Rethinking the "diseases of affluence" paradigm: Global patterns of nutritional risks in relation to economic development

Background Cardiovascular diseases and their nutritional risk factors-including overweight and obesity, elevated blood pressure, and cholesterol-are among the leading causes of global mortality and morbidity, and have been predicted to rise with economic development. Methods and Findings We examined age-standardized mean population levels of body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol in relation to national income, food share of household expenditure, and urbanization in a cross-country analysis. Data were from a total of over 100 countries and were obtained from systematic reviews of published literature, and from national and international health agencies. BMI and cholesterol increased rapidly in relation to national income, then flattened, and eventually declined. BMI increased most rapidly until an income of about I$5,000 (international dollars) and peaked at about I$12,500 for females and I$17,000 for males. Cholesterol's point of inflection and peak were at higher income levels than those of BMI (about I$8,000 and I$18,000, respectively). There was an inverse relationship between BMI/cholesterol and the food share of household expenditure, and a positive relationship with proportion of population in urban areas. Mean population blood pressure was not correlated or only weakly correlated with the economic factors considered, or with cholesterol and BMI. Conclusions When considered together with evidence on shifts in income-risk relationships within developed countries, the results indicate that cardiovascular disease risks are expected to systematically shift to low-income and middle-income countries and, together with the persistent burden of infectious diseases, further increase global health inequalities. Preventing obesity should be a priority from early stages of economic development, accompanied by population-level and personal interventions for blood pressure and cholesterol.

Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

Prospective case review of a global e-health system for doctors in developing countries

The Swinfen Charitable Trust has managed email consultations for doctors in developing countries since 1999. The process was handled manually for the first three years and then subsequently using an automatic message-handling system. We conducted a prospective review of email consultations between referring doctors and consulting specialists during six months of automatic operation (December 2003 to May 2004). During the study period 125 consultations took place. These concerned a wide range of specialties (e.g. orthopaedics 17%, dermatology 16%, obstetrics and gynaecology 11%, radiology 10%). Of these referrals, 33% (41) were for paediatric cases. Consulting specialists, who were based in five countries, were volunteers. Referring doctors were from 24 hospitals in 12 developing countries. The median time from referral to definitive reply was 1.5 days (interquartile range 0.6-4.9). There was an 85% response rate (n = 106) to a survey concerning the value of the consultation to the referring doctor. All the referring doctors who responded made positive comments about the service and half said that it improved their management of the case. The second-opinion consultation system operated by the Swinfen Charitable Trust represents an example of a global e-health system operated for altruistic, rather than commercial, reasons.

Distribution of major health risks: findings from the global burden of disease study

Background Most analyses of risks to health focus on the total burden of their aggregate effects. The distribution of risk-factor-attributable disease burden, for example by age or exposure level, can inform the selection and targeting of specific interventions and programs, and increase cost-effectiveness. Methods and Findings For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups conducted comprehensive reviews of data on risk-factor exposure and hazard for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world, by age and sex. Age-sex-subregion-population attributable fractions were estimated and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database. Where possible, exposure levels were assessed as continuous measures, or as multiple categories. The proportion of risk-factor-attributable burden in different population subgroups, defined by age, sex, and exposure level, was estimated. For major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco use, fruit and vegetable intake, body mass index, and physical inactivity) 43%-61% of attributable disease burden occurred between the ages of 15 and 59 y, and 87% of alcohol-attributable burden occurred in this age group. Most of the disease burden for continuous risks occurred in those with only moderately raised levels, not among those with levels above commonly used cut-points, such as those with hypertension or obesity. Of all disease burden attributable to being underweight during childhood, 55% occurred among children 1-3 standard deviations below the reference population median, and the remainder occurred among severely malnourished children, who were three or more standard deviations below median. Conclusions Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority. Population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce substantial reductions in disease burden.

The evolution of the Global Burden of Disease framework for disease, injury and risk factor quantification: Developing the evidence base for national, regional and global public health action

Reliable, comparable information about the main causes of disease and injury in populations, and how these are changing, is a critical input for debates about priorities in the health sector. Traditional sources of information about the descriptive epidemiology of diseases, injuries and risk factors are generally incomplete, fragmented and of uncertain reliability and comparability. Lack of a standardized measurement framework to permit comparisons across diseases and injuries, as well as risk factors, and failure to systematically evaluate data quality have impeded comparative analyses of the true public health importance of various conditions and risk factors. As a consequence the impact of major conditions and hazards on population health has been poorly appreciated, often leading to a lack of public health investment. Global disease and risk factor quantification improved dramatically in the early 1990s with the completion of the first Global Burden of Disease Study. For the first time, the comparative importance of over 100 diseases and injuries, and ten major risk factors, for global and regional health status could be assessed using a common metric (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) which simultaneously accounted for both premature mortality and the prevalence, duration and severity of the non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. As a consequence, mental health conditions and injuries, for which non-fatal outcomes are of particular significance, were identified as being among the leading causes of disease/injury burden worldwide, with clear implications for policy, particularly prevention. A major achievement of the Study was the complete global descriptive epidemiology, including incidence, prevalence and mortality, by age, sex and Region, of over 100 diseases and injuries. National applications, further methodological research and an increase in data availability have led to improved national, regional and global estimates for 2000, but substantial uncertainty around the disease burden caused by major conditions, including, HIV, remains. The rapid implementation of cost-effective data collection systems in developing countries is a key priority if global public policy to promote health is to be more effectively informed.

Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data

Background Our aim was to calculate the global burden of disease and risk factors for 2001, to examine regional trends from 1990 to 2001, and to provide a starting point for the analysis of the Disease Control Priorities Project (DCPP). Methods We calculated mortality, incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for 136 diseases and injuries, for seven income/geographic country groups. To assess trends, we re-estimated all-cause mortality for 1990 with the same methods as for 2001. We estimated mortality and disease burden attributable to 19 risk factors. Findings About 56 million people died in 2001. Of these, 10.6 million were children, 99% of whom lived in low-and-middle-income countries. More than half of child deaths in 2001 were attributable to acute respiratory infections, measles, diarrhoea, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. The ten leading diseases for global disease burden were perinatal conditions, lower respiratory infections, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, HIV/AIDS, diarrhoeal diseases, unipolar major depression, malaria, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tuberculosis. There was a 20% reduction in global disease burden per head due to communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions between 1990 and 2001. Almost half the disease burden in low-and-middle-income countries is now from non-communicable diseases (disease burden per head in Sub-Saharan Africa and the low-and-middle-income countries of Europe and Central Asia increased between 1990 and 2001). Undernutrition remains the leading risk factor for health loss. An estimated 45% of global mortality and 36% of global disease burden are attributable to the joint hazardous effects of the 19 risk factors studied. Uncertainty in all-cause mortality estimates ranged from around 1% in high-income countries to 15-20% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Uncertainty was larger for mortality from specific diseases, and for incidence and prevalence of non-fatal outcomes. Interpretation Despite uncertainties about mortality and burden of disease estimates, our findings suggest that substantial gains in health have been achieved in most populations, countered by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and setbacks in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union. our results on major disease, injury, and risk factor causes of loss of health, together with information on the cost-effectiveness of interventions, can assist in accelerating progress towards better health and reducing the persistent differentials in health between poor and rich countries.

Limitations to global disease control

In October 2000, Australia was declared poliomyelitis-free” by the World Health Organisation. This declaration followed some extensive six years of surveillance of all cases of acute flaccid paralysis, by the Poliomyelitis Expert Surveillance Committee (Centre for Disease Control, Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care, Canberra), chaired by the author. There have been seven attempts in the history of the world to eliminate a disease from the earth’s surface. The dramatic failure of five of these, the success of global smallpox eradication, and current successes and difficulties in the case of attempts to eliminate poliomyelitis worldwide, lead one to an analysis of the factors which led both to success and to failure. The global eradication of a specific disease is one of the most important endeavours which the international community can undertake. This audit reviews the details of such approaches; that such might be used as tools for the future.

IRS-1 regulation in health and disease

The global incidence of diabetes is increasing at epidemic rates. Estimates suggest there are currently 150 million people with diabetes and this number is expected to double in the next 20 years. Type 2 diabetes accounts for 95% of all cases and is characterized in part by impaired sensitivity to insulin or 'insulin resistance'. Defects in the insulin signalling pathways underpin this resistance. In the current article we discuss the regulation of Insulin Receptor Substrate-1 (IRS-1), a protein that plays a pivotal role in insulin signalling and whose function is impaired in subjects with insulin resistance. Coordination of IRS-1 function is multi-faceted, involving phosphorylation of IRS-1 at multiple serine/threonine residues. This controls many aspects of IRS-1, including its interaction with the insulin receptor and subsequent tyrosine phosphorylation, as well as its subcellular distribution and targeting for degradation by the proteasome. Such tight control ensures appropriate transduction and attenuation of the insulin signal, thereby regulating insulin action in healthy individuals. Emerging evidence indicates that `diabetogenic factors' associated with insulin resistance, such as TNFalpha and elevated circulating fatty acids, impact on insulin signalling at the level of IRS-1 serine/threonine phosphorylation. The expression and/or activity of several kinases, such as IkappaB kinase beta (IKKbeta) and salt-induced kinase 2 (SIK2), and the phosphorylation of IRS-1 at key sites, such as Ser307 and Ser789, are increased in states of insulin resistance. Identifying the pathways by which such factors activate these and other kinases, and de. ning the precise roles of specific serine/threonine phosphorylation events in IRS-1 regulation, represent important goals which may eventually provide a rationale for therapeutic intervention.

The mental health country profile: Background, design and use of a systematic method of appraisal

This article describes the construction and use of a systematic structured method of mental health country situation appraisal, in order to help meet the need for conceptual tools to assist planners and policy makers develop and audit policy and implementation strategies. The tool encompasses the key domains of context, needs, resources, provisions and outcomes, and provides a framework for synthesizing key qualitative and quantitative information, flagging up gaps in knowledge, and for reviewing existing policies. It serves as an enabling tool to alert and inform policy makers, professionals and other key stakeholders about important issues which need to be considered in mental health policy development. It provides detailed country specific information in a systematic format, to facilitate global sharing of experiences of mental health reform and strategies between policy makers and other stakeholders. Lastly, it is designed to be a capacity building tool for local stakeholders to enhance situation appraisal, and multisectorial policy development and implementation.

The International Consortium on Mental Health Policy and Services: objectives, design and project implementation

The concept of the burden of disease, introduced and estimated for a broad range of diseases in the World Bank report of 1993 illustrated that mental and neurological disorders not only entail a higher burden than cancer, but are responsible, in developed and developing countries, for more than 15% of the total burden of all diseases. As a consequence, over the past decade, mental disorders have ranked increasingly highly on the international agenda for health. However, the fact that mental health and nervous system disorders are now high on the international health agenda is by no means a guarantee that the fate of patients suffering from these disorders in developing countries will improve. In most developing countries the treatment gap for mental and neurological disorders is still unacceptably high. To address this problem, an international network of collaborating institutions in low-income countries has been set up. The establishment and the achievements of this network-the International Consortium on Mental Health Policy and Services-are reported. Sixteen institutions in developing countries collaborate (supported by a small number of scientific resource centres in industrialized nations) in projects on applied mental health systems research. Over a two-year period, the network produced the key elements of a national mental health policy; provided tools and methods for assessing a country's current mental health status (context, needs and demands, programmes, services and care and outcomes); established a global network of expertise, i.e., institutions and experts, for use by countries wishing to reform their mental health policy, services and care; and generated guidelines and examples for upgrading mental health policy with due regard to the existing mental health delivery system and demographic, cultural and economic factors.

The Mental Health Policy Template: Domains and elements for mental health policy formulation

Mental disorders are a major and rising cause of disease burden in all countries. Even when resources are available, many countries do not have the policy and planning frameworks in place to identify and deliver effective interventions. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank have emphasized the need for ready access to the basic tools for mental health policy formulation, implementation and sustained development. The Analytical Studies on Mental Health Policy and Service Project, undertaken in 1999-2001 by the International Consortium for Mental Health Services and funded by the Global Forum for Health Research aims to address this need through the development of a template for mental health policy formulation. A mental health policy template has been developed based on an inventory of the key elements of a successful mental health policy. These elements have been validated against a review of international literature, a study of existing mental health policies and the results of extensive consultations with experts in the six WHO regions of the world. The Mental Health Policy Template has been revised and its applicability will be tested in a number of developing countries during 2001-2002. The Mental Health Policy Template and the work of the Consortium for Mental Health Services will be presented and the future role of the template in mental health policy development and reform in developing countries will be discussed.

Role of smoking in global and regional cancer epidemiology: current patterns and data needs

Although smoking is widely recognized as a major cause of cancer, there is little information on how it contributes to the global and regional burden of cancers in combination with other risk factors that affect background cancer mortality patterns. We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS-II) and the WHO and IARC cancer mortality databases to estimate deaths from 8 clusters of site-specific cancers caused by smoking, for 14 epidemiologic subregions of the world, by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.42 (95% CI 1.27-1.57) million cancer deaths in the world, 21% of total global cancer deaths, were caused by smoking. Of these, 1.18 million deaths were among men and 0.24 million among women; 625,000 (95% CI 485,000-749,000) smoking-caused cancer deaths occurred in the developing world and 794,000 (95% CI 749,000-840,000) in industrialized regions. Lung cancer accounted for 60% of smoking-attributable cancer mortality, followed by cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (20%). Based on available data, more than one in every 5 cancer deaths in the world in the year 2000 were caused by smoking, making it possibly the single largest preventable cause of cancer mortality. There was significant variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of the different site-specific cancers. This variability illustrates the importance of coupling research and surveillance of smoking with that for other risk factors for more effective cancer prevention. (C) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.