5 resultados para estimation risk

em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia


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Background: Sentinel node biopsy (SNB) is being increasingly used but its place outside randomized trials has not yet been established. Methods: The first 114 sentinel node (SN) biopsies performed for breast cancer at the Princess Alexandra Hospital from March 1999 to June 2001 are presented. In 111 cases axillary dissection was also performed, allowing the accuracy of the technique to be assessed. A standard combination of preoperative lymphoscintigraphy, intraoperative gamma probe and injection of blue dye was used in most cases. Results are discussed in relation to the risk and potential consequences of understaging. Results: Where both probe and dye were used, the SN was identified in 90% of patients. A significant number of patients were treated in two stages and the technique was no less effective in patients who had SNB performed at a second operation after the primary tumour had already been removed. The interval from radioisotope injection to operation was very wide (between 2 and 22 h) and did not affect the outcome. Nodal metastases were present in 42 patients in whom an SN was found, and in 40 of these the SN was positive, giving a false negative rate of 4.8% (2/42), with the overall percentage of patients understaged being 2%. For this particular group as a whole, the increased risk of death due to systemic therapy being withheld as a consequence of understaging (if SNB alone had been employed) is estimated at less than 1/500. The risk for individuals will vary depending on other features of the particular primary tumour. Conclusion: For patients who elect to have the axilla staged using SNB alone, the risk and consequences of understaging need to be discussed. These risks can be estimated by allowing for the specific surgeon's false negative rate for the technique, and considering the likelihood of nodal metastases for a given tumour. There appears to be no disadvantage with performing SNB at a second operation after the primary tumour has already been removed. Clearly, for a large number of patients, SNB alone will be safe, but ideally participation in randomized trials should continue to be encouraged.

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Background Nurses play a key role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and one would, therefore, expect them to have a heightened awareness of the need for systematic screening and their own CVD risk profile. The aim of this study was to examine personal awareness of CVD risk among a cohort of cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference. Methods Of the 340 delegates attending the 5th annual Spring Meeting on Cardiovascular Nursing (Basel, Switzerland, 2005), 287 (83%) completed a self-report questionnaire to assess their own risk factors for CVD. Delegates were also asked to give an estimation of their absolute total risk of experiencing a fatal CVD event in the next 10 years. Level of agreement between self-reported CVD risk estimation and their actual risk according to the SCORE risk assessment system was compared by calculating weighted Kappa (κw). Results Overall, 109 responders (38%) self-reported having either pre-existing CVD (only 2%), one or more markedly raised CVD risk factors, a high total risk of fatal CVD (≥ 5% in 10 years) or a strong family history of CVD. About half of this cohort (53%) did not know their own total cholesterol level. Less than half (45%) reported having a 10-year risk of fatal CVD of < 1%, while 13% reported having a risk ≥ 5%. Based on the SCORE risk function, the estimated 10-year risk of a fatal CVD event was < 1% for 96% of responders: only 2% had a ≥ 5% risk of such an event. Overall, less than half (46%) of this cohort's self-reported CVD risk corresponded with that calculated using the SCORE risk function (κw = 0.27). Conclusion Most cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference in 2005 poorly understood their own CVD risk profile, and the agreement between their self-reported 10-year risk of a fatal CVD and their CVD risk using SCORE was only fair. Given the specialist nature of this conference, our findings clearly demonstrate a need to improve overall nursing awareness of the role and importance of systematic CVD risk assessment.

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Background There are substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality in many countries. Smoking is often more prevalent among men of lower social class, education, or income. The contribution of smoking to these social inequalities in mortality remains uncertain. Methods The contribution of smoking to adult mortality in a population can be estimated indirectly from disease-specific death rates in that population (using absolute lung cancer rates to indicate proportions due to smoking of mortality from certain other diseases). We applied these methods to 1996 death rates at ages 35-69 years in men in three different social strata in four countries, based on a total of 0.6 million deaths. The highest and lowest social strata were based on social class (professional vs unskilled manual) in England and Wales, neighbourhood income (top vs bottom quintile) in urban Canada, and completed years of education (more than vs less than 12 years) in the USA and Poland. Results In each country, there was about a two-fold difference between the highest and the lowest social strata in overall risks of dying among men aged 35-69 years (England and Wales 21% vs 43%, USA 20% vs 37%, Canada 21% vs 34%, Poland 26% vs 50%: four-country mean 22% vs 41%, four-country mean absolute difference 19%). More than half of this difference in mortality between the top and bottom social strata involved differences in risks of being killed at age 35-69 years by smoking (England and Wales 4% vs 19%, USA 4% vs 15%, Canada 6% vs 13%, Poland 5% vs 22%: four-country mean 5% vs 17%, four-country mean absolute difference 12%). Smoking-attributed mortality accounted for nearly half of total male mortality in the lowest social stratum of each country. Conclusion In these populations, most, but not all, of the substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality during the 1990s were due to the effects of smoking. Widespread cessation of smoking could eventually halve the absolute differences between these social strata in the risk of premature death.