Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A possible smoking susceptibility locus on chromosome 11p12: Evidence from sex-limitation linkage analyses in a sample of Australian twin families

Many twin studies have identified sex differences in the influence of genetic and environmental factors on smoking behaviors. We explore the evidence for sex differences for smoking initiation and cigarette consumption in a sample of Australian twin families, and extend these models to incorporate sex differences in linkage analyses for these traits. We further examine the impact of including or excluding non-smokers in genetic analyses of tobacco consumption. Accounting for sex differences improved linkage results in some instances. We identified one region suggestive of linkage on chromosome 11p12. This locus, as well as another region identified on chromosome 6p12, replicates regions identified in previous studies.

Consumption habit and international stock returns

We use the consumption-based asset pricing model with habit formation to study the predictability and cross-section of returns from the international equity markets. We find that the predictability of returns from many developed countries' equity markets is explained in part by changing prices of risks associated with consumption relative to habit at the world as well as local levels. We also provide an exploratory investigation of the cross-sectional implications of the model under the complete world market integration hypothesis and find that the model performs mildly better than the traditional consumption-based model. the unconditional and conditional world CAPMs and a three-factor international asset pricing model. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost of tobacco-related diseases, including passive smoking, in Hong Kong

Background: Costs of tobacco-related disease can be useful evidence to support tobacco control. In Hong Kong we now have locally derived data on the risks of smoking, including passive smoking. Aim: To estimate the health-related costs of tobacco from both active and passive smoking. Methods: Using local data, we estimated active and passive smoking-attributable mortality, hospital admissions, outpatient, emergency and general practitioner visits for adults and children, use of nursing homes and domestic help, time lost from work due to illness and premature mortality in the productive years. Morbidity risk data were used where possible but otherwise estimates based on mortality risks were used. Utilisation was valued at unit costs or from survey data. Work time lost was valued at the median wage and an additional costing included a value of US$1.3 million for a life lost. Results: In the Hong Kong population of 6.5 million in 1998, the annual value of direct medical costs, long term care and productivity loss was US$532 million for active smoking and US$156 million for passive smoking; passive smoking accounted for 23% of the total costs. Adding the value of attributable lives lost brought the annual cost to US$9.4 billion. Conclusion: The health costs of tobacco use are high and represent a net loss to society. Passive smoking increases these costs by at least a quarter. This quantification of the costs of tobacco provides strong motivation for legislative action on smoke-free areas in the Asia Pacific Region and elsewhere.

The consumption of alcohol by Australian adolescents: A comparison of revenue and expenditure

Aims: To estimate (i) Australian government taxation revenue collected from the consumption of alcohol by adolescents and (ii) the amount spent by the government on interventions aimed at educating adolescents about the potential dangers of alcohol use. Design: Secondary data analysis. Setting: Australia. Findings: Australian adolescents (aged between 12 and 17 years, inclusive) spent approximately $217 million on alcoholic beverages in 2002, netting the Australian government approximately $112 million in tax revenue. This resulted in an average of $195 earned in tax per adolescent drinker. It is estimated that the Government spent approximately $17 million on adolescent drinking interventions in 2002, equating to an expenditure of about $10.51 per adolescent on the delivery of alcohol interventions. For every dollar spent on alcohol interventions aimed at adolescents, it is estimated that the government receives around $7 in alcohol tax revenue. Conclusions: A substantial disparity exists between the amount of tax revenue received by the Australian Government from adolescent drinkers and the overall amount spent in attempting to prevent and relieve some of the problems associated with adolescent problem drinking. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.