Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An epidemic of violence?: Changing patterns in reported rapes in Victoria

Victoria Police statistics show that, since the late 1980s, there has been a significant increase in reported rapes in that State. One interpretation of this trend is that there has been an increase in the underlying incidence of sexual violence in the community. An alternative explanation is that rape victims have become more willing to report to the police, in response to factors such as improved provision of support services to sexual assault victims, reforms to substantive and procedural law, and changes in police attitudes and procedures. In order to rest these competing interpretations data were collected and analysed on the characteristics of rapes reported to the Victoria Police in the late 1980s/early 1990s. This analysis showed that: (I) most of the additional offences reported in the early 1990s were allegations of rapes committed by family members, spouses and other intimates; and (2) an increasing number of reports related to offences which had been committed at feast one year prior to a report being made to the police. It is argued that these changing patterns are consistent with a significant increase in the reporting rate for rape. More generally, the research reported in this paper highlights the limitations of reported crime statistics as measures of the level of social violence, and points to the need for crime researchers to develop alternative methodologies for measuring and interpreting trends.

Alternatives for parallel Krylov subspace basis computation

Numerical methods related to Krylov subspaces are widely used in large sparse numerical linear algebra. Vectors in these subspaces are manipulated via their representation onto orthonormal bases. Nowadays, on serial computers, the method of Arnoldi is considered as a reliable technique for constructing such bases. However, although easily parallelizable, this technique is not as scalable as expected for communications. In this work we examine alternative methods aimed at overcoming this drawback. Since they retrieve upon completion the same information as Arnoldi's algorithm does, they enable us to design a wide family of stable and scalable Krylov approximation methods for various parallel environments. We present timing results obtained from their implementation on two distributed-memory multiprocessor supercomputers: the Intel Paragon and the IBM Scalable POWERparallel SP2. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Optical encoding of microbeads for gene screening: alternatives to microarrays

Rapid access to genetic information is central to the revolution presently occurring in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly In relation to novel drug target identification and drug development. Genetic variation, gene expression, gene function and gene structure are just some of the important research areas requiring efficient methods of DNA screening. Here, we highlight state-of-the-art techniques and devices for gene screening that promise cheaper and higher-throughput yields than currently achieved with DNA microarrays. We include an overview of existing and proposed bead-based strategies designed to dramatically increase the number of probes that can be interrogated in one assay. We focus, in particular, on the issue of encoding and/or decoding (bar-coding) large bead-based libraries for HTS.

Multiple impacts of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the aged in rural Uganda

This paper reports research conducted among theaged residents of a rural, Southwestern Ugandanvillage. It documents their knowledge ofHIV/AIDS, their perceptions of their own riskof infection, and the multiple impacts of thecurrent HIV/AIDS epidemic on their lives. Mostolder individuals have a sound understanding ofthe sexual transmission of HIV, and someconsider themselves to be at risk of infectionthrough having multiple sexual partners. Theyattempt to limit their children's exposure toHIV, but many of these children have left thevillage to live in urban areas of relativelyhigh HIV prevalence. The loss of adult childrendeprives the aged of any support these childrenmight have provided as their parents'capabilities declined with advancing age.Female-headed households were more affected inthis way than were male-headed households. TheAIDS epidemic has increased the number ofburials taking place in the village, and theiraccumulated costs, both in time and money, andcreated new hardships for the aged, who alsohave to cope with grief that accompaniescontinuing deaths among their children andtheir contemporaries' children.

Chloroquine or sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for the treatment of uncomplicated, Plasmodium falciparum malaria during an epidemic in Central Java, Indonesia

A recent malaria epidemic in the Menoreh Hills of Central Java has increased concern about the re-emergence of endemic malaria on Java, which threatens the island's 120 million residents. A 28-day, in-vivo test of the efficacy of treatment of malaria with antimalarial drugs was conducted among 16 7 villagers in the Menoreh Hills. The treatments investigated, chloroquine (CQ) and sulfadoxine pyrimethamine (SP), constitute, respectively, the first- and second-line treatments for uncomplicated malaria in Indonesia. The prevalence of malaria among 1389 residents screened prior to enrollment was 33%. Treatment outcomes were assessed by microscopical diagnoses, PCR-based confirmation of the diagnoses, measurement of the whole-blood concentrations of CQ and desethylchloroquine (DCQ), and identification of the Plasmodium falciparum genotypes. The 28-day cumulative incidences of therapeutic failure for CQ and SP were, respectively, 47% (N = 36) and 22% (N = 50) in the treatment of P. falciparum, and 18% (N = 77) and 67% (N = 6) in the treatment of P. vivax. Chloroquine was thus an ineffective therapy for P. falciparum malaria, and the presence of CQ-resistant P. vivax and SP-resistant P. falciparum will further compromise efforts to control resurgent malaria on Java.