Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.

Information systems maturity in e-business organizations

E-Business Information Systems (eBIS) are Information Systems (IS) that support organizations to realize their e-Business strategy resulting in various benefits. Therefore those systems strongly focus on fulfilment of the e-business requirements. In order to realise the expected benefits, organizations need to turn to their eBIS and measure the maturity of those systems. In doing so, they need to identify the status of those systems with regards to their suitability to support the e-Business strategy, while also identifying required IS improvements. In our research we aim to develop a maturity model, particularly dedicated to the area of e-Business Information Systems, which can be used easily and objectively to measure of the current maturity of any Information System that supports e-Business. This research-in-progress paper presents initial results of our research.