Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Correcting physical activity energy expenditure for body size in young children

Being able to compare the energy cost of physical activity across and between populations is important. However, energy expenditure is related to body size, so it is necessary to appropriately adjust for differences in body size when comparisons are made. This study examined the relationship between the daily energy cost of activity and body weight in 47 children aged 6-10 years. Log-log regression showed weight(1.0) to be an inappropriate adjustment for activity energy expenditure in children, with a more valid adjustment being weight(0.3). Clearly, both weight dependent and non-weight dependent activities are part of everyday living in children. This balance influences how energy expenditure is correctly adjusted for body size. Investigators interpreting data of energy expenditure in children from children of different body sizes need to take this into consideration.

Hydraulic Design of Stepped Spillways and Downstream Energy Dissipators for Embankment Dams

In recent years, the design flows of many dams were re-evaluated, often resulting in discharges larger than the original design. In many cases, the occurrence of the revised flows could result in dam overtopping because of insufficient storage and spillway capacity. An experimental study was conducted herein to gain a better understanding of the flow properties in stepped chutes with slopes typical of embankment dams. The work was based upon a Froude similitude in large-size experimental facilities. A total of 10 configurations were tested including smooth steps, steps equipped with devices to enhance energy dissipation and rough steps. The present results yield a new design procedure. The design method includes some key issues not foreseen in prior studies : e.g., gradually varied flow, type of flow regime, flow resistance. It is believed that the outcomes are valid for a wide range of chute geometry and flow conditions typical of embankment chutes.

Least energy solutions of a critical Neumann problem with a weight

We investigate the effect of the coefficient of the critical nonlinearity for the Neumann problem on the existence of least energy solutions. As a by-product we establish a Sobolev inequality with interior norm.

Algebraic Bethe ansatz method for the exact calculation of energy spectra and form factors: applications to models of Bose-Einstein condensates and metallic nanograins

In this review we demonstrate how the algebraic Bethe ansatz is used for the calculation of the-energy spectra and form factors (operator matrix elements in the basis of Hamiltonian eigenstates) in exactly solvable quantum systems. As examples we apply the theory to several models of current interest in the study of Bose-Einstein condensates, which have been successfully created using ultracold dilute atomic gases. The first model we introduce describes Josephson tunnelling between two coupled Bose-Einstein condensates. It can be used not only for the study of tunnelling between condensates of atomic gases, but for solid state Josephson junctions and coupled Cooper pair boxes. The theory is also applicable to models of atomic-molecular Bose-Einstein condensates, with two examples given and analysed. Additionally, these same two models are relevant to studies in quantum optics; Finally, we discuss the model of Bardeen, Cooper and Schrieffer in this framework, which is appropriate for systems of ultracold fermionic atomic gases, as well as being applicable for the description of superconducting correlations in metallic grains with nanoscale dimensions.; In applying all the above models to. physical situations, the need for an exact analysis of small-scale systems is established due to large quantum fluctuations which render mean-field approaches inaccurate.

Net uptake of dissolved free amino acids by the giant clam, Tridacna maxima: alternative sources of energy and nitrogen?

The role of dissolved free amino acids (DFAA) in nitrogen and energy budgets was investigated for the giant clam, Tridacna maxima, growing under field conditions at One Tree Island, at the southern end of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Giant clams (121.5-143.7 mm in shell length) took up neutral, acidic and basic amino acids. The rates of net uptake of DFAA did not differ between light and dark, nor for clams growing under normal or slightly enriched ammonium concentrations. Calculations based on the net uptake concentrations typical of the maximum concentrations of DFAA found in coral reef waters (similar to 0.1 mu M)revealed that DFAA could only contribute 0.1% and 1% of the energy and nitrogen demands of giant clams, respectively. These results suggest that DFAA does not supply significant amounts of energy or nitrogen for giant clams or their symbionts.

Assessment of limb muscle and adipose tissue by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry using magnetic resonance imaging for comparison

OBJECTIVE: To use magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to validate estimates of muscle and adipose tissue (AT) in lower limb sections obtained by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) modelling. DESIGN: MRI measurements were used as reference for validating limb muscle and AT estimates obtained by DXA models that assume fat-free soft tissue (FFST) comprised mainly muscle: model A accounted for bone hydration only; model B also applied constants for FFST in bone and skin and fat in muscle and AT; model C was as model B but allowing for variable fat in muscle and AT. SUBJECTS: Healthy men (n = 8) and women (n = 8), ages 41 - 62 y; mean (s.d.) body mass indices (BMIs) of 28.6 (5.4) kg/m(2) and 25.1 (5.4) kg/m2, respectively. MEASUREMENTS: MRI scans of the legs and whole body DXA scans were analysed for muscle and AT content of thigh (20 cm) and lower leg (10 cm) sections; 24 h creatinine excretion was measured. RESULTS: Model A overestimated thigh muscle volume (MRI mean, 2.3 l) substantially (bias 0.36 l), whereas model B underestimated it by only 2% (bias 0.045 l). Lower leg muscle (MRI mean, 0.6 l) was better predicted using model A (bias 0.04 l, 7% overestimate) than model B (bias 0.1 l, 17% underestimate). The 95% limits of agreement were high for these models (thigh,+/- 20%; lower leg,+/- 47%). Model C predictions were more discrepant than those of model B. There was generally less agreement between MRI and all DXA models for AT. Measurement variability was generally less for DXA measurements of FFST (coefficient of variation 0.7 - 1.8%) and fat (0.8 - 3.3%) than model B estimates of muscle (0.5-2.6%) and AT (3.3 - 6.8%), respectively. Despite strong relationships between them, muscle mass was overestimated by creatinine excretion with highly variable predictability. CONCLUSION: This study has shown the value of DXA models for assessment of muscle and AT in leg sections, but suggests the need to re-evaluate some of the assumptions upon which they are based.

Determination of activation energy distributions for chemisorption of oxygen on carbon: an improved approach

The present paper proposes an approach to obtaining the activation energy distribution for chemisorption of oxygen onto carbon surfaces, while simultaneously allowing for the activation energy dependence of the pre-exponential factor of the rate constant. Prior studies in this area have considered this factor to be uniform, thereby biasing estimated distributions. The results show that the derived activation energy distribution is not sensitive to the chemisorption mechanism because of the step function like property of the coverage. The activation energy distribution is essentially uniform for some carbons, and has two or possibly more discrete stages, suggestive of at least two types of sites, each with its own uniform distribution. The pre-exponential factors of the reactions are determined directly from the experimental data, and are found not to be constant as assumed in earlier work, but correlated with the activation energy. The latter results empirically follow an exponential function, supporting some earlier statistical and experimental work. The activation energy distribution obtained in the present paper permits improved correlation of chemisorption data in comparison to earlier studies. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

Free energy approximations in simple lattice proteins

This work addresses the question of whether it is possible to define simple pairwise interaction terms to approximate free energies of proteins or polymers. Rather than ask how reliable a potential of mean force is, one can ask how reliable it could possibly be. In a two-dimensional, infinite lattice model system one can calculate exact free energies by exhaustive enumeration. A series of approximations were fitted to exact results to assess the feasibility and utility of pairwise free energy terms. Approximating the true free energy with pairwise interactions gives a poor fit with little transferability between systems of different size. Adding extra artificial terms to the approximation yields better fits, but does not improve the ability to generalize from one system size to another. Furthermore, one cannot distinguish folding from nonfolding sequences via the approximated free energies. Most usefully, the methodology shows how one can assess the utility of various terms in lattice protein/polymer models. (C) 2001 American Institute of Physics.

An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.