Reliability measures for local nodes assessment in classification trees

Most of the modem developments with classification trees are aimed at improving their predictive capacity. This article considers a curiously neglected aspect of classification trees, namely the reliability of predictions that come from a given classification tree. In the sense that a node of a tree represents a point in the predictor space in the limit, the aim of this article is the development of localized assessment of the reliability of prediction rules. A classification tree may be used either to provide a probability forecast, where for each node the membership probabilities for each class constitutes the prediction, or a true classification where each new observation is predictively assigned to a unique class. Correspondingly, two types of reliability measure will be derived-namely, prediction reliability and classification reliability. We use bootstrapping methods as the main tool to construct these measures. We also provide a suite of graphical displays by which they may be easily appreciated. In addition to providing some estimate of the reliability of specific forecasts of each type, these measures can also be used to guide future data collection to improve the effectiveness of the tree model. The motivating example we give has a binary response, namely the presence or absence of a species of Eucalypt, Eucalyptus cloeziana, at a given sampling location in response to a suite of environmental covariates, (although the methods are not restricted to binary response data).

Hyperspace geography: Visualizing fitness landscapes beyond 4D

Human perception is finely tuned to extract structure about the 4D world of time and space as well as properties such as color and texture. Developing intuitions about spatial structure beyond 4D requires exploiting other perceptual and cognitive abilities. One of the most natural ways to explore complex spaces is for a user to actively navigate through them, using local explorations and global summaries to develop intuitions about structure, and then testing the developing ideas by further exploration. This article provides a brief overview of a technique for visualizing surfaces defined over moderate-dimensional binary spaces, by recursively unfolding them onto a 2D hypergraph. We briefly summarize the uses of a freely available Web-based visualization tool, Hyperspace Graph Paper (HSGP), for exploring fitness landscapes and search algorithms in evolutionary computation. HSGP provides a way for a user to actively explore a landscape, from simple tasks such as mapping the neighborhood structure of different points, to seeing global properties such as the size and distribution of basins of attraction or how different search algorithms interact with landscape structure. It has been most useful for exploring recursive and repetitive landscapes, and its strength is that it allows intuitions to be developed through active navigation by the user, and exploits the visual system's ability to detect pattern and texture. The technique is most effective when applied to continuous functions over Boolean variables using 4 to 16 dimensions.

Testing predictions of macroscopic binary diffusion coefficients using lattice models with site heterogeneity

Quantitatively predicting mass transport rates for chemical mixtures in porous materials is important in applications of materials such as adsorbents, membranes, and catalysts. Because directly assessing mixture transport experimentally is challenging, theoretical models that can predict mixture diffusion coefficients using Only single-component information would have many uses. One such model was proposed by Skoulidas, Sholl, and Krishna (Langmuir, 2003, 19, 7977), and applications of this model to a variety of chemical mixtures in nanoporous materials have yielded promising results. In this paper, the accuracy of this model for predicting mixture diffusion coefficients in materials that exhibit a heterogeneous distribution of local binding energies is examined. To examine this issue, single-component and binary mixture diffusion coefficients are computed using kinetic Monte Carlo for a two-dimensional lattice model over a wide range of lattice occupancies and compositions. The approach suggested by Skoulidas, Sholl, and Krishna is found to be accurate in situations where the spatial distribution of binding site energies is relatively homogeneous, but is considerably less accurate for strongly heterogeneous energy distributions.

Heuristic algorithm for computing reversal distance with multigene families via binary integer programming

Hannenhalli and Pevzner developed the first polynomial-time algorithm for the combinatorial problem of sorting of signed genomic data. Their algorithm solves the minimum number of reversals required for rearranging a genome to another when gene duplication is nonexisting. In this paper, we show how to extend the Hannenhalli-Pevzner approach to genomes with multigene families. We propose a new heuristic algorithm to compute the reversal distance between two genomes with multigene families via the concept of binary integer programming without removing gene duplicates. The experimental results on simulated and real biological data demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is able to find the reversal distance accurately. ©2005 IEEE

The spatial pattern of child growth in Papua New Guinea

Child growth in PNG shows strong regional differences, with highlands children being generally shorter but stockier than those from lowland areas. Differences in diet, socioeconomic status and local subsistence agriculture were found to be important predictors of child growth. All variables indicating higher socioeconomic status were correlated with better growth, as was a high consumption of imported and local high quality foods such as cereals, legumes, tinned fish or meat and fresh fish. Differences in subsistence explained between 25% and 50% of the geographical variation in growth. Child growth was better in systems based on cassava and sweet potato, and worse in those where banana, sago and taro are staples. The cultivation of all major cash crops and sales of fish and food crops improved child growth. Birth weights show similar patterns to those observed in child growth. The implications of these findings for possible interventions are discussed.