Analysis of Melanoma Onset: Assessing Familial Aggregation by Using Estimating Equations and Fitting Variance Components via Bayesian Random Effects Models

We investigate whether relative contributions of genetic and shared environmental factors are associated with an increased risk in melanoma. Data from the Queensland Familial Melanoma Project comprising 15,907 subjects arising from 1912 families were analyzed to estimate the additive genetic, common and unique environmental contributions to variation in the age at onset of melanoma. Two complementary approaches for analyzing correlated time-to-onset family data were considered: the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method in which one can estimate relationship-specific dependence simultaneously with regression coefficients that describe the average population response to changing covariates; and a subject-specific Bayesian mixed model in which heterogeneity in regression parameters is explicitly modeled and the different components of variation may be estimated directly. The proportional hazards and Weibull models were utilized, as both produce natural frameworks for estimating relative risks while adjusting for simultaneous effects of other covariates. A simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for covariate imputation of missing data was used and the actual implementation of the Bayesian model was based on Gibbs sampling using the free ware package BUGS. In addition, we also used a Bayesian model to investigate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental effects on the expression of naevi and freckles, which are known risk factors for melanoma.

Evaluation of the impact of natural enemies on Plutella xylostella L. (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae) populations on commercial Brassica farms

1 Accurate assessment of the impact of natural enemies on pest populations is fundamental to the design of robust integrated pest management programmes. In most situations, diseases, predators and parasitoids act contemporaneously on insect pest populations and the impact of individual natural enemies, or specific groups of natural enemies, is difficult to interpret. These problems are exacerbated in agro-ecosystems that are frequently disrupted by the application of insecticides. 2 A combination of life-table and natural enemy exclusion techniques was utilized to develop a method for the assessment of the impact of endemic natural enemies on Plutella xylostella populations on commercial Brassica farms. 3 At two of the experimental sites, natural enemies had no impact on P. xylostella survival, at two other sites, natural enemy impact was low but, at a fifth site, natural enemies drastically reduced the P. xylostella population. 4 The calculation of marginal death rates and associated k-values allowed the comparison of mortality factors between experimental sites, and indicated that larval disappearance was consistently the most important mortality factor, followed by egg disappearance, larval parasitism and pupal parasitism. The appropriateness of the methods and assumptions made to calculate the marginal death rates are discussed. 5 The technique represents a robust and easily repeatable method for the analysis of the activity of natural enemies of P. xylostella, which could be adapted for the study of other phytophagous pests.

Adult obesity and number of years lived with and without cardiovascular disease

Objective: To determine the differences in number of years lived free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and number of years lived with CVD between men and women who were obese, pre-obese, or normal weight at 45 years of age. Research Methods and Procedures: We constructed multistate life tables for CVD, myocardial infarction, and stroke, using data from 2551 enrollees (1130 men) in the Framingham Heart Study who were 45 years of age. Results: Obesity and pre-obesity were associated with fewer number of years free of CVD, myocardial infarction, and stroke and an increase in the number of years lived with these diseases. Forty-five-year-old obese men with no CVD survived 6.0 years [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.1; 8.1] fewer than their normal weight counterparts, whereas, for women, the difference between obese and normal weight subjects was 8.4 years (95% CI: 6.2; 10.8). Obese men and women lived with CVD 2.7 (95% CI: 1.0; 4.4) and 1.4 years (95% CI: -0.3; 3.2) longer, respectively, than normal weight individuals. Discussion: In addition to reducing life expectancy, obesity before middle age is associated with a reduction in the number of years lived free of CVD and an increase in the number of years lived with CVD. Such information is paramount for preventive and therapeutic decision-making by individuals and practitioners alike.