Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

Social-servicescape conceptual model

There is considerable evidence that environmental variables can substantially influence consumer behavior in service settings (cf. Turley and Milliman, 2000). However, research to date has focused on the effects of the physical elements (‘atmospherics’), with the social aspects (customers and service providers) of the environment largely ignored. First, we provide a review of the extant literature drawing on four major streams of research from (1) previous marketing (servicescapes); (2) environmental psychology (approach–avoidance theory, behavior setting theory); (3) social psychology (social facilitation theory); and (4) organizational behavior (affective events theory). Second, we present a new conceptual model, the ‘Social-servicescape’. In this paper we argue that the social environment and purchase occasion dictates the desired social density which influences customers’ affective and cognitive responses, including repurchase intentions. Furthermore, we argue that customers play a key role in influencing the emotions of others either positively or negatively, and this largely determines whether they intend to return to the service setting. Implications of this conceptual model for theory and practice are discussed.