Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction

Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

A framework and tool support for the systematic testing of model-based specifications

Formal specifications can precisely and unambiguously define the required behavior of a software system or component. However, formal specifications are complex artifacts that need to be verified to ensure that they are consistent, complete, and validated against the requirements. Specification testing or animation tools exist to assist with this by allowing the specifier to interpret or execute the specification. However, currently little is known about how to do this effectively. This article presents a framework and tool support for the systematic testing of formal, model-based specifications. Several important generic properties that should be satisfied by model-based specifications are first identified. Following the idea of mutation analysis, we then use variants or mutants of the specification to check that these properties are satisfied. The framework also allows the specifier to test application-specific properties. All properties are tested for a range of states that are defined by the tester in the form of a testgraph, which is a directed graph that partially models the states and transitions of the specification being tested. Tool support is provided for the generation of the mutants, for automatically traversing the testgraph and executing the test cases, and for reporting any errors. The framework is demonstrated on a small specification and its application to three larger specifications is discussed. Experience indicates that the framework can be used effectively to test small to medium-sized specifications and that it can reveal a significant number of problems in these specifications.

Testing the 'photoinhibition' model of coral bleaching using chemical inhibitors

Explants of the hard coral Seriatopora hystrix were exposed to sublethal concentrations of the herbicide diuron DCMU (N'-(3,4-dichlorophenyl,-N,N-dimethylurea)) and the heavy metal copper. Pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) chlorophyll fluorescence techniques were used to assess the effects on the photosynthetic efficiency of the algal symbionts in the tissue (in Symbio), and chlorophyll fluorescence and counts of symbiotic algae (normalised to surface area) were used to assess the extent of coral bleaching. At 30 mug DCMU l(-1), there was a reduction in both the maximum effective quantum yield (DeltaF/F-m') and maximum potential quantum yield (F-v/F-m) of the algal symbionts in symbio. Corals subsequently lost their algal symbionts and discoloured (bleached), especially on their upper sunlight-exposed surfaces. At the same DCMU concentration but under low light (5% of growth irradiance), there was a marked reduction in DeltaF/F-m' but only a slight reduction in F-v/F-m and slight loss of algae. Loss of algal symbionts was also noted after a 7 d exposure to concentrations as low as 10 mug DCMU l(-1) under normal growth irradiance, and after 14 d exposure to 10 mug DCMU l(-1) under reduced irradiance. Collectively the results indicate that DCMU-induced bleaching is caused by a light-dependent photoinactivation of algal symbionts, and that bleaching occurs when F-v/F-n, (measured 2 h after sunset) is reduced to a value of less than or equal to 0.6. Elevated copper concentrations (60 mug Cu l(-1) for 10 h) also induced a rapid bleaching in S. hystrix but without affecting the quantum yield of the algae in symbio. Tests with isolated algae indicated that substantially higher concentrations (300 mug Cu l(-1) for 8 h) were needed to significantly reduce the quantum yield. Thus, copper-induced bleaching occurs without affecting the algal photosynthesis and may be related to effects on the host (animal). It is argued that warm-water bleaching of corals resembles both types of chemically induced bleaching, suggesting the need for an integrated model of coral bleaching involving the effect of temperature on both host (coral) and algal symbionts.

Adaptation to being at-risk for Huntington's disease and the availability of genetic testing: Application of a stress and coping model

This study examined the utility of a stress/coping model in explaining adaptation in two groups of people at-risk for Huntington's Disease (HD): those who have not approached genetic testing services (non-testees) and those who have engaged a testing service (testees). The aims were (1) to compare testees and non-testees on stress/coping variables, (2) to examine relations between adjustment and the stress/coping predictors in the two groups, and (3) to examine relations between the stress/coping variables and testees' satisfaction with their first counselling session. Participants were 44 testees and 40 non-testees who completed questionnaires which measured the stress/coping variables: adjustment (global distress, depression, health anxiety, social and dyadic adjustment), genetic testing concerns, testing context (HD contact, experience, knowledge), appraisal (control, threat, self-efficacy), coping strategies (avoidance, self-blame, wishful thinking, seeking support, problem solving), social support and locus of control. Testees also completed a genetic counselling session satisfaction scale. As expected, non-testees reported lower self-efficacy and control appraisals, higher threat and passive avoidant coping than testees. Overall, results supported the hypothesis that within each group poorer adjustment would be related to higher genetic testing concerns, contact with HD, threat appraisals, passive avoidant coping and external locus of control, and lower levels of positive experiences with HD, social support, internal locus of control, self-efficacy, control appraisals, problem solving, emotional approach and seeking social support coping. Session satisfaction scores were positively correlated with dyadic adjustment, problem solving and positive experience with HD, and inversely related to testing concerns, and threat and control appraisals. Findings support the utility of the stress/coping model in explaining adaptation in people who have decided not to seek genetic testing for HD and those who have decided to engage a genetic testing service.

Polyethism and comparability of termite choice assays in a model system using Microcerotermes turneri (Termitidae : Termitinae): Implications for standardised testing techniques

Traditional measures of termite food preference assess consequences of foraging behavior such as wood consumption, aggregation and/or termite survivorship. Although studies have been done to investigate the specifics of foraging behavior this is not generally integrated into choice assay experiments. Here choice assays were conducted with small isolated (orphaned) groups of workers and compared with choice assays involving foragers from whole nests (non-orphaned) in the laboratory. Aggregation to two different wood types was used as a measure of preference. Specific worker caste and instars participating in initial exploration were compared between assay methods, with samples of termites taken from nest carton material and sites where termites were feeding. Aggregation results differ between choice assay techniques. Castes and instars responsible for initial exploration, as determined in whole nest trials, were not commonly found exploring in isolated group trials, nor were they numerous in termites taken from active feeding sites. Consequently the use of small groups of M. turneri worker termites extracted from active feeding sites may not be appropriate for use in choice assays.

Safety behaviors and dysfunctional beliefs about sleep: Testing a cognitive model of the maintenance of insomnia

Objective: Our aim was to determine if insomnia severity, dysfunctional beliefs about sleep, and depression predicted sleep-related safety behaviors. Method: Standard sleep-related measures (such as the Insomnia Severity Index; the Dysfunctional Beliefs About Sleep scale; the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale; and the Sleep-Related Behaviors Questionnaire) were administered. Additionally, 14 days of sleep diary (Pittsburg Sleep Diary) data and actual use of sleep-related behaviors were collected. Results: Regression analysis revealed that dysfunctional beliefs about sleep predicted sleep-related safety behaviors. Insomnia severity did not predict sleep-related safety behaviors. Depression accounted for the greatest amount of unique variance in the prediction of safety behaviors, followed by dysfunctional beliefs. Exploratory analysis revealed that participants with higher levels of depression used more sleep-related behaviors and reported greater dysfunctional beliefs about their sleep. Conclusion: The findings underlie the significant influence that dysfunctional beliefs have on individuals' behaviors. Moreover, the results suggest that depression may need to be considered as an explicit component of cognitive-behavioral models of insomnia. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recommendations for animal DNA forensic and identity testing

Genetic analysis in animals has been used for many applications, such as kinship analysis, for determining the sire of an offspring when a female has been exposed to multiple males, determining parentage when an animal switches offspring with another dam, extended lineage reconstruction, estimating inbreeding, identification in breed registries, and speciation. It now also is being used increasingly to characterize animal materials in forensic cases. As such, it is important to operate under a set of minimum guidelines that assures that all service providers have a template to follow for quality practices. None have been delineated for animal genetic identity testing. Based on the model for human DNA forensic analyses, a basic discussion of the issues and guidelines is provided for animal testing to include analytical practices, data evaluation, nomenclature, allele designation, statistics, validation, proficiency testing, lineage markers, casework files, and reporting. These should provide a basis for professional societies and/or working groups to establish more formalized recommendations.

Dynamic force balances for short-duration hypersonic testing facilities

Two force balance techniques for use in hypersonic impulse facilities are compared by measuring the drag force on a 30° semi-apex-angle blunt cone model in a hypersonic shock tunnel at a free stream Mach number of 5.75. An accelerometer-based balance and a stress-wave force balance were tested simultaneously on the same model to measure the drag force. It was found that drag force measurements could be made using both techniques in a flow with a 450-μ s test period. The measured drag forces compared well with the theoretical values estimated using Newtonian theory.

Testing the reliability of a new ultrasonic cardiac output monitor, the USCOM, by using aortic flowprobes in anesthetized dogs

We have used an animal model to test the reliability of a new portable continuous-wave Doppler ultrasonic cardiac output monitor, the USCOM. In six anesthetized dogs, cardiac output was measured with a high-precision transit time ultrasonic flowprobe placed on the ascending aorta. The dogs' cardiac output was increased with a dopamine infusion (0-15 mug (.) kg(-1) (.) min(-1)). Simultaneous flowprobe and USCOM cardiac output measurements were made. Up to 64 pairs of readings were collected from each dog. Data were compared by using the Bland and Altman plot method and Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. A total of 319 sets of paired readings were collected. The mean (+/-SD) cardiac output was 2.62 +/- 1.04 L/min, and readings ranged from 0.79 to 5.73 L/min. The mean bias between the 2 sets of readings was -0.01 L/min, with limits of agreement (95% confidence intervals) of -0.34 to 0.31 L/min. This represents a 13% error. In five of six dogs, there was a high degree of concordance, or agreement, between the 2 methods, with coefficients >0.9. The USCOM provided reliable measurements of cardiac output over a wide range of values. Clinical trials are needed to validate the device in humans.

Modelling of two-stage anaerobic digestion using the IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1)

The aim of the study presented was to implement a process model to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a pilot-scale process for anaerobic two-stage digestion of sewage sludge. The model implemented was initiated to support experimental investigations of the anaerobic two-stage digestion process. The model concept implemented in the simulation software package MATLAB(TM)/Simulink(R) is a derivative of the IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No.1 (ADM1) that has been developed by the IWA task group for mathematical modelling of anaerobic processes. In the present study the original model concept has been adapted and applied to replicate a two-stage digestion process. Testing procedures, including balance checks and 'benchmarking' tests were carried out to verify the accuracy of the implementation. These combined measures ensured a faultless model implementation without numerical inconsistencies. Parameters for both, the thermophilic and the mesophilic process stage, have been estimated successfully using data from lab-scale experiments described in literature. Due to the high number of parameters in the structured model, it was necessary to develop a customised procedure that limited the range of parameters to be estimated. The accuracy of the optimised parameter sets has been assessed against experimental data from pilot-scale experiments. Under these conditions, the model predicted reasonably well the dynamic behaviour of a two-stage digestion process in pilot scale. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing predictions of macroscopic binary diffusion coefficients using lattice models with site heterogeneity

Quantitatively predicting mass transport rates for chemical mixtures in porous materials is important in applications of materials such as adsorbents, membranes, and catalysts. Because directly assessing mixture transport experimentally is challenging, theoretical models that can predict mixture diffusion coefficients using Only single-component information would have many uses. One such model was proposed by Skoulidas, Sholl, and Krishna (Langmuir, 2003, 19, 7977), and applications of this model to a variety of chemical mixtures in nanoporous materials have yielded promising results. In this paper, the accuracy of this model for predicting mixture diffusion coefficients in materials that exhibit a heterogeneous distribution of local binding energies is examined. To examine this issue, single-component and binary mixture diffusion coefficients are computed using kinetic Monte Carlo for a two-dimensional lattice model over a wide range of lattice occupancies and compositions. The approach suggested by Skoulidas, Sholl, and Krishna is found to be accurate in situations where the spatial distribution of binding site energies is relatively homogeneous, but is considerably less accurate for strongly heterogeneous energy distributions.

Testing the niche apportionment hypothesis with parasite communities: is random assortment always the rule?

Niche apportionment models have only been applied once to parasite communities. Only the random assortment model (RA), which indicates that species abundances are independent from each other and that interspecific competition is unimportant, provided a good fit to 3 out of 6 parasite communities investigated. The generality of this result needs to be validated, however. In this study we apply 5 niche apportionment models to the parasite communities of 14 fish species from the Great Barrier Reef. We determined which model fitted the data when using either numerical abundance or biomass as an estimate of parasite abundance, and whether the fit of niche apportionment models depends on how the parasite community is defined (e.g. ecto, endoparasites or all parasites considered together). The RA model provided a good fit for the whole community of parasites in 7 fish species when using biovolume (as a surrogate of biomass) as a measure of species abundance. The RA model also fitted observed data when ecto- and endoparasites were considered separately, using abundance or biovolume, but less frequently. Variation in fish sizes among species was not associated with the probability of a model fitting the data. Total numerical abundance and biovolume of parasites were not related across host species, suggesting that they capture different aspects of abundance. Biovolume is not only a better measurement to use with niche-orientated models, it should also be the preferred descriptor to analyse parasite community structure in other contexts. Most of the biological assumptions behind the RA model, i.e. randomness in apportioning niche space, lack of interspecific competition, independence of abundance among different species, and species with variable niches in changeable environments, are in accordance with some previous findings on parasite communities. Thus, parasite communities may generally be unsaturated with species, with empty niches, and interspecific interactions may generally be unimportant in determining parasite community structure.