Formal analysis of human-computer interaction using model checking

Experiments with simulators allow psychologists to better understand the causes of human errors and build models of cognitive processes to be used in human reliability assessment (HRA). This paper investigates an approach to task failure analysis based on patterns of behaviour, by contrast to more traditional event-based approaches. It considers, as a case study, a formal model of an air traffic control (ATC) system which incorporates controller behaviour. The cognitive model is formalised in the CSP process algebra. Patterns of behaviour are expressed as temporal logic properties. Then a model-checking technique is used to verify whether the decomposition of the operator's behaviour into patterns is sound and complete with respect to the cognitive model. The decomposition is shown to be incomplete and a new behavioural pattern is identified, which appears to have been overlooked in the analysis of the data provided by the experiments with the simulator. This illustrates how formal analysis of operator models can yield fresh insights into how failures may arise in interactive systems.

Simulation of air traffic controllers' behaviour using the operator choice model

The Operator Choice Model (OCM) was developed to model the behaviour of operators attending to complex tasks involving interdependent concurrent activities, such as in Air Traffic Control (ATC). The purpose of the OCM is to provide a flexible framework for modelling and simulation that can be used for quantitative analyses in human reliability assessment, comparison between human computer interaction (HCI) designs, and analysis of operator workload. The OCM virtual operator is essentially a cycle of four processes: Scan Classify Decide Action Perform Action. Once a cycle is complete, the operator will return to the Scan process. It is also possible to truncate a cycle and return to Scan after each of the processes. These processes are described using Continuous Time Probabilistic Automata (CTPA). The details of the probability and timing models are specific to the domain of application, and need to be specified using domain experts. We are building an application of the OCM for use in ATC. In order to develop a realistic model we are calibrating the probability and timing models that comprise each process using experimental data from a series of experiments conducted with student subjects. These experiments have identified the factors that influence perception and decision making in simplified conflict detection and resolution tasks. This paper presents an application of the OCM approach to a simple ATC conflict detection experiment. The aim is to calibrate the OCM so that its behaviour resembles that of the experimental subjects when it is challenged with the same task. Its behaviour should also interpolate when challenged with scenarios similar to those used to calibrate it. The approach illustrated here uses logistic regression to model the classifications made by the subjects. This model is fitted to the calibration data, and provides an extrapolation to classifications in scenarios outside of the calibration data. A simple strategy is used to calibrate the timing component of the model, and the results for reaction times are compared between the OCM and the student subjects. While this approach to timing does not capture the full complexity of the reaction time distribution seen in the data from the student subjects, the mean and the tail of the distributions are similar.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Key issues in determining the ethics of research subject payment: the special case of drug abuse epidemiology

The authors identify key issues that researchers, funding bodies, ethics committees and ethicists might consider in contemplating research subject payment ethics. They argue that what is missing from the broader debate is due consideration of ethics committee decision processes; research subject reasons for participation; and current research practices. The authors explore these issues and how they relate to existing guidelines on voluntary consent, and arguments that have been proposed for and against research subject payments. (non- author abstract)

A novel bioassay for human somatogenic activity in serum samples supports the clinical reliability of immunoassays

OBJECTIVE Because there is discordance between different immunoassay values for serum hGH, and because clinical state may not correlate with immunoreactive hGH, we have developed an assay to accurately measure serum hGH somatogenic bioactivity. The results of this assay were compared with the Elegance two-site ELISA assay across 135 patient samples in a variety of clinical states. DESIGN The somatogenic assay was based on stable expression of hGH receptor in the murine BaF line, allowing these cells to proliferate in response to hGH. To eliminate interference by other growth factors in serum, we created a specific antagonist of the hGH receptor (similar to Trovert or Pegvisomant) which allowed us to obtain a true measure of hGH somatogenic activity by subtraction of the activity in the presence of the antagonist. The assay was carried out in microtiter plates over 24 h, with oxidation of a chromogenic tetrazolium salt (MTT) as the endpoint. PATIENTS These encompassed a number of different clinical conditions related to short stature, including idiopathic short stature, neurosecretory dysfunction and renal failure, as well as obese patients on dietary restriction and normal volunteers. MEASUREMENTS In addition to the colourimetric (MTT) response to hGH, we measured free hGH by stripping out GHBP-bound hGH using beads coupled to a monoclonal antibody to the GHBP (GH binding protein). All samples were measured in both bioassay and ELISA assay. RESULTS This bioassay was sensitive (5 mU/l or 2 mug/l) and precise, and not subject to interference by the GHBP. There was a good correlation (r = 0.95) between bioactivity and immunoactivity across clinical states. There was, however, an increased bioactivity during secretory peaks (over 25 mU/l), which has been reported previously for the Nb2 bioassay. Free hGH did not correlate with clinical state. CONCLUSIONS Because the results of the Elegance ELISA and the bioassay correlate well, even though there is greater bioactivity at higher hormone concentrations, it is evident that an appropriate immunoassay is able to act as a reliable indicator for clinical assessment. In those rare cases where bio-inactive GH exists, our bioassay should provide an appropriate means to demonstrate this.

Immune correlate study on human Schistosoma japonicum in a well-defined population in Leyte, Philippines: I. Assessment of 'resistance' versus 'susceptibility' to S-japonicum infection

This study describes the categorical classification of 155 individuals living in an endemic village in Macanip, Leyte, Philippines as 'resistant' or 'susceptible' to Schistosoma japonicum infection using available exposure, infection and reinfection data collected from a 3-year water contact (WC) study. Epidemiological parameters including age, sex, and infection intensities in relation to observed reinfection patterns are also described. This classification was used in subsequent immunological studies described in two accompanying papers to identify protective immune mechanisms among resistant individuals induced by defined candidate vaccine molecules for S. japonicum. The study suggests that individuals who were most vulnerable to rapid reinfection were children belonging to the 5-14 age group. A drop in incidence at age group 15-19 and decreased intensity of infection starting at this age group and older (15+) suggests development of immunity. Controlling for the effect of the other variables, a multivariate analysis showed significant association for sex, in that females were more likely to be resistant. This implies that other than acquired immunity to infection, some age-dependent host factors may also play an important role in the overall changes of reinfection patterns seen in schistosomiasis japonica in this population. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing childrens competence in computer interactions: Preliminary reliability and validity of the test of mouse proficiency

The Test of Mouse Proficiency (TOMP) was developed to assist occupational therapists and education professionals assess computer mouse competency skills in children from preschool to upper primary (elementary) school age. The preliminary reliability and validity of TOMP are reported in this paper. Methods used to examine the internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and criterion- and construct-related validity of the test are elaborated. In the continuing process of test refinement, these preliminary studies support to varying degrees the reliability and validity of TOMP. Recommendations for further validation of the assessment are discussed along with indications for potential clinical application.

Reliability of electromyographic and torque measures during isometric axial rotation exertions of the trunk

Objective: The aim of the present study was to investigate the between-days reliability of electromyographic (EMG) measurement of 6 bilateral trunk muscles and also the torque output in 3 planes during isometric right and left axial rotation at different exertion levels. Methods: Ten healthy subjects performed isometric right and left axial rotation at 100, 70, 50 and 30% maximum voluntary contractions in two testing sessions at least 7 days apart. EMG amplitude and frequency analyses of the recorded surface EMG signals were performed for rectus abdominis, external oblique, internal oblique, latissimus dorsi, iliocostalis lumborum and multifidus bilaterally. The primary torque in the transverse plane and the coupling torques in sagittal and coronal planes were measured. Results: For both EMG amplitude and frequency values, good (intraclass correlation coefficient, ICC = 0.75-0.89) to excellent (ICC greater than or equal to 0.90) reliability was found in the 6 trunk muscles at different exertion levels during axial rotation. The reliability of both maximal isometric axial rotation torque and coupling torques in sagittal and coronal planes were found to be excellent (ICC greater than or equal to 0.93). Conclusions: Good to excellent reliability of EMG measures of trunk muscles and torque measurements during isometric axial rotation was demonstrated. This provides further confidence of using EMG and triaxial torque assessment as outcome measures in rehabilitation and in the evaluation of the human performance in the work place. (C) 2003 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transdermal penetration of vasoconstrictors - Present understanding and assessment of the human epidermal flux and retention of free bases and ion-pairs

Purpose. As reductions in dermal clearance increase the residence time of solutes in the skin and underlying tissues we compared the topical penetration of potentially useful vasoconstrictors (VCs) through human epidermis as both free bases and ion-pairs with salicylic acid (SA). Methods. We determined the in vitro epidermal flux of ephedrine, naphazoline, oxymetazoline, phenylephrine, and xylometazoline applied as saturated solutions in propylene glycol: water (1: 1) and of ephedrine, naphazoline and tetrahydrozoline as 10% solutions of 1: 1 molar ratio ion-pairs with SA in liquid paraffin. Results. As free bases, ephedrine had the highest maximal flux, Jmax = 77.4 +/- 11.7 mug/cm(2)/h, being 4-fold higher than tetrahydrozoline and xylometazoline, 6-fold higher than phenylephrine, 10-fold higher than naphazoline and 100-fold higher than oxymetazoline. Stepwise regression of solute physicochemical properties identified melting point as the most significant predictor of flux. As ion-pairs with SA, ephedrine and naphazoline had similar fluxes (11.5 +/- 2.3 and 12.0 +/- 1.6 mug/cm(2)/h respectively), whereas tetrahydrozoline was approximately 3-fold slower. Corresponding fluxes of SA from the ion-pairs were 18.6 +/- 0.6, 7.8 +/- 0.8 and 1.1 +/- 0.1 respectively. Transdermal transport of VC's is discussed. Conclusions. Epidermal retention of VCs and SA did not correspond to their molar ratio on application and confirmed that following partitioning into the stratum corneum, ion-pairs separate and further penetration is governed by individual solute characteristics.

Reliability measures for local nodes assessment in classification trees

Most of the modem developments with classification trees are aimed at improving their predictive capacity. This article considers a curiously neglected aspect of classification trees, namely the reliability of predictions that come from a given classification tree. In the sense that a node of a tree represents a point in the predictor space in the limit, the aim of this article is the development of localized assessment of the reliability of prediction rules. A classification tree may be used either to provide a probability forecast, where for each node the membership probabilities for each class constitutes the prediction, or a true classification where each new observation is predictively assigned to a unique class. Correspondingly, two types of reliability measure will be derived-namely, prediction reliability and classification reliability. We use bootstrapping methods as the main tool to construct these measures. We also provide a suite of graphical displays by which they may be easily appreciated. In addition to providing some estimate of the reliability of specific forecasts of each type, these measures can also be used to guide future data collection to improve the effectiveness of the tree model. The motivating example we give has a binary response, namely the presence or absence of a species of Eucalypt, Eucalyptus cloeziana, at a given sampling location in response to a suite of environmental covariates, (although the methods are not restricted to binary response data).