The cost of uniqueness in groundwater model calibration

Calibration of a groundwater model requires that hydraulic properties be estimated throughout a model domain. This generally constitutes an underdetermined inverse problem, for which a Solution can only be found when some kind of regularization device is included in the inversion process. Inclusion of regularization in the calibration process can be implicit, for example through the use of zones of constant parameter value, or explicit, for example through solution of a constrained minimization problem in which parameters are made to respect preferred values, or preferred relationships, to the degree necessary for a unique solution to be obtained. The cost of uniqueness is this: no matter which regularization methodology is employed, the inevitable consequence of its use is a loss of detail in the calibrated field. This, ill turn, can lead to erroneous predictions made by a model that is ostensibly well calibrated. Information made available as a by-product of the regularized inversion process allows the reasons for this loss of detail to be better understood. In particular, it is easily demonstrated that the estimated value for an hydraulic property at any point within a model domain is, in fact, a weighted average of the true hydraulic property over a much larger area. This averaging process causes loss of resolution in the estimated field. Where hydraulic conductivity is the hydraulic property being estimated, high averaging weights exist in areas that are strategically disposed with respect to measurement wells, while other areas may contribute very little to the estimated hydraulic conductivity at any point within the model domain, this possibly making the detection of hydraulic conductivity anomalies in these latter areas almost impossible. A study of the post-calibration parameter field covariance matrix allows further insights into the loss of system detail incurred through the calibration process to be gained. A comparison of pre- and post-calibration parameter covariance matrices shows that the latter often possess a much smaller spectral bandwidth than the former. It is also demonstrated that, as all inevitable consequence of the fact that a calibrated model cannot replicate every detail of the true system, model-to-measurement residuals can show a high degree of spatial correlation, a fact which must be taken into account when assessing these residuals either qualitatively, or quantitatively in the exploration of model predictive uncertainty. These principles are demonstrated using a synthetic case in which spatial parameter definition is based oil pilot points, and calibration is Implemented using both zones of piecewise constancy and constrained minimization regularization. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of a coupled ground-surface water flow model to simulate periodic groundwater flow influenced by a sloping boundary, capillarity and vertical flows

Theoretical developments as well as field and laboratory data have shown the influence of the capillary fringe on water table fluctuations to increase with the fluctuation frequency. The numerical solution of a full, partially saturated flow equation can be computationally expensive. In this paper, the influence of the capillary fringe on water table fluctuations is simplified through its parameterisation into the storage coefficient of a fully-saturated groundwater flow model using the complex effective porosity concept [Nielsen, P., Perrochet, P., 2000. Water table dynamics under capillary fringes: experiments and modelling. Advances in Water Resources 23 (1), 503-515; Nielsen, P., Perrochet, P., 2000. ERRATA: water table dynamics under capillary fringes: experiments and modelling (Advances in Water Resources 23 (2000) 503-515). Advances in Water Resources 23, 907-908]. The model is applied to sand flume observations of periodic water table fluctuations induced by simple harmonic forcing across a sloping boundary, analogous to many beach groundwater systems. While not providing information on the moisture distribution within the aquifer, this approach can reasonably predict the water table fluctuations in response to periodic forcing across a sloping boundary. Furthermore, he coupled ground-surface water model accurately predicts the extent of the seepage face formed at the sloping boundary. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response of the salt-freshwater interface in a coastal aquifer to a wave-induced groundwater pulse: field observations and modelling

Field observations on an unconfined coastal aquifer showed that a groundwater pulse, generated by it moderate (significant wave height, H-sig similar to 4.5 m) wave/storm event, induced significant oscillations in the salt-freshwater interface of the order of several metres in the horizontal direction. A dynamic sharp-interface model is developed to quantify the mechanism of these interface oscillations. The model uses the 50% seawater salinity contour as the location of the equivalent sharp-interface. The model was calibrated against the observed groundwater table fluctuations. It predicted reasonably well the interface oscillations with a slight over-prediction of the oscillation magnitude and a steepening of the interface. The neglect of mixing in the salt-freshwater mixing zone by the sharp-interface model is suggested as a possible contributor to the discrepancies between the model predictions and observations. In contrast with the significant wave effects, there was no observable response of the interface to diurnal or semidiurnal tides. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response of coastal groundwater table to offshore storms

Large groundwater table fluctuations were observed in a coastal aquifer during an offshore storm. The storm induced significant changes of the mean shoreline elevation, characterized by a pulse-like oscillation. This pulse propagated in the aquifer, resulting in the water table fluctuations. A general analytical solution is derived to quantify this new mechanism of water table fluctuation. The solution is applied to field observations and is found to be able to predict reasonably well the observed storm-induced water table fluctuations. Based on the analytical solution, the damping characteristics and phase shift of the oscillation as it propagates inland are examined.

Quantifying effects of soil heterogeneity on groundwater pollution in four sites in the USA

Four sites located in the north-eastern region of the United States of America have been chosen to investigate the impacts of soil heterogeneity in the transport of solutes (bromide and chloride) through the vadose zone (the zone in the soil that lies below the root zone and above the permanent saturated groundwater). A recently proposed mathematical model based on the cumulative beta distribution has been deployed to compare and contrast the regions' heterogeneity from multiple sample percolation experiments. Significant differences in patterns of solute leaching were observed even over a small spatial scale, indicating that traditional sampling methods for solute transport, for example the gravity pan or suction lysimeters, or more recent inventions such as the multiple sample percolation systems may not be effective in estimating solute fluxes in soils when a significant degree of soil heterogeneity is present. Consequently, ignoring soil heterogeneity in solute transport studies will likely result in under- or overprediction of leached fluxes and potentially lead to serious pollution of soils and/or groundwater. The cumulative beta distribution technique is found to be a versatile and simple technique of gaining valuable information regarding soil heterogeneity effects on solute transport. It is also an excellent tool for guiding future decisions of experimental designs particularly in regard to the number of samples within one site and the number of sampling locations between sites required to obtain a representative estimate of field solute or drainage flux.

New approximation for free surface flow of groundwater: capillarity correction

An existing capillarity correction for free surface groundwater flow as modelled by the Boussinesq equation is re-investigated. Existing solutions, based on the shallow flow expansion, have considered only the zeroth-order approximation. Here, a second-order capillarity correction to tide-induced watertable fluctuations in a coastal aquifer adjacent to a sloping beach is derived. A new definition of the capillarity correction is proposed for small capillary fringes, and a simplified solution is derived. Comparisons of the two models show that the simplified model can be used in most cases. The significant effects of higher-order capillarity corrections on tidal fluctuations in a sloping beach are also demonstrated. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement and modelling of controlled beach groundwater levels under wave action

New laboratory scale experimental data are presented on the forcing of beach groundwater levels by wave run-up. The experimental setup simulates a coastal barrier dividing the ocean from a relatively constant back beach water level, conditions approximating a closed off lagoon system or beach aquifer. The data are critically compared to an advanced numerical model for simulating wave and beach groundwater interaction in the coastal zone, and provide the first experimental verification of such a model. Overall model-data comparisons are good, but some systematic discrepancies are apparent, and reasons for these are discussed.