectively, and these proportions remained unchanged over the period of study. In addition, HF as UCD accounted for 8.3% of deaths attributed to circulatory disease and this did not change materially from 1997 to 2003. Conclusion The decline in mortality from HF measured as either number of deaths or rate probably reflects a real change in the epidemiology of HF. Population-based studies are required to determine accurately the contributions of changes in incidence, survival and demographic factors to the evolving epidemiology of HF.

Experimental analysis of the influence of pest management practice on the efficacy of an endemic arthropod natural enemy complex of the diamondback moth.

Maximizing the contribution of endemic natural enemies to integrated pest management (IPM) programs requires a detailed knowledge of their interactions with the target pest. This experimental field study evaluated the impact of the endemic natural enemy complex of Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae) on pest populations in commercial cabbage crops in southeastern Queensland, Australia. Management data were used to score pest management practices at experimental sites on independent Brassica farms practicing a range of pest management strategies, and mechanical methods of natural enemy exclusion were used to assess the impact of natural enemies on introduced cohorts of P. xylostella at each site. Natural enemy impact was greatest at sites adopting IPM and least at sites practicing conventional pest management strategies. At IPM sites, the contribution of natural enemies to P. xylostella mortality permitted the cultivation of marketable crops with no yield loss but with a substantial reduction in insecticide inputs. Three species of larval parasitoids (Diadegma semiclausum Hellen [Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae], Apanteles ippeus Nixon [Hymenoptera: Braconidae], and Oomyzus sokolowskii Kurdjumov [Hymenoptera: Eulophidae]) and one species of pupal parasitoid Diadromus collaris Gravenhorst (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) attacked immature P. xylostella. The most abundant groups of predatory arthropods caught in pitfall traps were Araneae (Lycosidae) > Coleoptera (Carabidae, Coccinelidae, Staphylinidae) > Neuroptera (Chrysopidae) > Formicidae, whereas on crop foliage Araneae (Clubionidae, Oxyopidae) > Coleoptera (Coccinelidae) > Neuroptera (Chrysopidae) were most common. The abundance and diversity of natural enemies was greatest at sites that adopted IPM, correlating greater P. xylostella mortality at these sites. The efficacy of the natural enemy complex to pest mortality under different pest management regimes and appropriate strategies to optimize this important natural resource are discussed.

Cost of an emerging epidemic: an economic analysis of atrial fibrillation in the UK

Objective: To evaluate the cost of atrial fibrillation (AF) to health and social services in the UK in 1995 and, based on epidemiological trends, to project this estimate to 2000. Design, setting, and main outcome measures: Contemporary estimates of health care activity related to AF were applied to the whole population of the UK on an age and sex specific basis for the year 1995. The activities considered ( and costs calculated) were hospital admissions, outpatient consultations, general practice consultations, and drug treatment ( including the cost of monitoring anticoagulant treatment). By adjusting for the progressive aging of the British population and related increases in hospital admissions, the cost of AF was also projected to the year 2000. Results: There were 534 000 people with AF in the UK during 1995. The direct'' cost of health care for these patients was pound 244 million (similar toE350 million) or 0.62% of total National Health Service ( NHS) expenditure. Hospitalisations and drug prescriptions accounted for 50% and 20% of this expenditure, respectively. Long term nursing home care after hospital admission cost an additional pound46.4 million (similar toE66 million). The direct cost of AF rose to pound459 million (similar toE655 million) in 2000, equivalent to 0.97% of total NHS expenditure based on 1995 figures. Nursing home costs rose to pound111 million (similar toE160 million). Conclusions: AF is an extremely costly public health problem.

Quality assurance of paediatric cardiac surgery: A prospective 6-year analysis

Objective: To audit effective quality assurance methods to monitor outcomes following paediatric cardiac surgery at a single institution. Methods: All patients undergoing cardiac surgery from January 1996 to December 2001 were enrolled prospectively. Patients were stratified by complexity of surgical procedure into four groups, with Category 4 being the most complex procedure. Outcome measures included death, length of admission and morbidity from complications. Results: A total of 1815 patients underwent 1973 surgical procedures. Of these, 1447 (73.3%) were cardiopulmonary bypass procedures, and 543 (27.5%) were more complex (Category 3 and 4) procedures. Median patient age was 3.5 years (range, 1 day-20 years) and patient weight 15.0 kg (range, 900 g to 90 kg). Sixty-six patients (3.6%) died during the study period. Of the procedures in 1996, 22.7% were classified as complex compared with 29.2% of procedures in 2001. The annual surgical mortality ranged from 1.9-4.7% (P=0.20), and when mortality was adjusted for complexity of surgery, there was no significant yearly variation in the mortality rate (P=0.57). Analysis of individual surgeon's results showed no significant difference in the mortality rate by complexity of surgery performed (P=0.90). Mean ventilation times did not change significantly over time (P=0.79). The yearly incidence of significant neurological complications ranged from 0.6% to 4.5% and the incidence of arrhythmias from 4.2% to 8.0%. No difference was detected between the years. Conclusions: Stratifying complexity of surgery proved valuable in monitoring surgical outcomes and detecting differences in performance over time as large subgroups were created for analysis.

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

In the United States and several other countries., the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including. a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to. model disease explicitly.

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Lifestyle still predicts mortality in older men with established vascular disease

Background. It is uncertain whether accepted associations between health behaviors and mortality are pertinent to elderly people. No previous studies have examined the patterns of lifestyle in elderly men with and without clinically evident vascular disease by using a lifestyle score to predict survival. Methods. We measured prevalence of a healthy lifestyle (four or more healthy behaviors out of eight) and examined survival in 11,745 men aged 65-83 years participating in a randomized population-based trial of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Perth, Western Australia. After stratifying participants into five groups according to history and symptoms of vascular disease, we compared survival of men in each subgroup with that of 'healthy' men with no history or symptoms of vascular disease. Results. Invitations to screening produced a corrected response of 70.5%. After adjusting for age and place of birth, having an unhealthy lifestyle was associated with an increase of 20% in the likelihood of death from any cause within 5 years (95% CI: 10-30%). This pattern was consistently evident across subgroups defined by history of vascular disease, but was less evident for deaths from vascular disease. Conclusions. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining a healthy lifestyle through to old age, regardless of history of vascular disease. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cold periods and coronary events: an analysis of populations worldwide

Study objective: To investigate the association between cold periods and coronary events, and the extent to which climate, sex, age, and previous cardiac history increase risk during cold weather. Design: A hierarchical analyses of populations from the World Health Organisation's MONICA project. Setting: Twenty four populations from the WHO's MONICA project, a 21 country register made between 1980 and 1995. Patients: People aged 35 - 64 years who had a coronary event. Main results: Daily rates of coronary events were correlated with the average temperature over the current and previous three days. In cold periods, coronary event rates increased more in populations living in warm climates than in populations living in cold climates, where the increases were slight. The increase was greater in women than in men, especially in warm climates. On average, the odds for women having an event in the cold periods were 1.07 higher than the odds for men (95% posterior interval: 1.03 to 1.11). The effects of cold periods were similar in those with and without a history of a previous myocardial infarction. Conclusions: Rates of coronary events increased during comparatively cold periods, especially in warm climates. The smaller increases in colder climates suggest that some events in warmer climates are preventable. It is suggested that people living in warm climates, particularly women, should keep warm on cold days.

Excess in cardiovascular events on mondays: a meta-analysis analysis and prospective study

The aim of this paper was to summarise the reported excess in coronary events on Mondays, and examine the evidence for three competing explanations: stress, alcohol consumption, or registration errors. A review of the literature found 28 studies covering 16 countries and over 1.6 million coronary events. The overall Monday excess was small; in a population experiencing 100 coronary events per week there was one more event on Monday than other days. The excess was larger in men and in studies including sudden cardiac death or cardiac arrests. In a prospective study an increase in events on Mondays was associated with greater alcohol consumption, lower rainfall, and the month of January. The excess in coronary events on Mondays is a persistent phenomenon. The size of the effect varies widely between populations. There is some evidence of an association with alcohol consumption, but a definitive explanation remains elusive and is likely to remain so because of the smallness of the effect and the paucity of high quality data.

Disease risk and mortality prediction in intensive care patients with pneumonia. Australian and New Zealand practice in intensive care (ANZPIC II)

This study of ventilated patients investigated pneumonia risk factors and outcome predictors in 476 episodes of pneumonia (48% community-acquired pneumonia, 24% hospital-acquired pneumonia, 28% ventilator-associated pneumonia) using a prospective survey in 14 intensive care units within Australia and New Zealand. For community acquired pneumonia, mortality increased with immunosuppression (OR 5.32, CI 95% 1.58-17.99, P < 0. 01), clinical signs of consolidation (OR 2.43, CI 95% 1.09-5.44, P = 0. 03) and Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores (OR 1.19, CI 95% 1.08-1.30, P < 0. 001) but improved if appropriate antibiotic changes were made within three days of intensive care unit admission (OR 0.42, CI 95% 0.20-0.86, P = 0.02). For hospital-acquired pneumonia, immunosuppression (OR 6.98, CI 95% 1.16-42.2, P = 0.03) and non-metastatic cancer (OR 3.78, CI 95% 1.20-11.93, P = 0.02) were the principal mortality predictors. Alcoholism (OR 7.80, CI 95% 1.20-1750, P < 0.001), high SOFA scores (OR 1.44, CI 95% 1.20-1.75, P = 0.001) and the isolation of high risk organisms including Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter spp, Stenotrophomonas spp and methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (OR 4.79, CI 95% 1.43-16.03, P = 0.01), were associated with increased mortality in ventilator-associated pneumonia. The use of non-invasive ventilation was independently protective against mortality for patients with community-acquired and hospital-acquired pneumonia (OR 0.35, CI 95% 0.18-0.68, P = 0.002). Mortality was similar for patients requiting both invasive and non-invasive ventilation and non-invasive ventilation alone (21% compared with 20% respectively, P = 0.56). Pneumonia risks and mortality predictors in Australian and New Zealand ICUs vary with pneumonia type. A history of alcoholism is a major risk factor for mortality in ventilator-associated pneumonia, greater in magnitude than the mortality effect of immunosuppression in hospital-acquired pneumonia or community-acquired pneumonia. Non-invasive ventilation is associated with reduced ICU mortality. Clinical signs of consolidation worsen, while rationalising antibiotic therapy within three days of ICU admission improves mortality for community-acquired pneumonia patients.

Carvedilol reduces the costs of medical care in severe heart failure: An economic analysis of the COPERNICUS study applied to the United Kingdom

Background: The aim of this study was to determine the effects of carvedilol on the costs related to the treatment of severe chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods: Costs for the treatment for heart failure within the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom (UK) were applied to resource utilisation data prospectively collected in all patients randomized into the Carvedilol Prospective Randomized Cumulative Survival (COPERNICUS) Study. Unit-specific, per them (hospital bed day) costs were used to calculate expenditures due to hospitalizations. We also included costs of carvedilol treatment, general practitioner surgery/office visits, hospital out-patient clinic visits and nursing home care based on estimates derived from validated patterns of clinical practice in the UK. Results: The estimated cost of carvedilol therapy and related ambulatory care for the 1156 patients assigned to active treatment was 530,771 pound (44.89 pound per patient/month of follow-up). However, patients assigned to carvedilol were hospitalised less often and accumulated fewer and less expensive days of admission. Consequently, the total estimated cost of hospital care was 3.49 pound million in the carvedilol group compared with 4.24 pound million for the 1133 patients in the placebo arm. The cost of post-discharge care was also less in the carvedilol than in the placebo group (479,200 pound vs. 548,300) pound. Overall, the cost per patient treated in the carvedilol group was 3948 pound compared to 4279 pound in the placebo group. This equated to a cost of 385.98 pound vs. 434.18 pound, respectively, per patient/month of follow-up: an 11.1% reduction in health care costs in favour of carvedilol. Conclusions: These findings suggest that not only can carvedilol treatment increase survival and reduce hospital admissions in patients with severe CHF but that it can also cut costs in the process.

Progesterone supplementation for preventing preterm birth: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Aim. The aim of this study is to assess the role of progesterone in preterm birth prevention. Methods. A MEDLINE search (from 1966 to the present; date of last search January 2005) was performed - using the key words progesterone, pregnancy, preterm birth, preterm labor, and randomized, controlled trial - in order to identify randomized, controlled trials in which progesterone (either intramuscular or vaginal administration) was compared with placebo or no treatment. Data were extracted and a meta-analysis was performed. Results. Seven randomized, controlled trials were identified. Women who received progesterone were statistically significantly less likely to give birth before 37 weeks (seven studies, 1020 women, RR = 0.58, 95% CI = 0.48-0.70), to have an infant with birth weight of