Identifying and predicting adolescent smokers' developmental trajectories

Very few studies have defined trajectories of smoking. In the present study, we modeled growth in adolescent smoking and empirically identified prototypical trajectories. We conceptualized escalation of smoking as a growth process and modeled rates of change and heterogeneity of these patterns using latent growth mixture modeling. The analysis identified six trajectories with low ambiguity about group membership (early rapid escalators, late rapid escalators, late moderate escalators, late slow escalators-smokers, stable puffers, and late slow escalators-puffers). A trajectory of quitters was not identified. We also examined predictors of the smoking trajectories. The predictors were assessed across the adolescent years and included variables related to smoking and other substance use, as well as a range of variables related to sociodemographic factors and mental health. Observed change in the pattern of predictors across age has implications for the mechanism of effect of these variables in relation to smoking trajectories, including predictors that differentiated among daily smokers, variables that may determine the trajectory (e.g., friends smoking), and variables that may result from the trajectory (e.g., marijuana use, less attachment to friends).

A population balance model for high shear granulation

In a previous paper, Hoornaert et al. (Powder Technol. 96 (1998); 116-128) presented data from granulation experiments performed in a 50 L Lodige high shear mixer. In this study that same data was simulated with a population balance model. Based on an analysis of the experimental data, the granulation process was divided into three separate stages: nucleation, induction, and coalescence growth. These three stages were then simulated separately, with promising results. it is possible to derive a kernel that fit both the induction and the coalescence growth stage. Modeling the nucleation stage proved to be more challenging due to the complex mechanism of nucleus formation. From this work some recommendations are made for the improvement of this type of model.

The pearl oysters, Pinctada maxima and P margaritifera, respond in different ways to culture in dissimilar environments

Growth, Condition Index (CI) and survival of the pearl oysters, Pinctada maxima and R margaritifera, were measured in three size groups of oysters over 14 months at two dissimilar environments in the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. These were the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) in a mainland bay and Orpheus Island Research Station (OIRS) in coral reef waters. Temperature, suspended particulate matter (SPM) and particulate organic matter (POM) were monitored during the study. Temperature at AIMS fluctuated more widely than at OIRS both daily and seasonally, with annual ranges 20-31 degrees C and 22-30 degrees C, respectively. Mean SPM concentration at AIMS (11.1 mg l(-1)) was much higher than at OIRS (1.4 mg l(-1)) and fluctuated widely (2-60 mg l(-1)). Mean POM level was also substantially higher at AIMS, being 2.1 mg l(-1) compared with 0.56 mg l(-1) at OIRS. Von Bertalatiffy growth curve analyses showed that P. maxima grew more rapidly and to larger sizes than P. margaritifera at both sites. For the shell height (SH) of R maxima, growth index phi'=4.31 and 4.24, asymptotic size SHinfinity = 229 and 205 mm, and time to reach 120 mm SH (T-(120))= 1.9 and 2.1 years at AIMS and OIRS, respectively. While for P margaritifera, phi'=4.00 and 4.15, SHinfinity = 136 and 157 mm, and T-(120) = 2.5 and 3.9 years at AIMS and OIRS, respectively. R maxima had significantly lower growth rates and lower survival of small oysters during winter compared with summer. There were, however, no significant differences between the two sites in growth rates of P. maxima and final Cl values. In contrast, P. margaritifiera showed significant differences between sites and not seasons, with lower growth rates, survival of small oysters, final Cl values and asymptotic sizes at AIMS. The winter low temperatures, but not high SPM at AIMS, adversely affected P. maxima. Conversely, the high SPM levels at AIMS, but not temperature, adversely affected P. margaritifera. This was in accordance with earlier laboratory-based energetics studies of the effects of temperature and SPM on these two species. P maxima has potential to be commercially cultured in ca. > 25 degrees C waters with a wide range of SPM levels, including oligotrophic coral reef waters with appropriate particle sizes. It is possible to culture R margaritifera in turbid conditions, but its poor performance in these conditions makes commercial culture unlikely. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Growth hormone, insulin-like growth factor I and cell proliferation in the mouse blastocyst

The role of growth hormone (GH) in embryonic growth is controversial, yet preimplantation embryos express GH, insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) and their receptors. In this study, addition of bovine GH doubled the proportion of two-cell embryos forming blastocysts and increased by about 25% the number of cells in those blastocysts with a concentration-response curve showing maximal activity at 1 pg bovine GH ml(-1), with decreasing activity at higher and lower concentrations. GH increased the number of cells in the trophectoderm by 25%, but did not affect the inner cell mass of blastocysts. Inhibition of cell proliferation by anti-GH antiserum indicated that GH is a potent autocrine or paracrine regulator of the number of trophectoderm cells in vivo. Type 1 IGF receptors (IGF1R) were localized to cytoplasmic vesicles and plasma membrane in the apical domains of uncompacted and compacted eight-cell embryos, but were predominantly apparent in cytoplasmic vesicles of the trophectoderm cells of the blastocyst, similar to GH receptors. Studies using alphaIR3 antiserum which blocks ligand activation of IGF1R, showed that IGF1R participate in the autocrine or paracrine regulation of the number of cells in the inner cell mass by an endogenous IGF-I-IGF1R pathway. However, alphaIR3 did not affect GH stimulation of the number of trophectoderm cells. Therefore, CH does not use secondary actions via embryonic IGF-I to modify the number of blastocyst cells. This result indicates that GH and IGF-I act independently. GH may selectively regulate the number of trophectoderm cells and thus implantation and placental growth. Embryonic GH may act in concert with IGF-I, which stimulates proliferation in the inner cell mass, to optimize blastocyst development.

Latent class and genetic analysis does not support migraine with aura and migraine without aura as separate entities

Latent class and genetic analyses were used to identify subgroups of migraine sufferers in a community sample of 6,265 Australian twins (55% female) aged 25-36 who had completed an interview based on International Headache Society UHS) criteria. Consistent with prevalence rates from other population-based studies, 703 (20%) female and 250 (9%) male twins satisfied the IHS criteria for migraine without aura (MO), and of these, 432 (13%) female and 166 (6%) male twins satisfied the criteria for migraine with aura (MA) as indicated by visual symptoms. Latent class analysis (LCA) of IHS symptoms identified three major symptomatic classes, representing 1) a mild form of recurrent nonmigrainous headache, 2) a moderately severe form of migraine, typically without visual aura symptoms (although 40% of individuals in this class were positive for aura), and 3) a severe form of migraine typically with visual aura symptoms (although 24% of individuals were negative for aura). Using the LCA classification, many more individuals were considered affected to some degree than when using IHS criteria (35% vs. 13%). Furthermore, genetic model fitting indicated a greater genetic contribution to migraine using the LCA classification (heritability, h(2) =0.40; 95% CI, 0.29-0.46) compared with the IHS classification (h(2)=0.36; 95% CI, 0.22-0.42). Exploratory latent class modeling, fitting up to 10 classes, did not identify classes corresponding to either the IHS MO or MA classification. Our data indicate the existence of a continuum of severity, with MA more severe but not etiologically distinct from MO. In searching for predisposing genes, we should therefore expect to find some genes that may underlie all major recurrent headache subtypes, with modifying genetic or environmental factors that may lead to differential expression of the liability for migraine. (C) 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Sexual dimorphism of the femoral neck during the adolescent growth spurt: a structural analysis

Before puberty, there are only small sex differences in body shape and composition. During adolescence, sexual dimorphism in bone, lean, and fat mass increases, giving rise to the greater size and strength of the male skeleton. The question remains as to whether there are sex differences in bone strength or simply differences in anthropometric dimensions. To test this, we applied hip structural analysis (HSA) to derive strength and geometric indices of the femoral neck using bone densitometry scans (DXA) from a 6-year longitudinal study in Canadian children. Seventy boys and sixty-eight girls were assessed annually for 6 consecutive years. At the femoral neck, cross-sectional area (CSA, an index of axial strength), subperiosteal width (SPW), and section modulus (Z, an index of bending strength) were determined, and data were analyzed using a hierarchical (random effects) modeling approach. Biological age (BA) was defined as years from age at peak height velocity (PHV). When BA, stature, and total-body lean mass (TB lean) were controlled, boys had significantly higher Z than girls at all maturity levels (P < 0.05). Controlling height and TB lean for CSA demonstrated a significant independent sex by BA interaction effect (P < 0.05). That is, CSA was greater in boys before PHV but higher in girls after PHV The coefficients contributing the greatest proportion to the prediction of CSA, SPW, and Z were height and lean mass. Because the significant sex difference in Z was relatively small and close to the error of measurement, we questioned its biological significance. The sex difference in bending strength was therefore explained by anthropometric differences. In contrast to recent hypotheses, we conclude that the CSA-lean ratio does not imply altered mechanosensitivity in girls because bending dominates loading at the neck, and the Z-lean ratio remained similar between the sexes throughout adolescence. That is, despite the greater CSA in girls, the bone is strategically placed to resist bending; hence, the bones of girls and boys adapt to mechanical challenges in a similar way. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Green turtle somatic growth dynamics in a spatially disjunct Great Barrier Reef metapopulation

The growth dynamics of green sea turtles resident in four separate foraging grounds of the southern Great Barrier Reef genetic stock were assessed using a nonparametric regression modeling approach. Juveniles recruit to these grounds at the same size, but grow at foraging-ground-dependent rates that result in significant differences in expected size- or age-at-maturity. Mean age-at-maturity was estimated to vary from 25-50 years depending on the ground. This stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, so geographic variability might be due to local environmental conditions rather than genetic factors, although the variability was not a function of latitudinal variation in environmental conditions or whether the food stock was seagrass or algae. Temporal variability in growth rates was evident in response to local environmental stochasticity, so geographic variability might be due to local food stock dynamics. Despite such variability, the expected size-specific growth rate function at all grounds displayed a similar nonmonotonic growth pattern with a juvenile growth spurt at 60-70 cm curved carapace length, (CCL) or 15-20 years of age. Sex-specific growth differences were also evident with females tending to grow faster than similar-sized males after the Juvenile growth spurt. It is clear that slow sex-specific growth displaying both spatial and temporal variability and a juvenile growth spurt are distinct growth behaviors of green turtles from this stock.

A preform design method for sheet superplastic bulging with finite element modeling

Superplastic bulging is the most successful application of superplastic forming (SPF) in industry, but the non-uniform wall thickness distribution of parts formed by it is a common technical problem yet to be overcome. Based on a rigid-viscoplastic finite element program developed by the authors, for simulation of the sheet superplastic forming process combined with the prediction of microstructure variations (such as grain growth and cavity growth), a simple and efficient preform design method is proposed and applied to the design of preform mould for manufacturing parts with uniform wall thickness. Examples of formed parts are presented here to demonstrate that the technology can be used to improve the uniformity of wall thickness to meet practical requirements. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How do practitioners use conceptual modeling in practice?

Much research has been devoted over the years to investigating and advancing the techniques and tools used by analysts when they model. As opposed to what academics, software providers and their resellers promote as should be happening, the aim of this research was to determine whether practitioners still embraced conceptual modeling seriously. In addition, what are the most popular techniques and tools used for conceptual modeling? What are the major purposes for which conceptual modeling is used? The study found that the top six most frequently used modeling techniques and methods were ER diagramming, data flow diagramming, systems flowcharting, workflow modeling, UML, and structured charts. Modeling technique use was found to decrease significantly from smaller to medium-sized organizations, but then to increase significantly in larger organizations (proxying for large, complex projects). Technique use was also found to significantly follow an inverted U-shaped curve, contrary to some prior explanations. Additionally, an important contribution of this study was the identification of the factors that uniquely influence the decision of analysts to continue to use modeling, viz., communication (using diagrams) to/from stakeholders, internal knowledge (lack of) of techniques, user expectations management, understanding models' integration into the business, and tool/software deficiencies. The highest ranked purposes for which modeling was undertaken were database design and management, business process documentation, business process improvement, and software development. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling hybridoma cell metabolism using a generic genome-scale metabolic model of Mus musculus

The reconstructed cellular metabolic network of Mus musculus, based on annotated genomic data, pathway databases, and currently available biochemical and physiological information, is presented. Although incomplete, it represents the first attempt to collect and characterize the metabolic network of a mammalian cell on the basis of genomic data. The reaction network is generic in nature and attempts to capture the carbon, energy, and nitrogen metabolism of the cell. The metabolic reactions were compartmentalized between the cytosol and the mitochondria, including transport reactions between the compartments and the extracellular medium. The reaction list consists of 872 internal metabolites involved in a total of 1220 reactions, whereof 473 relate to known open reading frames. Initial in silico analysis of the reconstructed model is presented.

Modeling the age of tropical moist forest fragments in heavily-cleared lowland landscapes of Colombia

Increasingly, large areas of native tropical forests are being transformed into a mosaic of human dominated land uses with scattered mature remnants and secondary forests. In general, at the end of the land clearing process, the landscape will have two forest components: a stable component of surviving mature forests, and a dynamic component of secondary forests of different ages. As the proportion of mature forests continues to decline, secondary forests play an increasing role in the conservation and restoration of biodiversity. This paper aims to predict and explain spatial and temporal patterns in the age of remnant mature and secondary forests in lowland Colombian landscapes. We analyse the age distributions of forest fragments, using detailed temporal land cover data derived from aerial photographs. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was applied to model the spatial dynamics of mature and secondary forest patches. In particular, the effect of soil fertility, accessibility and auto-correlated neighbourhood terms on forest age and time of isolation of remnant patches was assessed. In heavily transformed landscapes, forests account for approximately 8% of the total landscape area, of which three quarters are comprised of secondary forests. Secondary forest growth adjacent to mature forest patches increases mean patch size and core area, and therefore plays an important ecological role in maintaining landscape structure. The regression models show that forest age is positively associated with the amount of neighbouring forest, and negatively associated with the amount of neighbouring secondary vegetation, so the older the forest is the less secondary vegetation there is adjacent to it. Accessibility and soil fertility also have a negative but variable influence on the age of forest remnants. The probability of future clearing if current conditions hold is higher for regenerated than mature forests. The challenge of biodiversity conservation and restoration in dynamic and spatially heterogeneous landscape mosaics composed of mature and secondary forests is discussed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of water retention curve from mercury intrusion porosimetry and van Genuchten model

The water retention curve (WRC) is a hydraulic characteristic of concrete required for advanced modeling of water (and thus solute) transport in variably saturated, heterogeneous concrete. Unfortunately, determination by a direct experimental method (for example, measuring equilibrium moisture levels of large samples stored in constant humidity cells) is a lengthy process, taking over 2 years for large samples. A surrogate approach is presented in which the WRC is conveniently estimated from mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) and validated by water sorption isotherms: The well-known Barrett, Joyner and Halenda (BJH) method of estimating the pore size distribution (PSD) from the water sorption isotherm is shown to complement the PSD derived from conventional MIP. This provides a basis for predicting the complete WRC from MIP data alone. The van Genuchten equation is used to model the combined water sorption and MIP results. It is a convenient tool for describing water retention characteristics over the full moisture content range. The van Genuchten parameter estimation based solely on MIP is shown to give a satisfactory approximation to the WRC, with a simple restriction on one. of the parameters.

Age and growth in olive ridley seaturtles (Lepidochelys olivacea) from the north-central Pacific: a skeletochronological analysis

The olive ridley is the most abundant seaturtle species in the world but little is known of the demography of this species. We used skeletochronological data on humerus diameter growth changes to estimate the age of North Pacific olive ridley seaturtles caught incidentally by pelagic longline fisheries operating near Hawaii and from dead turtles washed ashore on the main Hawaiian Islands. Two age estimation methods [ranking, correction factor (CF)] were used and yielded age estimates ranging from 5 to 38 and 7 to 24 years, respectively. Rank age-estimates are highly correlated (r = 0.93) with straight carapace length (SCL), CF age estimates are not (r = 0.62). We consider the CF age-estimates as biologically more plausible because of the disassociation of age and size. Using the CF age-estimates, we then estimate the median age at sexual maturity to be around 13 years old (mean carapace size c. 60 cm SCL) and found that somatic growth was negligible by 15 years of age. The expected age-specific growth rate function derived using numerical differentiation suggests at least one juvenile growth spurt at about 10–12 years of age when maximum age-specific growth rates, c. 5 cm SCL year−1, are apparent.

Effect of solute on the growth rate and the constitutional undercooling ahead of the advancing interface during solidification of an alloy and the implications for nucleation

A framework is presented for modeling the nucleation in the constitutionally supercooled liquid ahead of the advancing solid/liquid interface. The effects of temperature gradient, imposed velocity, slope of liquidus, and initial concentration have been taken into account in this model by considering the effect of interface retardation, which is caused by solute buildup at the interface. Furthermore, the effect of solute concentration on the chemical driving force for nucleation has been considered in this model. The model is used for describing the nucleation of Al-Si and Al-Cu alloys. It was found that the solute of Si has a significant impact on the chemical driving force for nucleation in AI-Si alloys whereas Cu has almost no effect in Al-Cu alloys.