The transform likelihood ratio method for rare event simulation with heavy tails

We present a novel method, called the transform likelihood ratio (TLR) method, for estimation of rare event probabilities with heavy-tailed distributions. Via a simple transformation ( change of variables) technique the TLR method reduces the original rare event probability estimation with heavy tail distributions to an equivalent one with light tail distributions. Once this transformation has been established we estimate the rare event probability via importance sampling, using the classical exponential change of measure or the standard likelihood ratio change of measure. In the latter case the importance sampling distribution is chosen from the same parametric family as the transformed distribution. We estimate the optimal parameter vector of the importance sampling distribution using the cross-entropy method. We prove the polynomial complexity of the TLR method for certain heavy-tailed models and demonstrate numerically its high efficiency for various heavy-tailed models previously thought to be intractable. We also show that the TLR method can be viewed as a universal tool in the sense that not only it provides a unified view for heavy-tailed simulation but also can be efficiently used in simulation with light-tailed distributions. We present extensive simulation results which support the efficiency of the TLR method.

Celebrity, Nation, and the New Australian Woman: Tania Verstak, Miss Australia 1961

This article examines two women who signified the 'ideal' feminine for Australians and represented the Australian nation on the global stage: Beryl Mills, the first Miss Australia, crowned in 1926, and Tania Verstak, Miss Australia 1961. Both women gained celebrity through their role as Miss Australia, but Tania Verstak is of particular significance as the first 'new Australian' woman to win the coveted title. The strategy of viewing the two women as embodying the Australian nation reveals some of the dramatic social shifts that occurred in the Australian consciousness over the thirty-five years that separated the two title-holders; furthermore, it demonstrates how those shifts reshaped Australia's national identity and its feminine imagery.

Shift, scaling and derivative properties for the discrete cosine transform

A set of DCT domain properties for shifting and scaling by real amounts, and taking linear operations such as differentiation is described. The DCT coefficients of a sampled signal are subjected to a linear transform, which returns the DCT coefficients of the shifted, scaled and/or differentiated signal. The properties are derived by considering the inverse discrete transform as a cosine series expansion of the original continuous signal, assuming sampling in accordance with the Nyquist criterion. This approach can be applied in the signal domain, to give, for example, DCT based interpolation or derivatives. The same approach can be taken in decoding from the DCT to give, for example, derivatives in the signal domain. The techniques may prove useful in compressed domain processing applications, and are interesting because they allow operations from the continuous domain such as differentiation to be implemented in the discrete domain. An image matching algorithm illustrates the use of the properties, with improvements in computation time and matching quality.