Psychosocial sequelae of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake .2. Exposure and morbidity profiles during the first 2 years post-disaster

Background. A sample of 1089 Australian adults was selected for the longitudinal component of the Quake Impact Study, a 2-year, four-phase investigation of the psychosocial effects of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake. Of these, 845 (78%) completed a survey 6 months post-disaster as well as one or more of the three follow-up surveys. Methods. The phase I survey was used to construct dimensional indices of self-reported exposure to threat the disruption and also to classify subjects by their membership of five 'at risk' groups (the injured; the displaced; owners of damaged small businesses; helpers in threat and non-threat situations). Psychological morbidity was assessed at each phase using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and the Impact of Event Scale (IES). Results. Psychological morbidity declined over time but tended to stabilize at about 12 months post-disaster for general morbidity (GHQ-12) and at about 18 months for trauma-related (IES) morbidity. Initial exposure to threat and/or disruption were significant predictors of psychological morbidity throughout the study and had superior predictive power to membership of the targeted 'at risk' groups. The degree of ongoing disruption and other life events since the earthquake were also significant predictors of morbidity. The injured reported the highest levels of distress, but there was a relative absence of morbidity among the helpers. Conclusions. Future disaster research should carefully assess the threat and disruption experiences of the survivors at the time of the event and monitor ongoing disruptions in the aftermath in order to target interventions more effectively.

Automated regional myocardial displacement for facilitating the interpretation of dobutamine echocardiography

Quantification of stress echocardiography may overcome the training requirements and subjective nature of visual wall motion score (WMS) assessment, but quantitative approaches may be difficult to apply and require significant time for image processing. The integral of long-axis myocardial velocity is displacement, which may be represented as a color map over the left ventricular myocardium. This study was designed to explore the feasibility and accuracy of measuring long-axis myocardial displacement, derived from tissue Doppler, for the detection of coronary artery disease (CAD) during dobutamine stress echocardiography (DBE). One hundred thirty patients underwent standard DBE, including 30 patients at low risk of CAD, 30 patients with normal coronary angiography (both groups studied to define normal ranges of displacement), and 70 patients who underwent coronary angiography in whom the accuracy of normal ranges was tested. Regional myocardial displacement was obtained by analysis of color tissue Doppler apical images acquired at peak stress. Displacement was compared with WMS, and with the presence of CAD by angiography. The analysis time was 3.2 +/- 1.5 minutes per patient. Segmental displacement was correlated with wall motion (normal 7.4 +/- 3.2 mm, ischemia 5.8 +/- 4.2 mm, viability 4.6 +/- 3.0 mm, scar 4.5 +/- 3.5 mm, p <0.001). Reversal of normal base-apex displacement was an insensitive (19%) but specific (90%) marker of CAD. The sum of displacements within each vascular territory had a sensitivity and specificity of 89% and 79%, respectively, for prediction of significant CAD, compared with 86% and 78%, respectively, for WMS (p = NS). The displacements in the basal segments had a sensitivity and specificity of 83% and 78%, respectively (p = NS). Regional myocardial displacement during DBE is feasible and offers a fast and accurate method for the diagnosis of CAD. (C),2002 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

Productivity growth in pre-1990 Mongolian agriculture: Spiralling disaster or emerging success?

The reasons for the spectacular collapse of so many centrally-planned economies are a source of ongoing debate. In this paper, we use detailed farm-level data to measure total factor productivity (TFP) changes in Mongolian grain and potato farming during the 14-year period immediately preceding the 1990 economic reforms. We measure TFP growth using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods. Our results indicate quite poor overall performance, with an average annual TFP change of - 1.7% in grain and 0.8% in potatoes, over the 14-year period. However, the pattern of TFP growth changed substantially during this period, with TFP growth exceeding 7% per year in the latter half of this period. This suggests that the new policies of improved education, greater management autonomy, and improved incentives, which were introduced in final two planning periods in the 1980s, were beginning to have a significant influence upon the performance of Mongolian crop farming. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Birth-death processes with disaster and instantaneous resurrection

A new structure with the special property that instantaneous resurrection and mass disaster are imposed on an ordinary birth-death process is considered. Under the condition that the underlying birth-death process is exit or bilateral, we are able to give easily checked existence criteria for such Markov processes. A very simple uniqueness criterion is also established. All honest processes are explicitly constructed. Ergodicity properties for these processes are investigated. Surprisingly, it can be proved that all the honest processes are not only recurrent but also ergodic without imposing any extra conditions. Equilibrium distributions are then established. Symmetry and reversibility of such processes are also investigated. Several examples are provided to illustrate our results.

Do dogs (canis familiaris) understand invisible displacement?

Domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) perform above chance on invisible displacement tasks despite showing few other signs of possessing the necessary representational abilities. Four experiments investigated how dogs find an object that has been hidden in 1 of 3 opaque boxes. Dogs passed the task under a variety of control conditions, but only if the device used to displace the object ended up adjacent to the target box after the displacement. These results suggest that the search behavior of dogs was guided by simple associative rules rather than mental representation of the object's past trajectory. In contrast, Experiment 5 found that on the same task, 18- and 24-month-old children showed no disparity between trials in which the displacement device was adjacent or nonadjacent to the target box.