Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

US hegemony and Southeast Asia - The impact of, and limits to, US power and influence

The United States has exerted a major influence on Southeast Asia, especially since World War II. As both a promoter of neoliberal reform and as the key strategic actor in the wider East Asian region, the impact of U.S. power has been immense. But both the Asian economic crisis and its aftermath, and the more recent war on terror, have highlighted the contradictory impact of evolving U.S. foreign policy and intervention in the region. At both an elite and a mass level there is evidence of resentment about, and hostility toward, U.S. policy and its perceived negative effects. This article outlines how U.S. foreign policy has impacted the region in the economic, political, and security spheres, and argues that not only has it frequently not achieved its goals, but it may in fact be undermining both America's long-term hegemonic position in the region and any prospects for political liberalization.

A reassessment of genetic limits to evolutionary change

An absence of genetic variance in traits under selection is perhaps the oldest explanation for a limit to evolutionary change, but has also been the most easily dismissed. We review a range of theoretical and empirical results covering single traits to more complex multivariate systems, and show that an absence of genetic variance may be more common than is currently appreciated. From a single-trait perspective, we highlight that it is becoming clear that some trait types do not display significant levels of genetic variation, and we raise the possibility that species with restricted ranges may differ qualitatively from more widespread species in levels of genetic variance in ecologically important traits. A common misconception in many life-history studies is that a lack of genetic variance in single traits, and genetic constraints as a consequence of bivariate genetic correlations, are different causes of selection limits. We detail how interpretations of bivariate patterns are unlikely to demonstrate genetic limits to selection in many cases. We advocate a multivariate definition of genetic constraints that emphasizes the presence (or otherwise) of genetic variance in the multivariate direction of selection. For multitrait systems, recent results using longer term studies of organisms, in which more is understood concerning what traits may be under selection, have indicated that selection may exhaust genetic variance, resulting in a limit to the selection response.

How does social security affect economic growth? Evidence from cross-country data

This paper investigates how social security interacts with growth and growth determinants (savings, human capital investment, and fertility). Our empirical investigation finds that the estimated coefficient on social security is significantly negative in the fertility equation, insignificant in the saving equation, and significantly positive in the growth and education equations. By contrast, the estimated coefficient on growth is insignificant in the social security equation. The results suggest that social security may indeed be conducive to growth through tipping the trade-off between the number and quality of children toward the latter.

Use of duckweed, bentonite and acid to improve water quality of effluent discharge from abattoirs

Intensive animal industries create large volumes of nutrient rich effluent, which, if untreated, has the potential for substantial environmental degradation. Aquatic plants in aerobic lagoon systems have the potential to achieve inexpensive and efficient remediation of effluent, and to recover valuable nutrients that would otherwise be lost. Members of the family Lemnaceae (duckweeds) are widely used in lagoon systems, but despite their widespread use in the cleansing of sewage, only limited research has been conducted into their growth in highly eutrophic media, and little has been done to systematically distinguish between different types of media. This study examined the growth characteristics of duckweed in abattoir effluent, and explored possible ways of ameliorating the inhibitory factors to growth on this medium. A series of pot trials was conducted to test the tolerance of duckweed to abattoir effluent partially remediated by a sojourn in anaerobic fermentation ponds, both in its unmodified form, and after the addition of acid to manipulate pH, and the addition of bentonite. Unmodified abattoir effluent was highly toxic to duckweed, although duckweed remained viable and grew sub optimally in media with total ammonia nitrogen (TAN) concentrations of up to 100 mg/l. Duckweed also grew vigorously in effluent diluted 1:4 v/v, containing 56 mg TAN/L and also modified by addition of acid to decrease pH to 7 and by adding bentonite (0.5%).

The role of growth hormone replacement in a growth hormone deficient patient with underlying cardiomyopathy and severe congestive heart failure

It has been reported that-growth hormone (GH) deficiency induced cardiomyopathy responds to growth hormone replacement therapy. We describe the case of a middle-aged male with cardiomyopathic heart failure and growth hormone deficiency of the adult secondary to surgical panhypopituitarism. We demonstrate clinical and hemodynamic improvement of cardiac function with growth hormone replacement therapy despite underlying structural heart disease. Copyright (C) 2005 by the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation.

Direct fermentation of potato starch wastewater to lactic acid by Rhizopus oryzae and Rhizopus arrhizus

The biochemical kinetic of direct fermentation for lactic acid production by fungal species of Rhizopus arrhizus 3,6017 and Rhizopus oryzae 2,062 was studied with respect to growth pH, temperature and substrate. The direct fermentation was characterized by starch hydrolysis, accumulation of reducing sugar, and production of lactic acid and fungal biomass. Starch hydrolysis, reducing sugar accumulation, biomass formation and lactic acid production were affected with the variations in pH, temperature, and starch source and concentration. A growth condition with starch concentration approximately 20 g/l at pH 6.0 and 30 degrees C was favourable for both starch saccharification and lactic acid fermentation, resulting in lactic acid yield of 0.87-0.97 g/g starch associated with 1.5-2.0 g/l fungal biomass produced in 36 h fermentation. R. arrhizus 3,6017 had a higher capacity to produce lactic acid, while R. oryzae 2,062 produced more fungal biomass under similar conditions.

Simultaneous saccharification and fermentation of potato starch wastewater to lactic acid by Rhizopus oryzae and Rhizopus arrhizus

The biochemical kinetic of simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) for lactic acid production by fungal species of Rhizopus arrhizus 36017 and Rhizopus oryzae 2062 was studied with respect to growth pH, temperature and substrate. Both R. arrhizus 36017 and R. oryzae 2062 had a capacity to carry out a single stage SSF process for lactic acid production from potato starch wastewater. The kinetic characteristics, termed as starch hydrolysis, accumulation of reducing sugars, lactic acid production and fungal biomass formation, were affected with variations in pH, temperature, and starch source and concentration. A growth condition with starch concentration approximately 20 g/l at pH 6.0 and 30 degrees C was favourable for both starch saccharification and lactic acid fermentation, resulting in lactic acid yield of 0.85-0.92 g/g associated with 1.5-3.5 g/l fungal biomass produced in 36-48 h fermentation. R. arrhizus 36017 had a higher capacity to produce lactic acid, while R. oryzae 2062 produced more fungal biomass under similar conditions. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phosphate uptake and growth kinetics of Trichodesmium (Cyanobacteria) isolates from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

We compared inorganic phosphate (P-i) uptake and growth kinetics of two cultures of the diazotrophic cyanobacterium Trichodesmium isolated from the North Atlantic Ocean (IMS101) and from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia (GBRTRLI101). Phosphate-limited cultures had up to six times higher maximum P-i uptake rates than P-replete cultures in both strains. For strain GBRTRLI101, cell-specific P-i uptake rates were nearly twice as high, due to larger cell size, but P-specific maximum uptake rates were similar for both isolates. Half saturation constants were 0.4 and 0.6 muM for P-i uptake and 0.1 and 0.2 muM for growth in IMS101 and GBRTRLI101, respectively. Phosphate uptake in both strains was correlated to growth rates rather than to light or temperature. The cellular phosphorus quota for both strains increased with increasing P-i up to 1.0 muM. The C:P ratios were 340-390 and N:P ratios were 40-45 for both strains under severely P-limited growth conditions, similar to reported values for natural populations from the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The C:P and N:P ratios were near Redfield values in medium with >1.0 muM P-i. The North Atlantic strain IMS101 is better adapted to growing on P-i at low concentrations than is GBRTRLI101 from the more P-i-enriched Great Barrier Reef. However, neither strain can achieve appreciable growth at the very low (nanomolar) P-i concentrations found in most oligotrophic regimes. Phosphate could be an important source of phosphorus for Trichodesmium on the Great Barrier Reef, but populations growing in the oligotrophic open ocean must rely primarily on dissolved organic phosphorus sources.

Variation in hydraulic conductivity of mangroves: influence of species, salinity, and nitrogen and phosphorus availability

We investigated how species identity and variation in salinity and nutrient availability influence the hydraulic conductivity of mangroves. Using a fertilization study of two species in Florida, we found that stem hydraulic conductivity expressed on a leaf area basis (K-leaf) was significantly different among species of differing salinity tolerance, but was not significantly altered by enrichment with limiting nutrients. Reviewing data from two additional sites (Panama and Belize), we found an overall pattern of declining leaf-specific hydraulic conductivity (K-leaf) with increasing salinity. Over three sites, a general pattern emerges, indicating that native stem hydraulic conductivity (K-h) and K-leaf are less sensitive to nitrogen (N) fertilization when N limits growth, but more sensitive to phosphorus (P) fertilization when P limits growth. Processes leading to growth enhancement with N fertilization are probably associated with changes in allocation to leaf area and photosynthetic processes, whereas water uptake and transport processes could be more limiting when P limits growth. These findings suggest that whereas salinity and species identity place broad bounds on hydraulic conductivity, the effects of nutrient availability modulate hydraulic conductivity and growth in complex ways.

The Paradoxes of Paramountcy: Regional Rivalries and the Dynamics of American Hegemony in East Asia

It has become increasingly commonplace to describe the United States as hegemonic. And yet, despite America's dominant position at a number of levels strategic, political-economic and ideational, there are plainly limits to US hegemony. These limits and the enduring strengths of American hegemony are revealed quite clearly in East Asia. This paper critically assesses a number of theories of hegemony, and argues that the concept continues to provide a useful way of conceptualising America's evolving relationship with East Asia. Theories of hegemony can, with appropriate caveats, also help us to understand the limits to Chinese and Japanese power in the region; two countries that are routinely cited as potential hegemonic rivals

Optimal cloning for finite distributions of coherent states

We derive optimal cloning limits for finite Gaussian distributions of coherent states and describe techniques for achieving them. We discuss the relation of these limits to state estimation and the no-cloning limit in teleportation. A qualitatively different cloning limit is derived for a single-quadrature Gaussian quantum cloner.

Many-body quantum dynamics of polarization squeezing in optical fibers

We report new experiments that test quantum dynamical predictions of polarization squeezing for ultrashort photonic pulses in a birefringent fiber, including all relevant dissipative effects. This exponentially complex many-body problem is solved by means of a stochastic phase-space method. The squeezing is calculated and compared to experimental data, resulting in excellent quantitative agreement. From the simulations, we identify the physical limits to quantum noise reduction in optical fibers. The research represents a significant experimental test of first-principles time-domain quantum dynamics in a one-dimensional interacting Bose gas coupled to dissipative reservoirs.

Pseudo-messenger RNA: Phantoms of the transcriptome

The mammalian transcriptome harbours shadowy entities that resist classification and analysis. In analogy with pseudogenes, we define pseudo-messenger RNA to be RNA molecules that resemble protein- coding mRNA, but cannot encode full-length proteins owing to disruptions of the reading frame. Using a rigorous computational pipeline, which rules out sequencing errors, we identify 10,679 pseudo - messenger RNAs ( approximately half of which are transposonassociated) among the 102,801 FANTOM3 mouse cDNAs: just over 10% of the FANTOM3 transcriptome. These comprise not only transcribed pseudogenes, but also disrupted splice variants of otherwise protein- coding genes. Some may encode truncated proteins, only a minority of which appear subject to nonsense- mediated decay. The presence of an excess of transcripts whose only disruptions are opal stop codons suggests that there are more selenoproteins than currently estimated. We also describe compensatory frameshifts, where a segment of the gene has changed frame but remains translatable. In summary, we survey a large class of non- standard but potentially functional transcripts that are likely to encode genetic information and effect biological processes in novel ways. Many of these transcripts do not correspond cleanly to any identifiable object in the genome, implying fundamental limits to the goal of annotating all functional elements at the genome sequence level.