Construction of an Intraplate Fault System Model of South Australia, and Simulation Tool for the iSERVO Institute Seed Project

To foster ongoing international cooperation beyond ACES (APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation) on the simulation of solid earth phenomena, agreement was reached to work towards establishment of a frontier international research institute for simulating the solid earth: iSERVO = International Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory institute (http://www.iservo.edu.au). This paper outlines a key Australian contribution towards the iSERVO institute seed project, this is the construction of: (1) a typical intraplate fault system model using practical fault system data of South Australia (i.e., SA interacting fault model), which includes data management and editing, geometrical modeling and mesh generation; and (2) a finite-element based software tool, which is built on our long-term and ongoing effort to develop the R-minimum strategy based finite-element computational algorithm and software tool for modelling three-dimensional nonlinear frictional contact behavior between multiple deformable bodies with the arbitrarily-shaped contact element strategy. A numerical simulation of the SA fault system is carried out using this software tool to demonstrate its capability and our efforts towards seeding the iSERVO Institute.

A 2D numerical model for simulating the physics of fault systems

Simulations provide a powerful means to help gain the understanding of crustal fault system physics required to progress towards the goal of earthquake forecasting. Cellular Automata are efficient enough to probe system dynamics but their simplifications render interpretations questionable. In contrast, sophisticated elasto-dynamic models yield more convincing results but are too computationally demanding to explore phase space. To help bridge this gap, we develop a simple 2D elastodynamic model of parallel fault systems. The model is discretised onto a triangular lattice and faults are specified as split nodes along horizontal rows in the lattice. A simple numerical approach is presented for calculating the forces at medium and split nodes such that general nonlinear frictional constitutive relations can be modeled along faults. Single and multi-fault simulation examples are presented using a nonlinear frictional relation that is slip and slip-rate dependent in order to illustrate the model.

Effect of material anisotropy on the onset of convective flow in three-dimensional fluid-saturated faults

In order to investigate the effect of material anisotropy on convective instability of three-dimensional fluid-saturated faults, an exact analytical solution for the critical Rayleigh number of three-dimensional convective flow has been obtained. Using this critical Rayleigh number, effects of different permeability ratios and thermal conductivity ratios on convective instability of a vertically oriented three-dimensional fault have been examined in detail. It has been recognized that (1) if the fault material is isotropic in the horizontal direction, the horizontal to vertical permeability ratio has a significant effect on the critical Rayleigh number of the three-dimensional fault system, but the horizontal to vertical thermal conductivity ratio has little influence on the convective instability of the system, and (2) if the fault material is isotropic in the fault plane, the thermal conductivity ratio of the fault normal to plane has a considerable effect on the critical Rayleigh number of the three-dimensional fault system, but the effect of the permeability ratio of the fault normal to plane on the critical Rayleigh number of three-dimensional convective flow is negligible.

The plausibility of long-wavelength stress correlation or stress magnitude as a mechanism for precursory seismicity: Results from two simple elastic models

Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term eartquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

40Ar/39Ar constraints on a temporal link between gold mineralization, magmatism, and continental margin transtension in the Jiaodong Gold Province, eastern China

The Jiaodong gold province is the largest gold repository in China. Both mineralization and granitoid hosts are spatially related to the crustal-scale Tan-Lu strike-slip fault system, which developed along the Mesozoic continental margin in eastern China. A series of Ar-40/Ar-39 laser incremental heating analyses of hydrothermal sericite/muscovite from three major gold deposits (Jiaojia, Xincheng, and Wangershan) and igneous biotite from the granodiorite hosts were performed to establish a possible temporal link between gold mineralization, magmatism, and movement along the Tan-Lu fault zone. Magmatic biotite crystals yield well-defined and concordant plateau ages between 124.5+/-0.4 Ma and 124.0+/-0.4 Ma (2sigma), whereas sericite and muscovite samples (a total of 30 single separates) give reproducible plateau ages ranging from 121.0+/-0.4 Ma to 119.2+/-0.2 Ma (2sigma). An integration of our Ar-40/Ar-39 results with age data from other major gold deposits in Jiaodong demonstrates that widespread gold mineralization occurred contemporaneously during a 2-3-m.yr. period. Most gold deposits show intimate spatial associations with abundant mafic to intermediate dikes. The mafic dikes have K-Ar ages of 123.5-119.6 Ma, in excellent agreement with those of the gold deposits. These newly obtained Ar-40/Ar-39 ages, in combination with other independent geological and geochronological data on granodioritic intrusions (130-126 Ma), volcanic rocks (1243.6-114.7 Ma), and deformed rocks within strike-slip faults (132-120 Ma) in Jiaodong or adjacent areas, also support the idea that gold mineralization postdated the granodioritic magmatism but was contemporaneous with mafic magmatism and volcanism, all controlled by the transtensional motion along the Tan-Lu fault in the Early Cretaceous.