Magma Flow Instabilities in a Volcanic Conduit: Implications for Long-Period Seismicity

Silicic volcanic eruptions are typically accompanied by repetitive Long-Period (LP) seismicity that originates from a small region of the upper conduit. These signals have the capability to advance eruption prediction, since they commonly precede a change in the eruption vigour. Shear bands forming along the conduit wall, where the shear stresses are highest, have been linked to providing the seismic trigger. However, existing computational models are unable to generate shear bands at the depths where the LP signals originate using simple magma strength models. Presented here is a model in which the magma strength is determined from a constitutive relationship dependent upon crystallinity and pressure. This results in a depth-dependent magma strength, analogous to planetary lithospheres. Hence, in shallow highly-crystalline regions a macroscopically discontinuous brittle type of deformation will prevail, whilst in deeper crystal-poor regions there will be a macroscopically continuous plastic deformation mechanism. This will result in a depth where the brittle-ductile transition occurs, and here shear bands disconnected from the free-surface may develop. We utilize the Finite Element Method and use axi-symmetric coordinates to model magma flow as a viscoplastic material, simulating quasi-static shear bands along the walls of a volcanic conduit. Model results constrained to the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, show the generation of two types of shear bands: upper-conduit shear bands that form between the free-surface to a few 100 metres below it and discrete shear bands that form at the depths where LP seismicity is measured to occur corresponding to the brittle-ductile transition and the plastic shear region. It is beyond the limitation of the model to simulate a seismic event, although the modelled viscosity within the discrete shear bands suggests a failure and healing cycle time that supports the observed LP seismicity repeat times. However, due to the paucity of data and large parameter space available these results can only be considered to be qualitative rather than quantitative at this stage.

Long-term clozapine treatment identifies significant improvements in clinical and functioning scales

The majority of clinical drug trials only cover a small number of variables over a short period of time on a small group of people. The objective of this study was to track a large group of people over a long period of time, using a diverse range of variables with a naturalistic design to assess the ‘real world’ use of clozapine. Fifty-three people with treatment-resistant schizophrenia were recruited into a 2-year study which assessed the subjects using the following scales: Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), Clinical Global Impression Scale (CGI), Life Skills Profile (LSP), and Role Functioning Scale (RFS). Discharge, leave, and ward movement rates were also monitored. All subjects were inpatients at a tertiary psychiatric facility. Thirty-three percent of the group was discharged. Seventythree percent moved to less cost-intensive wards, and the leave rate increased by 105”/0. Sixty-seven percent of the study group were identified as responders by the 24-month time point. Twenty-four percent of the group had their CGI scores reduced to 2 or better 0, =O.OOOl). Significant improvements were identified in the RFS (p = 0.02) and LSP (p = 0.0001). Long-term clozapine treatment has identified a significant group of responders on a variety of measures.

Submarine groundwater discharge and associated chemical input to a coastal sea

This paper presents a theoretical model of flow and chemical transport processes in subterranean estuaries (unconfined brackish groundwater aquifers at the ocean-land interface). The model shows that groundwater circulation and oscillating flow, caused by wave setup and tide, may constitute up to 96% of submarine groundwater discharge (SGWD) compared with 4% due to the net groundwater discharge. While these local flow processes do not change the total amount of land-derived chemical input to the ocean over a long period (e.g., yearly), they induce fluctuations of the chemical transfer rate as the aquifer undergoes saltwater intrusion. This may result in a substantial increase in chemical fluxes to the ocean over a short period (e.g., monthly and by a factor of 20 above the averaged level), imposing a possible threat to the marine environment. These results are essentially consistent with the experimental findings of Moore [1996] and have important implications for coastal resources management.

Finite element modelling of reactive fluids mixing and mineralization in pore-fluid saturated hydrothermal/sedimentary basins

We present the finite element simulations of reactive mineral carrying fluids mixing and mineralization in pore-fluid saturated hydrothermal/sedimentary basins. In particular we explore the mixing of reactive sulfide and sulfate fluids and the relevant patterns of mineralization for Load, zinc and iron minerals in the regime of temperature-gradient-driven convective flow. Since the mineralization and ore body formation may last quite a long period of time in a hydrothermal basin, it is commonly assumed that, in the geochemistry, the solutions of minerals are in an equilibrium state or near an equilibrium state. Therefore, the mineralization rate of a particular kind of mineral can be expressed as the product of the pore-fluid velocity and the equilibrium concentration of this particular kind of mineral Using the present mineralization rate of a mineral, the potential of the modern mineralization theory is illustrated by means of finite element studies related to reactive mineral-carrying fluids mixing problems in materially homogeneous and inhomogeneous porous rock basins.

Sequestration of carbon by soil

Soil carbon is a major component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The soils of the world contain more carbon than the combined total amounts occurring in vegetation and the atmosphere. Consequently, soils are a major reservoir of carbon and an important sink. Because of the relatively long period of time that carbon spends within the soil and is thereby withheld from the atmosphere, it is often referred to as being sequestered. Increasing the capacity of soils to sequester C provides a partial, medium-term countermeasure to help ameliorate the increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere arising from fossil fuel burning and land clearing. Such action will also help to alleviate the environmental impacts arising from increasing levels of atmospheric CO2. The C sequestration potential of any soil depends on its capacity to store resistant plant components in the medium term and to protect and accumulate the humic substances (HS) formed from the transformations or organic materials in the soil environment. The sequestration potential of a soil depends on the vegetation it supports, its mineralogical composition, the depth of the solum, soil drainage, the availability of water and air, and the temperature of the soil environment. The sequestration potential also depends on the chemical characteristics of the soil organic matter and its ability to resist microbial decomposition. When accurate information for these features is incorporated in model systems, the potentials of different soils to sequester C can be reliably predicted. It is encouraging to know that improved soil and crop management systems now allow field yields to be maintained and soil C reserves to be increased, even for soils with depleted levels of soil C. Estimates of the soil C sequestration potential are discussed. Inevitably HS are the major components of the additionally sequestered C. It will be important to know more about the compositions and associations of these substances in the soil if we are able to predict reasonably accurately the ability of any soil type to sequester C in different cropping and soil management systems.

Living on the edge: parasite taxonomy in Australia

The way in which the huge Australian parasite fauna is described (discovery and naming) is the subject of this address. The approach to the task has never been well-organised so that a few groups of parasites are now relatively well-known because of the efforts of small groups of workers who have made sustained efforts in these groups, but equally some host-parasite systems have been almost completely ignored in that no worker has ever given them sustained attention. A high proportion of Australian parasites have been described by international workers; The sustaining of interest in a group of parasites over a long period is the key to real progress being made. The nature of the organisation of Australian science presently means that few positions are available for parasite taxonomists and funding for taxonomic research is scarce. Thus, parasite taxonomy (like the taxonomy of many groups of Australian plants and animals) can only be considered to be in crisis. (C) 2003 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AMS dating of rock art in the Laura Region, Cape York Peninsula, Australia - protocols and results of recent research

The authors describe rock art dating research in Australia using the oxalate method While the array of dates obtained (which range from c. 1200 to c. 25000 BP) show a satisfactory correlation with other archaeological data, there are mismatches which suggest that some motifs were often imitated by later artists, and/or that the mineral accretions continued to form periodically, perhaps continuously, as a regional phenomenon over a long period of time.

Calculation of the microcanonical temperature for the classical Bose field

The ergodic hypothesis asserts that a classical mechanical system will in time visit every available configuration in phase space. Thus, for an ergodic system, an ensemble average of a thermodynamic quantity can equally well be calculated by a time average over a sufficiently long period of dynamical evolution. In this paper, we describe in detail how to calculate the temperature and chemical potential from the dynamics of a microcanonical classical field, using the particular example of the classical modes of a Bose-condensed gas. The accurate determination of these thermodynamics quantities is essential in measuring the shift of the critical temperature of a Bose gas due to nonperturbative many-body effects.

The effect of manganese on the grain size of commercial AZ31 alloy

The effect of manganese on gain refinement of a commercial AZ31 alloy has been investigated using an Al-60%Mn master alloy splatter as an alloying additive at 730 degrees C in aluminium titanite crucibles. It is shown that grain refinement by manganese is readily achievable in AZ31. Electron microprobe analyses reveal that prior to the addition of extra manganese the majority of the intermetallic particles found in AZ31 are of the AL(8)Mn(5) type. However, after the addition of extra manganese in the range from 0.1% to 0.8%, the predominant group of intermetallic particles changes to the metastable AlMn type. This leads to a hypothesis that the metastable AlMn intermetallic particles are more effective than Al8Mn5 as nucleation sites for magnesium grains. The hypothesis is supported by the observation that a long period of holding at 730 degrees C leads to an increase in grain size, due probably to the transformation of the metastable AlMn to the stable Al8Mn5. The hypothesis has also been used to understand the mechanism of grain refinement by superheating.

Frequency stabilised grating feedback laser diode for atom cooling applications

The free running linewidth of an external cavity grating feedback diode laser is on the order of a few megahertz and is limited by the mechanical and acoustic vibrations of the external cavity. Such frequency fluctuations can be removed by electronic feedback. We present a hybrid stabilisation technique that uses both a Fabry-Perot confocal cavity and an atomic resonance to achieve excellent short and long term frequency stability. The system has been shown to reduce the laser linewidth of an external cavity diode laser by an order of magnitude to 140 kHz, while limiting frequency excursions to 60 kHz relative to an absolute reference over periods of several hours. The scheme also presents a simple way to frequency offset two lasers many gigahertz apart which should find a use in atom cooling experiments, where hyperfine ground-state frequency separations are often required.

On modifications to the long-term survival mixture model in the presence of competing risks

A mixture model for long-term survivors has been adopted in various fields such as biostatistics and criminology where some individuals may never experience the type of failure under study. It is directly applicable in situations where the only information available from follow-up on individuals who will never experience this type of failure is in the form of censored observations. In this paper, we consider a modification to the model so that it still applies in the case where during the follow-up period it becomes known that an individual will never experience failure from the cause of interest. Unless a model allows for this additional information, a consistent survival analysis will not be obtained. A partial maximum likelihood (ML) approach is proposed that preserves the simplicity of the long-term survival mixture model and provides consistent estimators of the quantities of interest. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the efficiency of the partial ML approach relative to the full ML approach for survival in the presence of competing risks.

Long-term disability after first-ever stroke and related prognostic factors in the Perth Community Stroke Study, 1989-1990

Background and Purpose-Few reliable estimates of the long-term functional outcome after stroke are available. This population-based study aimed to describe disability, dependency, and related independent prognostic factors at 5 years after,a first-ever stroke in patients in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-All individuals with a suspected acute stroke who were resident in a geographically defined region (population, 138 708) of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria over a period of 18 months in 1989 to 1990. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 and 12 months and 5 years after the index event. Results-There were 370 cases of first-ever stroke, and 277 patients survived to 30 days. Of these early survivors, 152 (55%) were alive at 5 years, and among those who were neither institutionalized (n=146) nor disabled (n=129) at the time of their stroke, 21 (14%) were institutionalized in a nursing home, and 47 (36%) were disabled. The most important predictors of death or disability at 5 years were increasing age, baseline disability defined by a Barthel Index score of <20/20 (odds ratio [OR], 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.7 to 14), moderate hemiparesis (OR, 2.7. 95% CI, 1.1 to 6.2), severe hemiparesis (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 19), and recurrent stroke (OR, 9.4; 95% CI, 3.0 to 30). A low level of activity before the stroke was a significant predictor of institutionalization, and subsequent recurrent stroke was a consistent, independent predictor of institutionalization, disability, and death or institutionalization, increasing the odds of each of these 3 adverse outcomes by 5- to 15-fold. Conclusions-Among 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, about half survive 5 years; of survivors, one third remain disabled, and I in 7 are in permanent institutional care. The major modifiable predictors of poor long-term outcome are a low level of activity before the stroke and subsequent recurrent stroke. Efforts to increase physical activity among the elderly and to prevent recurrent stroke in survivors of a first stroke are likely to reduce the long-term burden of cerebrovascular disease.

Long-term survival of women with breast cancer in New South Wales

Several long-term studies of breast cancer survival have shown continued excess mortality from breast cancer up to 20-40 years following treatment. The purpose of this report was to investigate temporal trends in long-term survival from breast cancer in all New South Wales (NSW) women. Breast cancer cases incident in 1972-1996 (54,228) were derived from the NSW Central Cancer Registry a population-based registry which began in 1972. All cases of breast cancer not known to be dead were matched against death records. The expected survival for NSW women was derived from published annual life tables. Relative survival analysis compared the survival of cancer cases with the age, sex and period matched mortality of the total population. Cases were considered alive at the end of 1996, except when known to be dead. Proportional hazards regression was employed to model survival on age, period and degree of spread at diagnosis. Survival at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years of follow-up was 76 per cent, 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 57 per cent and 56 per cent. The annual hazard rate for excess mortality was 4.3 per cent in year 1, maximal at 6.5 per cent in year 3, declining to 4.7 per cent in year 5, 2.7 per cent in year 10, 1.4 per cent in year 15, 1.0 per cent for years 16-20, and 0.4 per cent for years 20-25 of follow-up. Relative survival was highest in 40-49 year-olds. Cases diagnosed most recently (1992-1996) had the highest survival, compared with cases diagnosed in previous periods. Five-year survival improved over time, especially from the late 1980s for women in the screening age group (50-69 years). Survival was highest for those with localised cancer at diagnosis: 88.4 per cent, 79.1 per cent, 74.6 per cent, 72.7 per cent and 72.8 per cent at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years follow-up (excluding those aged greater than or equal to 70 years). There was no significant difference between the survival of the breast cancer cases and the general population at 20-25 years follow-up. Degree of spread was less predictive of survival 5-20 years after diagnosis, compared with 0-5 years after diagnosis, and was not significant at 20-25 years of follow-up. Relative survival from breast cancer in NSW women continues to decrease to 25 years after diagnosis, but there is little excess mortality after 15 years follow-up, especially for those with localised cancer at diagnosis, and the minimal excess mortality at 20-25 years of follow-up is not statistically significant. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deconvolving the delta O-18 seawater component from subseasonal coral delta O-18 and Sr/Ca at Rarotonga in the southwestern subtropical Pacific for the period 1726 to 1997

To reconstruct oceanographic variations in the subtropical South Pacific, 271-year long subseasonal time series of Sr/Ca and delta(18)O were generated from a coral growing at Rarotonga (21.5degreesS, 159.5degreesW). In this case, coral Sr/Ca appears to be an excellent proxy for sea surface temperature (SST) and coral delta(18)O is a function of both SST and seawater delta(18)O composition (delta(18)O(sw)). Here, we focus on extracting the delta(18)O(sw) signal from these proxy records. A method is presented assuming that coral Sr/Ca is solely a function of SST and that coral delta(18)O is a function of both SST and delta(18)O(sw). This method separates the effects of delta(18)O(sw) from SST by breaking the instantaneous changes of coral delta(18)O into separate contributions by instantaneous SST and delta(18)O(sw) changes, respectively. The results show that on average delta(18)O(sw) at Rarotonga explains similar to39% of the variance in delta(18)O and that variations in SST explains the remaining similar to61% of delta(18)O variance. Reconstructed delta(18)O(sw) shows systematic increases in summer months (December-February) consistent with the regional pattern of variations in precipitation and evaporation. The delta(18)O(sw) also shows a positive linear correlation with satellite-derived estimated salinity for the period 1980 to 1997 (r = 0.72). This linear correlation between reconstructed delta(18)O(sw) and salinity makes it possible to use the reconstructed delta(18)O(sw) to estimate the past interannual and decadal salinity changes in this region. Comparisons of coral delta(18)O and delta(18)O(sw) at Rarotonga with the Pacific decadal oscillation index suggest that the decadal and interdecadal salinity and SST variability at Rarotonga appears to be related to basin-scale decadal variability in the Pacific. Copyright (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Causes and consequences of long-term climatic variability on the Australian continent

1. Ice-volume forced glacial-interglacial cyclicity is the major cause of global climate variation within the late Quaternary period. Within the Australian region, this variation is expressed predominantly as oscillations in moisture availability. Glacial periods were substantially drier than today with restricted distribution of mesic plant communities, shallow or ephemeral water bodies and extensive aeolian dune activity. 2. Superimposed on this cyclicity in Australia is a trend towards drier and/or more variable climates within the last 350 000 years. This trend may have been initiated by changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation resulting from Australia's continued movement into the Southeast Asian region and involving the onset or intensification of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation system and a reduction in summer monsoon activity. 3. Increased biomass burning, stemming originally from increased climatic variability and later enhanced by activities of indigenous people, resulted in a more open and sclerophyllous vegetation, increased salinity and a further reduction in water availability. 4. Past records combined with recent observations suggest that the degree of environmental variability will increase and the drying trend will be enhanced in the foreseeable future, regardless of the extent or nature of human intervention.