Methods for Categorical Longitudinal Survey Data: Understanding Employment Status of Australian Women

Many variables that are of interest in social science research are nominal variables with two or more categories, such as employment status, occupation, political preference, or self-reported health status. With longitudinal survey data it is possible to analyse the transitions of individuals between different employment states or occupations (for example). In the statistical literature, models for analysing categorical dependent variables with repeated observations belong to the family of models known as generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). The specific GLMM for a dependent variable with three or more categories is the multinomial logit random effects model. For these models, the marginal distribution of the response does not have a closed form solution and hence numerical integration must be used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the model parameters. Techniques for implementing the numerical integration are available but are computationally intensive requiring a large amount of computer processing time that increases with the number of clusters (or individuals) in the data and are not always readily accessible to the practitioner in standard software. For the purposes of analysing categorical response data from a longitudinal social survey, there is clearly a need to evaluate the existing procedures for estimating multinomial logit random effects model in terms of accuracy, efficiency and computing time. The computational time will have significant implications as to the preferred approach by researchers. In this paper we evaluate statistical software procedures that utilise adaptive Gaussian quadrature and MCMC methods, with specific application to modeling employment status of women using a GLMM, over three waves of the HILDA survey.

The role of cognitive vulnerability and stress in the prediction of postpartum depressive symptomatology

Objectives. The present study was designed to test the diathesis-stress components of Beck's cognitive theory of depression and the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression in the prediction of postpartum depressive symptomatology. Design and methods. The research used a two-wave longitudinal design-data were collected from 65 primiparous women during their third trimester of pregnancy and then 6 weeks after the birth. Cognitive vulnerability and initial depressive symptomatology were assessed at Time 1, whereas stress and postpartum depressive symptomatology were assessed at Time 2. Results. There was some support for the diathesis-stress component of Beck's cognitive theory, to the extent that the negative relationship between both general and maternal-specific dysfunctional attitudes associated with performance evaluation and Time 2 depressive symptomatology was strongest for women who reported high levels of parental stress. In a similar vein, the effects of dysfunctional attitudes (general and maternal-specific) associated with performance evaluation and need for approval (general measure only) on partner ratings of emotional distress were evident only among those women whose infants were rated as being temperamentally difficult. Conclusion. There was no support for the diathesis-stress component of the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression; however, there was some support for the diathesis-stress component of Beck's cognitive theory.

An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measuring globalisation: An evolutionary economic approach to tracking the evolution of international trade

Operationalising and measuring the concept of globalisation is important, as the extent to which the international economy is integrated has a direct impact on industrial dynamics, national trade policies and firm strategies. Using complex systems network analysis with longitudinal trade data from 1938 to 2003, this paper presents a new way to measure globalisation. It demonstrates that some important aspects of the international trade network have been remarkably stable over this period. However, several network measures have changed substantially over the same time frame. Taken together, these analyses provide a novel measure of globalisation.

Multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression modelling of correlated count data with excess zeros

Count data with excess zeros relative to a Poisson distribution are common in many biomedical applications. A popular approach to the analysis of such data is to use a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model. Often, because of the hierarchical Study design or the data collection procedure, zero-inflation and lack of independence may occur simultaneously, which tender the standard ZIP model inadequate. To account for the preponderance of zero counts and the inherent correlation of observations, a class of multi-level ZIP regression model with random effects is presented. Model fitting is facilitated using an expectation-maximization algorithm, whereas variance components are estimated via residual maximum likelihood estimating equations. A score test for zero-inflation is also presented. The multi-level ZIP model is then generalized to cope with a more complex correlation structure. Application to the analysis of correlated count data from a longitudinal infant feeding study illustrates the usefulness of the approach.

Analysis of proximal femur DXA scans in growing children: Comparisons of different protocols for cross-sectional 8-month and 7-year longitudinal data

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is a widely used method for measuring bone mineral in the growing skeleton. Because scan analysis in children offers a number of challenges, we compared DXA results using six analysis methods at the total proximal femur (PF) and five methods at the femoral neck (FN), In total we assessed 50 scans (25 boys, 25 girls) from two separate studies for cross-sectional differences in bone area, bone mineral content (BMC), and areal bone mineral density (aBMD) and for percentage change over the short term (8 months) and long term (7 years). At the proximal femur for the short-term longitudinal analysis, there was an approximate 3.5% greater change in bone area and BMC when the global region of interest (ROI) was allowed to increase in size between years as compared with when the global ROI was held constant. Trend analysis showed a significant (p < 0.05) difference between scan analysis methods for bone area and BMC across 7 years. At the femoral neck, cross-sectional analysis using a narrower (from default) ROI, without change in location, resulted in a 12.9 and 12.6% smaller bone area and BMC, respectively (both p < 0.001), Changes in FN area and BMC over 8 months were significantly greater (2.3 %, p < 0.05) using a narrower FN rather than the default ROI, Similarly, the 7-year longitudinal data revealed that differences between scan analysis methods were greatest when the narrower FN ROI was maintained across all years (p < 0.001), For aBMD there were no significant differences in group means between analysis methods at either the PF or FN, Our findings show the need to standardize the analysis of proximal femur DXA scans in growing children.

A zero-augmented gamma mixed model for longitudinal data with many zeros

In many occupational safety interventions, the objective is to reduce the injury incidence as well as the mean claims cost once injury has occurred. The claims cost data within a period typically contain a large proportion of zero observations (no claim). The distribution thus comprises a point mass at 0 mixed with a non-degenerate parametric component. Essentially, the likelihood function can be factorized into two orthogonal components. These two components relate respectively to the effect of covariates on the incidence of claims and the magnitude of claims, given that claims are made. Furthermore, the longitudinal nature of the intervention inherently imposes some correlation among the observations. This paper introduces a zero-augmented gamma random effects model for analysing longitudinal data with many zeros. Adopting the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach reduces the original problem to the fitting of two independent GLMMs. The method is applied to evaluate the effectiveness of a workplace risk assessment teams program, trialled within the cleaning services of a Western Australian public hospital.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for categorical longitudinal data from a social survey of immigrants

The paper investigates a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of categorical longitudinal data from a large social survey of immigrants to Australia. Data for each subject are observed on three separate occasions, or waves, of the survey. One of the features of the data set is that observations for some variables are missing for at least one wave. A model for the employment status of immigrants is developed by introducing, at the first stage of a hierarchical model, a multinomial model for the response and then subsequent terms are introduced to explain wave and subject effects. To estimate the model, we use the Gibbs sampler, which allows missing data for both the response and the explanatory variables to be imputed at each iteration of the algorithm, given some appropriate prior distributions. After accounting for significant covariate effects in the model, results show that the relative probability of remaining unemployed diminished with time following arrival in Australia.

Quality of Reporting of Observational Longitudinal Research

Observational longitudinal research is particularly useful for assessing etiology and prognosis and for providing evidence for clinical decision making. However, there are no structured reporting requirements for studies of this design to assist authors, editors, and readers. The authors developed and tested a checklist of criteria related to threats to the internal and external validity of observational longitudinal studies. The checklist criteria concerned recruitment, data collection, biases, and data analysis and descriptive issues relevant to study rationale, study population, and generalizability. Two raters independently assessed 49 randomly selected articles describing stroke research published from 1999 to 2003 in six journals: American Journal of Epidemiology, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Stroke, Annals of Neurology, Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, and American Journal of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. On average, 17 of the 33 checklist criteria were reported. Criteria describing the study design were better reported than those related to internal validity. No relation was found between study type (etiologic or prognostic) or word count and quality of reporting. A flow diagram for summarizing participant flow through a study was developed. Editors and authors should consider using a checklist and flow diagram when reporting on observational longitudinal research.

Changes in estimated coronary risk in the 1980s: data from 38 populations in the WHO MONICA Project

The World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project is a 10-year study monitoring trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease in geographically defined populations. Data were collected from over 100 000 randomly selected participants in two risk factor surveys conducted approximately 5 years apart in 38 populations using standardized protocols. The net effects of changes in the risk factor levels were estimated using risk scores derived from longitudinal studies in the Nordic countries. The prevalence of cigarette smoking decreased among men in most populations, but the trends for women varied. The prevalence of hypertension declined in two-thirds of the populations. Changes in the prevalence of raised total cholesterol were small but highly correlated between the genders (r = 0.8). The prevalence of obesity increased in three-quarters of the populations for men and in more than half of the populations for women. In almost half of the populations there were statistically significant declines in the estimated coronary risk for both men and women, although for Beijing the risk score increased significantly for both genders. The net effect of the changes in the risk factor levels in the 1980s in most of the study populations of the WHO MONICA Project is that the rates of coronary disease are predicted to decline in the 1990s.

A H-1 MRS study of probable Alzheimer's disease and normal aging: Implications for longitudinal monitoring of dementia progression

In order to evaluate the capability of H-1 MRS to monitor longitudinal changes in subjects with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD), the temporal stability of the metabolite measures N-acetylaspartate and N-acetylas-partylglutamate (NA), total Creatine (Cr), myo-Inositol (mI), total Choline (Chol), NA/Cr, mI/Cr, Chol/Cr and NA/mI were investigated in a cohort of normal older adults. Only the metabolite measures NA, mi, Cr, NA/Cr, mI/Cr, and NA/mI were found to be stable after a mean interval of 260 days. Relative and absolute metabolite measures from a cohort of patients with probable AD were subsequently compared with data from a sample of normal older adult control subjects, and correlated with mental status and the degree of atrophy in the localized voxel. Concentrations of NA, NA/Cr, and NA/mI were significantly reduced in the AD group with concomitant significant increases in mi and mI/Cr. There were no differences between the two groups in measures of Cr, Chol, or Chol/Cr. Significant correlations between mental status as measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination and NA/mI, mI/Cr and NA were found. These metabolite measures were also significantly correlated with the extent of atrophy (as measured by CSF and GM composition) in the spectroscopy voxel. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.

Women's health Australia: Recruitment for a national longitudinal cohort study

The Women's Health Australia (WHA) project is a longitudinal study of several cohorts of Australian women, which aims to examine the relationships between biological, psychological, social and lifestyle factors and women's physical health, emotional well-being, and their use of and satisfaction with health care. Using the Medicare database as a sampling frame (with oversampling of women from rural and remote areas), 106,000 women in the three age groups 18-23, 45-50 and 70-75 were sent an invitation to participate and a 24-page self-complete questionnaire. Reminder letters, a nation-wide publicity campaign, information brochures, a freecall number for inquiries, and the option of completing the questionnaire by telephone in English or in the respondent's own language, were used to encourage participation. Statutory regulations precluded telephone follow-up of non-respondents. Response rates were 41% (N = 14,792), 54% (N = 14,200) and 36% (N = 12,614) for the three age groups. Comparison with Australian census data indicated that the samples are reasonably representative of Australian women in these age groups, except fur a somewhat higher representation of women who are married or in a defacto relationship, and of women with post-school education. The most common reason for non-participation was lack of interest or time. Personal circumstances, objections to the questionnaire or specific items in it, and concerns about confidentiality were the other main reasons. Recruitment of three representative age-group cohorts of women, and the maintenance of these cohorts over a number of years, will provide a valuable opportunity to examine associations over time between aspects of women's lives and their physical and emotional health and well-being.

A longitudinal study of self-awareness: Functional deficits underestimated by persons with brain injury

A longitudinal study of 55 adults with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) investigated the areas of function for which they lacked self-awareness of their level of competency. Data were collected at 3 and 12 months post-injury using the Patient Competency Rating Scale. Self-awareness was measured by comparing patient self-ratings with the ratings of an infor mant. The results were consistent with previous studies, indicating that self-awareness was most impaired for activities with a large cognitive and socioemotional component, and least impaired for basic activities of daily living, memory activities, and overt emotional responses. For most areas of function that were overestimated at 3 months post-injury, self-awareness subsequently improved during the first year after injury.