Identifying trajectories of adolescent smoking: An application of latent growth mixture modeling

The goal of the current study was to identify discrete longitudinal patterns of change in adolescent smoking using latent growth mixture modeling. Five distinct longitudinal patterns were identified. A group of early rapid escalators was characterized by early escalation (at age 13) that rapidly increased to heavy smoking. A pattern characterized by occasional puffing up until age 15, at which time smoking escalated to moderate levels was also identified (late moderate escalators). Another group included adolescents who, after age 15, began to escalate slowly in their smoking to light (0.5 cigarettes per month) levels (late slow escalators). Finally, a group of stable light smokers (those who smoked 1-2 cigarettes per month) and a group of stable puffers (those. who smoked only a few puffs per month) were also identified. The stable puffer group was the largest group and represented 25% of smokers.

Identifying and predicting adolescent smokers' developmental trajectories

Very few studies have defined trajectories of smoking. In the present study, we modeled growth in adolescent smoking and empirically identified prototypical trajectories. We conceptualized escalation of smoking as a growth process and modeled rates of change and heterogeneity of these patterns using latent growth mixture modeling. The analysis identified six trajectories with low ambiguity about group membership (early rapid escalators, late rapid escalators, late moderate escalators, late slow escalators-smokers, stable puffers, and late slow escalators-puffers). A trajectory of quitters was not identified. We also examined predictors of the smoking trajectories. The predictors were assessed across the adolescent years and included variables related to smoking and other substance use, as well as a range of variables related to sociodemographic factors and mental health. Observed change in the pattern of predictors across age has implications for the mechanism of effect of these variables in relation to smoking trajectories, including predictors that differentiated among daily smokers, variables that may determine the trajectory (e.g., friends smoking), and variables that may result from the trajectory (e.g., marijuana use, less attachment to friends).

A population balance model for high shear granulation

In a previous paper, Hoornaert et al. (Powder Technol. 96 (1998); 116-128) presented data from granulation experiments performed in a 50 L Lodige high shear mixer. In this study that same data was simulated with a population balance model. Based on an analysis of the experimental data, the granulation process was divided into three separate stages: nucleation, induction, and coalescence growth. These three stages were then simulated separately, with promising results. it is possible to derive a kernel that fit both the induction and the coalescence growth stage. Modeling the nucleation stage proved to be more challenging due to the complex mechanism of nucleus formation. From this work some recommendations are made for the improvement of this type of model.

The pearl oysters, Pinctada maxima and P margaritifera, respond in different ways to culture in dissimilar environments

Growth, Condition Index (CI) and survival of the pearl oysters, Pinctada maxima and R margaritifera, were measured in three size groups of oysters over 14 months at two dissimilar environments in the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. These were the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) in a mainland bay and Orpheus Island Research Station (OIRS) in coral reef waters. Temperature, suspended particulate matter (SPM) and particulate organic matter (POM) were monitored during the study. Temperature at AIMS fluctuated more widely than at OIRS both daily and seasonally, with annual ranges 20-31 degrees C and 22-30 degrees C, respectively. Mean SPM concentration at AIMS (11.1 mg l(-1)) was much higher than at OIRS (1.4 mg l(-1)) and fluctuated widely (2-60 mg l(-1)). Mean POM level was also substantially higher at AIMS, being 2.1 mg l(-1) compared with 0.56 mg l(-1) at OIRS. Von Bertalatiffy growth curve analyses showed that P. maxima grew more rapidly and to larger sizes than P. margaritifera at both sites. For the shell height (SH) of R maxima, growth index phi'=4.31 and 4.24, asymptotic size SHinfinity = 229 and 205 mm, and time to reach 120 mm SH (T-(120))= 1.9 and 2.1 years at AIMS and OIRS, respectively. While for P margaritifera, phi'=4.00 and 4.15, SHinfinity = 136 and 157 mm, and T-(120) = 2.5 and 3.9 years at AIMS and OIRS, respectively. R maxima had significantly lower growth rates and lower survival of small oysters during winter compared with summer. There were, however, no significant differences between the two sites in growth rates of P. maxima and final Cl values. In contrast, P. margaritifiera showed significant differences between sites and not seasons, with lower growth rates, survival of small oysters, final Cl values and asymptotic sizes at AIMS. The winter low temperatures, but not high SPM at AIMS, adversely affected P. maxima. Conversely, the high SPM levels at AIMS, but not temperature, adversely affected P. margaritifera. This was in accordance with earlier laboratory-based energetics studies of the effects of temperature and SPM on these two species. P maxima has potential to be commercially cultured in ca. > 25 degrees C waters with a wide range of SPM levels, including oligotrophic coral reef waters with appropriate particle sizes. It is possible to culture R margaritifera in turbid conditions, but its poor performance in these conditions makes commercial culture unlikely. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using the level set method to model endogenous lava dome growth

Modeling volcanic phenomena is complicated by free-surfaces often supporting large rheological gradients. Analytical solutions and analogue models provide explanations for fundamental characteristics of lava flows. But more sophisticated models are needed, incorporating improved physics and rheology to capture realistic events. To advance our understanding of the flow dynamics of highly viscous lava in Peléean lava dome formation, axi-symmetrical Finite Element Method (FEM) models of generic endogenous dome growth have been developed. We use a novel technique, the level-set method, which tracks a moving interface, leaving the mesh unaltered. The model equations are formulated in an Eulerian framework. In this paper we test the quality of this technique in our numerical scheme by considering existing analytical and experimental models of lava dome growth which assume a constant Newtonian viscosity. We then compare our model against analytical solutions for real lava domes extruded on Soufrière, St. Vincent, W.I. in 1979 and Mount St. Helens, USA in October 1980 using an effective viscosity. The level-set method is found to be computationally light and robust enough to model the free-surface of a growing lava dome. Also, by modeling the extruded lava with a constant pressure head this naturally results in a drop in extrusion rate with increasing dome height, which can explain lava dome growth observables more appropriately than when using a fixed extrusion rate. From the modeling point of view, the level-set method will ultimately provide an opportunity to capture more of the physics while benefiting from the numerical robustness of regular grids.

Modeling ex vivo hematopoiesis using chemical engineering metaphors

Ex vivo hematopoiesis is increasingly used for clinical applications. Models of ex vivo hematopoiesis are required to better understand the complex dynamics and to optimize hematopoietic culture processes. A general mathematical modeling framework is developed which uses traditional chemical engineering metaphors to describe the complex hematopoietic dynamics. Tanks and tubular reactors are used to describe the (pseudo-) stochastic and deterministic elements of hematopoiesis, respectively. Cells at any point in the differentiation process can belong to either an immobilized, inert phase (quiescent cells) or a mobile, active phase (cycling cells). The model describes five processes: (1) flow (differentiation), (2) autocatalytic formation (growth),(3) degradation (death), (4) phase transition from immobilized to mobile phase (quiescent to cycling transition), and (5) phase transition from mobile to immobilized phase (cycling to quiescent transition). The modeling framework is illustrated with an example concerning the effect of TGF-beta 1 on erythropoiesis. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Growth and lactic acid production in batch culture of Lactobacillus rhamnosus in a defined medium

To facilitate metabolic analysis, batch fermentations of Lactobacillus rhamnosus were carried out in a new defined medium. Biomass at 10.5 g/l and lactic acid at 67 g/l with a Y-P/S of 0.84 were achieved. The maximum specific growth rate and the average productivity were 0.49/h and 2.48 g/l.h, respectively. These are comparable to those of this organism and related organisms in complex media. Preliminary amino acid studies were also conducted, highlighting the importance of serine, asparagine, glutamine and cysteine. Kinetic analysis revealed that lactic acid production was predominantly growth-associated with growth associated and non-growth associated lactic acid constants of 0.389 mol/g-cell and 0.0025 mol/g-cell.h, respectively. Finally a kinetic model has been included to describe the fermentation of L. rhamnosus.

Gender differences in bone geometry during the adolescent growth spurt

To investigate whether there are gender differences in the bone geometry of the proximal femur during the adolescent years we used an interactive computer program ?Hip Strength Analysis? developed by Beck and associates (Beck et al., Invest Radiol. 1990,25:6-18.) to derive femoral neck geometry parameters from DXA bone scans (Hologic 2000, array mode). We analyzed a longitudinal data-set collected on 70 boys and 68 girls over a seven year period. Distance and velocity curves for height were fitted for each child utilizing a cubic spline procedure and the age of peak height velocity (PHV) was determined. To control for maturational differences between children of the same chronological age and between boys and girls, section modulus (Z) an index of bending strength, cross sectional area of bone (CSA), sub-periosteal width (SPW), and BMD values at the neck and shaft of the proximal femur were determined for points on each individual?s curve at the age of PHV and one and two years on either side of peak. To control for size differences, height and weight were introduced as co-variates in the two-way analyses of variance looking at gender over time measured at the maturational age points (-2, -1, age of PHV, +1, +2). The following figure presents the results of the analyses on two variables, BMD and Z at neck and shaft regions:After the age of peak linear growth (PHV), independent of body size, there was a gender difference in BMD at the shaft but not at the neck. Section modulus at both sites indicated that male bones became significantly stronger after PHV. Underlying these maturational changes, male bones became wider (SPW) after PHV in both the neck and shaft and enclosed more material (CSA) at all maturational age points at both regions. These results call into question the emphasis on using BMD as a measure of skeletal integrity in growing children

Modeling of heat transfer in fluidized-bed coating of cylinders

A numerical model of heat transfer in fluidized-bed coating of solid cylinders is presented. By defining suitable dimensionless parameters, the governing equations and its associated initial and boundary conditions are discretized using the method of orthogonal collocation and the resulting ordinary differential equations simultaneously solved for the dimensionless coating thickness and wall temperatures. Parametric Studies showed that the dimensionless coating thickness and wall temperature depend on the relative heat capacities of the polymer powder and object, the latent heat of fusion and the size of the cylinder. Model predictions for the coating thickness and wall temperature compare reasonably well with numerical predictions and experimental coating data in the literature and with our own coating experiments using copper cylinders immersed in nylon-11 and polyethylene powders. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of columnar-to-equiaxed transition in solidified Al-Si alloys

A Cellular-Automaton Finite-Volume-Method (CAFVM) algorithm has been developed, coupling with macroscopic model for heat transfer calculation and microscopic models for nucleation and growth. The solution equations have been solved to determine the time-dependent constitutional undercooling and interface retardation during solidification. The constitutional undercooling is then coupled into the CAFVM algorithm to investigate both the effects of thermal and constitutional undercooling on columnar growth and crystal selection in the columnar zone, and formation of equiaxed crystals in the bulk liquid. The model cannot only simulate microstructures of alloys but also investigates nucleation mechanisms and growth kinetics of alloys solidified with various solute concentrations and solidification morphologies.

Numerical simulation of dendrite growth during solidification

A comprehensive probabilistic model for simulating dendrite morphology and investigating dendritic growth kinetics during solidification has been developed, based on a modified Cellular Automaton (mCA) for microscopic modeling of nucleation, growth of crystals and solute diffusion. The mCA model numerically calculated solute redistribution both in the solid and liquid phases, the curvature of dendrite tips and the growth anisotropy. This modeling takes account of thermal, curvature and solute diffusion effects. Therefore, it can simulate microstructure formation both on the scale of the dendrite tip length. This model was then applied for simulating dendritic solidification of an Al-7%Si alloy. Both directional and equiaxed dendritic growth has been performed to investigate the growth anisotropy and cooling rate on dendrite morphology. Furthermore, the competitive growth and selection of dendritic crystals have also investigated.

Will Bangladesh's economic growth solve its environmental problems?

Bangladesh has experienced rising GDP and rising per capita incomes now for at least three decades. This article considers whether its continuing economic growth is likely to solve its environmental problems. In doing so, it critically considers the application to Bangladesh of Environmental Kuznets Curve relationships and applies other macro-methods of assessing the relationship between economic growth and the environment to Bangladesh’s situation. The consequences of Bangladesh's economic reforms for the economic welfare of Bangladeshis and the state of Bangladesh's environment are also examined. Particular attention is given to environmental change in agriculture in the light of Bangladesh economic growth, reforms and proposed growth strategy. Doubts are expressed about the environmental benefits claimed by the Bangladeshi Government for its agricultural development strategy. Indeed, it may exacerbate many existing environmental problems, such as depletion of soil fertility and water supplies, already present.

Globalisation and sustainability: environmental Kuznets curve and the WTO

Economic globalisation is seen by many as a driving force for global economic growth. Yet opinion is divided about the benefits of this process, as highlighted by the WTO meeting in Seattle in late 1999. Proponents of economic globalisation view it as a positive force for environmental improvement and as a major factor increasing the likelihood of sustainable development through its likely boost to global investment. These proponents mostly appeal to analysis based on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) to support their views about environmental improvement. But EKC-analysis has significant deficiencies. Furthermore, it is impossible to be confident that the process of economic globalisation will result in sustainable development, if 'weak conditions' only are satisfied. 'Strong conditions' probably need to be satisfied to achieve sustainable development, and given current global institutional arrangements, these are likely to be violated by the economic globalisation process. Global political action seems to be needed-to avert a deterioration in the global environment and to prevent unsustainability of development. This exposition demonstrates the limitations of EKC-analysis, identifies positive and negative effects of economic globalisation on pollution levels, and highlights connections between globalisation and the debate about whether strong or weak conditions are required for sustainable development. The article concludes with a short discussion of the position of WTO in relation to trade and the environment and the seemingly de facto endorsement of WTO of weak conditions for sustainable development. It suggests that WTO's relative neglect of environmental concerns is no longer politically tenable and needs to be reassessed in the light of recent developments in economic analysis. The skew of economic growth, e.g. in favour of developing countries, is shown to be extremely important from a global environmental perspective. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.