Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Coral mortality increases wave energy reaching shores protected by reef flats: Examples from the Seychelles

In the granitic Seychelles, many shores and beaches are fringed by coral reef flats which provide protection to shores from erosion by waves. The surfaces of these reef flats support a complex ecology. About 10 years ago their seaward zones were extensively covered by a rich coral growth, which reached approximately to mean low water level, but in 1998 this was largely killed by seawater warming. The resulting large expanses of dead coral skeletons in these locations are now disintegrating, and much of the subsequent modest recovery by new coral recruitment was set back by further mortalities. A mathematical model of wave energy reaching shorelines protected by coral reef flats has been applied to 14 Seychelles reefs. It is derived from equations which predict: (1) the raised water level, or wave set-up, on reef flats resulting from wave breaking, which depends upon offshore wave height and period, depth of still water over the reef flat and the reef crest profile, and (2) the decay of energy from reef edge to shoreline that is affected by width of reef flat, surface roughness, sea level rise and 'pseudo-sea level rise' created by increased depth resulting from disintegration of coral colonies. The model treats each reef as one entity, but because biota and zonation on reef flats are not homogenous, all reefs are divided into four zones. In each, cover by both living and dead biota was estimated for calculation of parameters, and then averaged to obtain input data for the model. All possible biological factors were taken into account, such as the ability of seagrass beds to grow upwards to match expected sea level rise, reduction in height of the reef flat in relation to sea level as zones of dead corals decay, and the observed 'rounding' of reef crests as erosion removes corals from those areas. Estimates were also made of all these factors for a time approximately a decade ago, representing a time before the mass coral mortality, and for approximately a decade in the future when the observed rapid state of dead coral colony disintegration is assumed to have reached an end point. Results of increased energy over the past decade explain observations of erosion in some sites in the Seychelles. Most importantly, it is estimated that the rise in energy reaching shores protected by fringing reefs will now accelerate more rapidly, such that the increase expected over the next decade will be approximately double than that seen over the past decade. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Embryonic mortality in buffaloes synchronized and mated by AI during the seasonal decline in reproductive function

The aim was to determine the factors that contribute to embryonic mortality in buffaloes mated by AI during a period of increasing day length which corresponds to a natural decline in reproductive activity. Italian Mediterranean buffalo cows (n = 243) showing regular estrous cycles were synchronized using the Ovsynch-TAI program and mated by AI at 16 and 40 h after the second injection of GnRH. Blood samples were collected on Days 10 and 20 after the first AI and assayed for progesterone (P-4). Pregnancy diagnosis was undertaken on Days 26 and 40 after the first AI using rectal ultrasonography. Buffaloes with a conceptus on Day 26 but not on Day 40 were judged to have undergone embryonic mortality and for these animals uterine fluid was recovered by flushing and analysed for common infectious agents. Estrus synchronization was achieved in 86% of buffaloes and the pregnancy rate on Day 40 was 34%. Embryonic mortality between Days 26 and 40 occurred in 45% of buffaloes and was associated with the presence of significant infectious agents in only 10 buffaloes (8%). Concentrations of P-4 on Day 10 after AI were higher (P < 0.05) in buffaloes that established a pregnancy than in buffaloes that showed embryonic mortality that was not associated with infectious agents. Similarly, on Day 20 after AI P-4 concentrations were higher (P < 0.01) in pregnant buffaloes compared with non-pregnant buffaloes and buffaloes that had embryonic mortality. It is concluded that a reduced capacity for P-4 secretion can explain around 50% of embryonic mortalities in buffaloes synchronised and mated by AI during a period of low reproductive activity and that other as yet unidentified factors also have a significant effect on embryonic survival. (c) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A review of the potential role of tumour-promoting compounds produced by Lyngbya majuscula in marine turtle fibropapillomatosis

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have increased in abundance and severity in recent decades. Whereas the implications for human impacts and intoxication resulting from blooms have been extensively studied, the ecological implications of these microalgae are less well understood. Many HAB species produce biologically active, secondary metabolites and the fate of these toxins through the foodweb is generally not well understood unless it culminates in extensive fish mortalities or human poisonings. This review focusses on one HAB species, the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula, and presents a hypothetical role for its involvement in fibro-papillornatosis (FP), a neoplastic disease of marine turtles. FP is expressed as benign tumours that grow both internally and externally on marine turtles, preventing vision, movement and organ function. The aetiology of FP is currently not conclusively understood, but virus material has been associated with tumours and previous studies have suggested a role for naturally produced tumour promoters. In this review, we present a hypothesis regarding the involvement of L. majuscula in FP, either through direct intoxication and action of tumour-promoting compounds or indirectly by causing seagrass loss and compromised immune function, thus leaving the turtles more susceptible to disease.

Emerging henipaviruses and flying foxes - Conservation and management perspectives

Wildlife populations are affected by a series of emerging diseases, some of which pose a significant threat to their conservation. They can also be reservoirs of pathogens that threaten domestic animal and human health. In this paper, we review the ecology of two viruses that have caused significant disease in domestic animals and humans and are carried by wild fruit bats in Asia and Australia. The first, Hendra virus, has caused disease in horses and/or humans in Australia every five years since it first emerged in 1994. Nipah virus has caused a major outbreak of disease in pigs and humans in Malaysia in the late 1990s and has also caused human mortalities in Bangladesh annually since 2001. Increased knowledge of fruit bat population dynamics and disease ecology will help improve our understanding of processes driving the emergence of diseases from bats. For this, a transdisciplinary approach is required to develop appropriate host management strategies that both maximise the conservation of bat populations as well as minimise the risk of disease outbreaks in domestic animals and humans. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal dynamics of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus infection in a low-density population of wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in New Zealand

A longitudinal capture-mark-recapture study was conducted to determine the temporal dynamics of rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) in a European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) population of low to moderate density on sand-hill country in the lower North Island of New Zealand. A combination of sampling ( trapping and radio-tracking) and diagnostic (cELISA, PCR and isotype ELISA) methods was employed to obtain data weekly from May 1998 until June 2001. Although rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus ( RHDV) infection was detected in the study population in all 3 years, disease epidemics were evident only in the late summer or autumn months in 1999 and 2001. Overall, 20% of 385 samples obtained from adult animals older than 11 weeks were seropositive. An RHD outbreak in 1999 contributed to an estimated population decline of 26%. A second RHD epidemic in February 2001 was associated with a population decline of 52% over the subsequent month. Following the outbreaks, the seroprevalence in adult survivors was between 40% and 50%. During 2000, no deaths from RHDV were confirmed and mortalities were predominantly attributed to predation. Influx of seronegative immigrants was greatest in the 1999 and 2001 breeding seasons, and preceded the RHD epidemics in those years. Our data suggest that RHD epidemics require the population immunity level to fall below a threshold where propagation of infection can be maintained through the population.