A Bayesian approach to imposing curvature on distance functions

The estimated parameters of output distance functions frequently violate the monotonicity, quasi-convexity and convexity constraints implied by economic theory, leading to estimated elasticities and shadow prices that are incorrectly signed, and ultimately to perverse conclusions concerning the effects of input and output changes on productivity growth and relative efficiency levels. We show how a Bayesian approach can be used to impose these constraints on the parameters of a translog output distance function. Implementing the approach involves the use of a Gibbs sampler with data augmentation. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is also used within the Gibbs to simulate observations from truncated pdfs. Our methods are developed for the case where panel data is available and technical inefficiency effects are assumed to be time-invariant. Two models-a fixed effects model and a random effects model-are developed and applied to panel data on 17 European railways. We observe significant changes in estimated elasticities and shadow price ratios when regularity restrictions are imposed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of changing data collection parameters on statistical motor unit number estimates

The effect of number of samples and selection of data for analysis on the calculation of surface motor unit potential (SMUP) size in the statistical method of motor unit number estimates (MUNE) was determined in 10 normal subjects and 10 with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We recorded 500 sequential compound muscle action potentials (CMAPs) at three different stable stimulus intensities (10–50% of maximal CMAP). Estimated mean SMUP sizes were calculated using Poisson statistical assumptions from the variance of 500 sequential CMAP obtained at each stimulus intensity. The results with the 500 data points were compared with smaller subsets from the same data set. The results using a range of 50–80% of the 500 data points were compared with the full 500. The effect of restricting analysis to data between 5–20% of the CMAP and to standard deviation limits was also assessed. No differences in mean SMUP size were found with stimulus intensity or use of different ranges of data. Consistency was improved with a greater sample number. Data within 5% of CMAP size gave both increased consistency and reduced mean SMUP size in many subjects, but excluded valid responses present at that stimulus intensity. These changes were more prominent in ALS patients in whom the presence of isolated SMUP responses was a striking difference from normal subjects. Noise, spurious data, and large SMUP limited the Poisson assumptions. When these factors are considered, consistent statistical MUNE can be calculated from a continuous sequence of data points. A 2 to 2.5 SD or 10% window are reasonable methods of limiting data for analysis. Muscle Nerve 27: 320–331, 2003

Estimation of pharmacokinetic parameters from non-compartmental variables using Microsoft Excel((R))

This study was conducted to develop a method, termed 'back analysis (BA)', for converting non-compartmental variables to compartment model dependent pharmacokinetic parameters for both one- and two-compartment models. A Microsoft Excel((R)) spreadsheet was implemented with the use of Solver((R)) and visual basic functions. The performance of the BA method in estimating pharmacokinetic parameter values was evaluated by comparing the parameter values obtained to a standard modelling software program, NONMEM, using simulated data. The results show that the BA method was reasonably precise and provided low bias in estimating fixed and random effect parameters for both one- and two-compartment models. The pharmacokinetic parameters estimated from the BA method were similar to those of NONMEM estimation.

Genetic parameters and predicted response to selection for lean growth in an Australian commercial nucleus pig herd

Genetic parameters for performance traits in a pig population were estimated using a multi-trait derivative-free REML algorithm. The 2590 total data included 922 restrictively fed male and 1668 ad libitum fed female records. Estimates of heritability (standard error in parentheses) were 0.25 (0.03), 0.15 (0.03), and 0.30 (0.05) for lifetime daily gain, test daily gain, and P2-fat depth in males, respectively; and 0.27 (0.04) and 0.38 (0.05) for average daily gain and P2-fat depth in females, respectively. The genetic correlation between P2-fat depth and test daily gain in males was -0.17 (0.06) and between P2-fat and lifetime average daily gain in females 0.44 (0.09). Genetic correlations between sexes were 0.71 (0.11) for average daily gain and -0.30 (0.10) for P2-fat depth. Genetic response per standard deviation of selection on an index combining all traits was predicted at $AU120 per sow per year. Responses in daily gain and backfat were expected to be higher when using only male selection than when using only female selection. Selection for growth rate in males will improve growth rate and carcass leanness simultaneously.

Changes in estimated coronary risk in the 1980s: data from 38 populations in the WHO MONICA Project

The World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project is a 10-year study monitoring trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease in geographically defined populations. Data were collected from over 100 000 randomly selected participants in two risk factor surveys conducted approximately 5 years apart in 38 populations using standardized protocols. The net effects of changes in the risk factor levels were estimated using risk scores derived from longitudinal studies in the Nordic countries. The prevalence of cigarette smoking decreased among men in most populations, but the trends for women varied. The prevalence of hypertension declined in two-thirds of the populations. Changes in the prevalence of raised total cholesterol were small but highly correlated between the genders (r = 0.8). The prevalence of obesity increased in three-quarters of the populations for men and in more than half of the populations for women. In almost half of the populations there were statistically significant declines in the estimated coronary risk for both men and women, although for Beijing the risk score increased significantly for both genders. The net effect of the changes in the risk factor levels in the 1980s in most of the study populations of the WHO MONICA Project is that the rates of coronary disease are predicted to decline in the 1990s.

Data analysis in multiple-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis

The performance of three analytical methods for multiple-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (MFBIA) data was assessed. The methods were the established method of Cole and Cole, the newly proposed method of Siconolfi and co-workers and a modification of this procedure. Method performance was assessed from the adequacy of the curve fitting techniques, as judged by the correlation coefficient and standard error of the estimate, and the accuracy of the different methods in determining the theoretical values of impedance parameters describing a set of model electrical circuits. The experimental data were well fitted by all curve-fitting procedures (r = 0.9 with SEE 0.3 to 3.5% or better for most circuit-procedure combinations). Cole-Cole modelling provided the most accurate estimates of circuit impedance values, generally within 1-2% of the theoretical values, followed by the Siconolfi procedure using a sixth-order polynomial regression (1-6% variation). None of the methods, however, accurately estimated circuit parameters when the measured impedances were low (<20 Omega) reflecting the electronic limits of the impedance meter used. These data suggest that Cole-Cole modelling remains the preferred method for the analysis of MFBIA data.

The relationship between plasma lactate parameters, W-peak and 1-h cycling performance in women

Purpose: The relationship between six descriptors of lactate increase, peak (V) over dot O-2,W-peak, and 1-h cycling performance were compared in 24 trained, female cyclists (peak (V) over dot O-2 = 48.11 +/- 6.32 mL . kg(-1) . min(-1)). Methods: The six descriptors of lactate increase were: 1) lactate threshold (LT; the power output at which plasma lactate concentration begins to increase above the resting level during an incremental exercise test), 2) LT1 (the power output at which plasma lactate increases by 1 mM or more), 3) LTD (the lactate threshold calculated by the D-max method), 4) LTMOD (the lactate threshold calculated by a modified D-max method), 5) L4 (the power output at which plasma lactate reaches a concentration of 4 mmol-L-1), and 6) LTLOG (the power output at which plasma lactate concentration begins to increase when the log([La-]) is plotted against the log (power output)). Subjects first completed a peak (V) over dot O-2 test on a cycle ergometer. Finger-tip capillary blood was sampled within 30 s of the end of each 3-min stage for analysis of plasma lactate. Endurance performance was assessed 7 d later using a 1-h cycle test (OHT) in which subjects were directed to achieve the highest possible average power output. Results: The mean power output (W) for the OHT (+/- SD) was 183.01 +/- 18.88, and for each lactate variable was: LT (138.54 +/- 46.61), LT1 (179.17 +/- 27.25), LTLOG (143.97 +/- 45.74), L4 (198.09 +/- 33.84), LTD (178.79 +/- 24.07), LTMOD (212.28 +/- 31.75). Average power output during the OHT was more strongly correlated with all plasma lactate parameters (0.61 < r < 0.84) and W-peak (r = 0.81) than with peak (V) over dot O-2 (r = 0.55). The six lactate parameters were strongly correlated with each other (0.54 < r < 0.91) and of the six lactate parameters, LTD correlated best with endurance performance (r = 0.84). Conclusions: It was concluded that plasma lactate parameters and W-peak provide better indices of endurance performance than peak (V) over dot O-2 and that, of the six descriptors of lactate increase measured in this study, LTD is most strongly related to 1-h cycling performance in trained, female cyclists.

In vitro human epidermal and polyethylene membrane penetration and retention of the sunscreen benzophenone-3 from a range of solvents

Purpose. To study epidermal and polyethylene membrane penetration and retention of the sunscreen benzophenone-3 (BP) from a range of single solvent vehicles and evaluate solvent effects on permeability parameters. Methods. The solubility of BP was measured in a number of solvents. Penetration of BP across human epidermis and high density polyethylene (HDPE) membranes was studied from 50% saturated solutions in each solvent. Results. Maximal BP fluxes from the solvents across the two membranes varied widely. Highest fluxes were observed from 90% ethanol (EtOH) for epidermis and from isopropyl myristate (IPM) and C12-15 benzoate alcohols (C12-15 BA) for HDPE membrane. Both the flux and estimated permeability coefficient and skin-vehicle partitioning of BP appeared to be related to the vehicle solubility parameter (delta(v)). The major effects of solvents on BP flux appear to be via changes in BP diffusivity through the membranes. Conclusions. Minimal penetration of sunscreens such as BP is best achieved by choosing vehicles with a delta(v) substantially different to the solubility parameter of the membrane.

Remotely sensed estimates of vegetation structural characteristics in restored wetlands, Southern California

Traditional field sampling approaches for ecological studies of restored habitat can only cover small areas in detail, con be time consuming, and are often invasive and destructive. Spatially extensive and non-invasive remotely sensed data can make field sampling more focused and efficient. The objective of this work was to investigate the feasibility and accuracy of hand-held and airborne remotely sensed data to estimate vegetation structural parameters for an indicator plant species in a restored wetland. High spatial resolution, digital, multispectral camera images were captured from an aircraft over Sweetwater Marsh (San Diego County, California) during each growing season between 1992-1996. Field data were collected concurrently, which included plant heights, proportional ground cover and canopy architecture type, and spectral radiometer measurements. Spartina foliosa (Pacific cordgrass) is the indicator species for the restoration monitoring. A conceptual model summarizing the controls on the spectral reflectance properties of Pacific cordgrass was established. Empirical models were developed relating the stem length, density, and canopy architecture of cordgrass to normalized-difference-vegetation-index values. The most promising results were obtained from empirical estimates of total ground cover using image data that had been stratified into high, middle, and low marsh zones. As part of on-going restoration monitoring activities, this model is being used to provide maps of estimated vegetation cover.

Decoherence and fidelity in ion traps with fluctuating trap parameters

We consider two different kinds of fluctuations in an ion trap potential: external fluctuating electrical fields, which cause statistical movement (wobbling) of the ion relative to the center of the trap, and fluctuations of the spring constant, which an due to fluctuations of the ac component of the potential applied in the Paul trap for ions. We write down master equations for both cases and, averaging out the noise, obtain expressions for the heating of the ion. We compare our results to previous results for far-off resonance optical traps and heating in ion traps. The effect of fluctuating external electrical fields for a quantum gate operation (controlled-NOT) is determined and the fidelity for that operation derived. [S1050-2947(99)06005-9].

CXTANNEAL: an improved program for estimating solute transport parameters

CXTANNEAL is a program for analysing contaminant transport in soils. The code, written in Fortran 77, is a modified version of CXTFIT, a commonly used package for estimating solute transport parameters in soils. The improvement of the present code is that it includes simulated annealing as the optimization technique for curve fitting. Tests with hypothetical data show that CXTANNEAL performs better than the original code in searching for optimal parameter estimates. To reduce the computational time, a parallel version of CXTANNEAL (CXTANNEAL_P) was also developed. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dual processes in recognition: Does a focus on measurement operations provide a sufficient foundation?

Current theoretical thinking about dual processes in recognition relies heavily on the measurement operations embodied within the process dissociation procedure. We critically evaluate the ability of this procedure to support this theoretical enterprise. We show that there are alternative processes that would produce a rough invariance in familiarity (a key prediction of the dual-processing approach) and that the process dissociation procedure does not have the power to differentiate between these alternative possibilities. We also show that attempts to relate parameters estimated by the process dissociation procedure to subjective reports (remember-know judgments) cannot differentiate between alternative dual-processing models and that there are problems with some of the historical evidence and with obtaining converging evidence. Our conclusion is that more specific theories incorporating ideas about representation and process are required.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Physiologic parameters that affect pulse transit time difference between the upper and lower limbs in children

Pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a known parameter that is related to arterial distensibility. However, its potential is hampered by the absence of appropriate techniques to estimate it noninvasively. PWV can be used as an assessment of increased arterial stiffness that is linked to systolic hypertension, excess cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.(1,2)