Nonstationary brand variables in category management: A cointegration perspective

Category-management models serve to assist in the development of plans for pricing and promotions of individual brands. Techniques to solve the models can have problems of accuracy and interpretability because they are susceptible to spurious regression problems due to nonstationary time-series data. Improperly stated nonstationary systems can reduce the accuracy of the forecasts and undermine the interpretation of the results. This is problematic because recent studies indicate that sales are often a nonstationary time-series. Newly developed correction techniques can account for nonstationarity by incorporating error-correction terms into the model when using a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model. The benefit of using such a technique is that shocks to control variates can be separated into permanent and temporary effects and allow cointegration of series for analysis purposes. Analysis of a brand data set indicates that this is important even at the brand level. Thus, additional information is generated that allows a decision maker to examine controllable variables in terms of whether they influence sales over a short or long duration. Only products that are nonstationary in sales volume can be manipulated for long-term profit gain, and promotions must be cointegrated with brand sales volume. The brand data set is used to explore the capabilities and interpretation of cointegration.

Making media work in space: An interdisciplinary perspective on media and communication requirements for current and future space communities

As humans expand into space communities will form. These have already begun to form in small ways, such as long-duration missions on the International Space Station and the space shuttle, and small-scale tourist excursions into space. Social, behavioural and communications data emerging from such existing communities in space suggest that the physically-bounded, work-oriented and traditionally male-dominated nature of these extremely remote groups present specific problems for the resident astronauts, groups of them viewed as ‘communities’, and their associated groups who remain on Earth, including mission controllers, management and astronauts’ families. Notionally feminine group attributes such as adaptive competence, social adaptation skills and social sensitivity will be crucial to the viability of space communities and in the absence of gender equity, ‘staying in touch’ by means of ‘news from home’ becomes more important than ever. A template of news and media forms and technologies is suggested to service those needs and enhance the social viability of future terraforming activities.

What does the animal model teach us about the effects of physical activity on growing bone?

Experiments to design physical activity programs that optimize their osteogenic potential are difficult to accomplish in humans. The aim of this article is to review the contributions that animal studies have made to knowledge of the loading conditions that are osteogenic to the skeleton during growth, as well as to consider to what extent animal studies fail to provide valid models of physical activity and skeletal maturation. Controlled loading studies demonstrate that static loads are ineffective, and that bone formation is threshold driven and dependent on strain rate, amplitude, and duration of loading. Only a few loading cycles per session are required, and distributed bouts are more osteogenic than sessions of long duration. Finally, animal models fail to inform us of the most appropriate ways to account for the variations in biological maturation that occur in our studies of children and adolescents, requiring the use of techniques for studying human growth and development.

Continuous glucose monitoring in diabetic long distance runners

Marathon running is growing in popularity, and many diabetic patients are participating in various marathon races all over the world each year. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and extent of glycemic excursions (hypo- and hyperglycemic) during a marathon run in patients with well-controlled diabetes mellitus using a continuous glucose monitoring system (CGMS). Five subjects with type 1 and one patient with type 2 diabetes mellitus were monitored with the Medtronic MiniMed CGMS during the 2002 Vienna City Marathon (n = 3) or the Fernwarme run (n = 3) long distance runs of 42.19/15.8 km. All six patients finished their course. The CGSM system was well tolerated in all patients over an average duration of 34 +/- 4.0 hours and it did not limit the patients' activities. The mean running time for the Vienna city marathon was 257 +/- 8 min (247 to 274 min) and for the Fernwarme run 134 +/- 118 min (113 to 150 min). A total of 1470 blood glucose measurements (mean 245 readings per subject) were performed. During and after the marathons frequent hypo and hyperglycemic episodes with and without clinical symptoms were measured. Our data confirm that the CGMS may help to identify asymptomatic hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia during and after a long distance run. The system may also be helpful to improve our understanding about the individual changes of glucose during and after a marathon and may protect hypoglycemic or hyperglycemic periods in future races.

Risk of serious NSAID-related gastrointestinal events during long-term exposure: a systematic review

Objective: Exposure to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is associated wit increased risk of serious gastrointestinal (GI) events compared with non-exposure. We investigated whether that risk is sustained over time. Data sources: Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (to 2002); MEDLINE, EMBASE, Derwent Drug File and Current Contents (1999-2002); manual searching of reviews (1999-2002). Study selection: From 479 search results reviewed and 221 articles retrieved, seven studies of patients exposed to prescription non-selective NSAIDs for more than 6 months and reporting time-dependent serious GI event rates were selected for quantitative data synthesis. These were stratified into two groups by study design. Data extraction: Incidence of GI events and number of patients at specific time points were extracted. Data synthesis: Meta-regression analyses were performed. Change in risk was evaluated by testing whether the slope of the regression line declined over time. Four randomised controlled trials (RCTs) provided evaluable data from five NSAID arms (aspirin, naproxen, two ibuprofen arms, and diclofenac). When the RCT data were combined, a small significant decline in annualised risk was seen: -0.005% (95% Cl, -0.008% to -0.001%) per month. Sensitivity analyses were conducted because there was disparity within the RCT data. The pooled estimate from three cohort studies showed no significant decline in annualised risk over periods up to 2 years: -0.003% (95% Cl, -0.008% to 0.003%) per month. Conclusions: Small decreases in risk over time were observed; these were of negligible clinical importance. For patients who need long-term (> 6 months) treatment, precautionary measures should be considered to reduce the net probability of serious GI events over the anticipated treatment duration. The effect of intermittent versus regular daily therapy on long-term risk needs further investigation.