Relative accuracy and predictive ability of direct valuation methods, price to aggregate earnings method and a hybrid approach

In this paper, we assess the relative performance of the direct valuation method and industry multiplier models using 41 435 firm-quarter Value Line observations over an 11 year (1990–2000) period. Results from both pricingerror and return-prediction analyses indicate that direct valuation yields lower percentage pricing errors and greater return prediction ability than the forward price to aggregated forecasted earnings multiplier model. However, a simple hybrid combination of these two methods leads to more accurate intrinsic value estimates, compared to either method used in isolation. It would appear that fundamental analysis could benefit from using one approach as a check on the other.

Estimation of water retention curve from mercury intrusion porosimetry and van Genuchten model

The water retention curve (WRC) is a hydraulic characteristic of concrete required for advanced modeling of water (and thus solute) transport in variably saturated, heterogeneous concrete. Unfortunately, determination by a direct experimental method (for example, measuring equilibrium moisture levels of large samples stored in constant humidity cells) is a lengthy process, taking over 2 years for large samples. A surrogate approach is presented in which the WRC is conveniently estimated from mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) and validated by water sorption isotherms: The well-known Barrett, Joyner and Halenda (BJH) method of estimating the pore size distribution (PSD) from the water sorption isotherm is shown to complement the PSD derived from conventional MIP. This provides a basis for predicting the complete WRC from MIP data alone. The van Genuchten equation is used to model the combined water sorption and MIP results. It is a convenient tool for describing water retention characteristics over the full moisture content range. The van Genuchten parameter estimation based solely on MIP is shown to give a satisfactory approximation to the WRC, with a simple restriction on one. of the parameters.

Genetic assignment methods for the direct, real-time estimation of migration rate: a simulation-based exploration of accuracy and power

Genetic assignment methods use genotype likelihoods to draw inference about where individuals were or were not born, potentially allowing direct, real-time estimates of dispersal. We used simulated data sets to test the power and accuracy of Monte Carlo resampling methods in generating statistical thresholds for identifying F-0 immigrants in populations with ongoing gene flow, and hence for providing direct, real-time estimates of migration rates. The identification of accurate critical values required that resampling methods preserved the linkage disequilibrium deriving from recent generations of immigrants and reflected the sampling variance present in the data set being analysed. A novel Monte Carlo resampling method taking into account these aspects was proposed and its efficiency was evaluated. Power and error were relatively insensitive to the frequency assumed for missing alleles. Power to identify F-0 immigrants was improved by using large sample size (up to about 50 individuals) and by sampling all populations from which migrants may have originated. A combination of plotting genotype likelihoods and calculating mean genotype likelihood ratios (D-LR) appeared to be an effective way to predict whether F-0 immigrants could be identified for a particular pair of populations using a given set of markers.

Direct restorative materials use in Australia in 2002

Background: This study aimed to determine the reasons for dentists' choice of materials, in particular amalgam and resin composite, in Australia. Method: A questionnaire was developed to elicit this information. The names and addresses of 1000 dentists in Australia were selected at random. The questionnaire was mailed to these dentists with an explanatory letter and reply-paid envelope. Results: A total of 560 replies were received. Regarding choice of material, 99 per cent of respondents cited clinical indication as an influencing factor, although patients' aesthetic demands (99 per cent), patients' financial situation (82 per cent), and lecturers' suggestions (72 per cent) were also reported to influence respondents' choice of materials. Twelve per cent of respondents used composite 'always', 29 per cent 'often', 32 per cent 'sometimes', 23 per cent 'seldom' and 4 per cent 'never' in extensive load-bearing cavities in molar teeth. For composite restorations in posterior teeth, 84 per cent 'always', 'often' or 'sometimes' used the total etch technique, 84 per cent used a thick glass-ionomer layer and 36 per cent never used rubber dam. Fifty-nine per cent of respondents reported a decreased use of amalgam over the previous five years. Sixty-eight per cent of respondents agreed with the statement 'discontinuation of amalgam restricts a dentist's ability to adequately treat patients'. Seventy-five per cent considered that the growth in the use of composites increased the total cost of oral health care. Conclusions: Of the respondents from Australia 73 per cent place large composite restorations in molar teeth and their choice of material is influenced greatly by clinical indications, and patients' aesthetic demands.

A PCR method for the identification of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) from screening swabs

Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the discriminatory power and potential turn around time ( TAT) of a PCR-based method for the detection of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) from screening swabs. Methods: Screening swabs were examined using the current laboratory protocol of direct culture on mannitol salt agar supplemented with oxacillin (MSAO-direct). The PCR method involved pre-incubation in broth for 4 hours followed by a multiplex PCR with primers directed to mecA and nuc genes of MRSA. The reference standard was determined by pre-incubation in broth for 4 hours followed by culture on MSAO (MSAO-broth). Results: A total of 256 swabs was analysed. The rates of detection of MRSA using MSAO-direct, MSAO-broth and PCR were 10.2, 13.3 and 10.2%, respectively. For PCR, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values were 66.7% (95% CI 51.9 - 83.3%), 98.6% ( 95% CI 97.1 - 100%), 84.6% ( 95% CI 76.2 - 100%) and 95.2% ( 95% CI 92.4 - 98.0%), respectively, and these results were almost identical to those obtained from MSAO-direct. The agreement between MSAO-direct and PCR was 61.5% ( 95% CI 42.8 - 80.2%) for positive results, 95.6% ( 95% CI 93.0 - 98.2%) for negative results and overall was 92.2% ( 95% CI 88.9 - 95.5%). Conclusions: ( 1) The discriminatory power of PCR and MSAO-direct is similar but the level of agreement, especially for true positive results, is low. ( 2) The potential TAT for the PCR method provides a marked advantage over conventional methods. ( 3) Further modifications to the PCR method such as increased broth incubation time, use of selective broth and adaptation to real-time PCR may lead to improvement in sensitivity and TAT.

Laser frequency locking by direct measurement of detuning

We present a new method of laser frequency locking in which the feedback signal is directly proportional to the detuning from an atomic transition, even at detunings many times the natural linewidth of the transition. Our method is a form of sub-Doppler polarization spectroscopy, based on measuring two Stokes parameters (I-2 and I-3) of light transmitted through a vapor cell. It extends the linear capture range of the lock loop by as much as an order of magnitude and provides frequency discrimination equivalent to or better than those of other commonly used locking techniques. (C) 2004 Optical Society of America

Is the method of signal analysis and test selection important for measuring standing balance in subjects with persistent whiplash?

Dizziness and or unsteadiness, associated with episodes of loss of balance, are frequent complaints in those suffering from persistent problems following a whiplash injury. Research has been inconclusive with respect to possible aetiology, discriminative tests and analyses used. The aim of this pilot research was to identify the test conditions and the most appropriate method for the analysis of sway that may differentiate subjects with persistent whiplash associated disorders (WAD) from healthy controls. The six conditions of the Clinical Test for Sensory Interaction in Balance was performed in both comfortable and tandem stance in 20 subjects with persistent WAD compared to 20 control subjects. The analyses were carried out using a traditional method of measurement, total sway distance, to results obtained from the use of wavelet analysis. Subjects with WAD were significantly less able to complete the tandem stance tests on a firm surface than controls. In comfortable stance, using wavelet analysis, significant differences between subjects with WAD and the control group were evident in total energy of the trace for all test conditions apart from eyes open on the firm surface. In contrast, the results of the analysis using total sway distance revealed no significant differences between groups across all six conditions. Wavelet analysis may be more appropriate for detecting disturbances in balance in whiplash subjects because the technique allows separation of the noise from the underlying systematic effect of sway. These findings will be used to direct future studies on the aeitiology of balance disturbances in WAD. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Piggery pond sludge as a nitrogen source for crops - 2. Assay of wet and stockpiled piggery pond sludge by successive cereal crops or direct measurement of soil available N

The appropriate use of wastes is a significant issue for the pig industry due to increasing pressure from regulatory authorities to protect the environment from pollution. Nitrogen contained in piggery pond sludge ( PPS) is a potential source of supplementary nutrient for crop production. Nitrogen contribution following the application of PPS to soil was obtained from 2 field experiments on the Darling Downs in southern Queensland on contrasting soil types, a cracking clay ( Vertosol) and a hardsetting sandy loam (Sodosol), and related to potentially mineralisable N from laboratory incubations conducted under controlled conditions and NO3- accumulation in the field. Piggery pond sludge was applied as-collected ( wet PPS) and following stockpiling to dry ( stockpiled PPS). Soil NO3- levels increased with increased application rates of wet and stockpiled PPS. Supplementary N supply from PPS estimated by fertiliser equivalence was generally unsatisfactory due to poor precision with this method, and also due to a high level of NO3- in the clay soil before the first assay crop. Also low recoveries of N by subsequent sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor) and wheat ( Triticum aestivum) assay crops at the 2 sites due to low in-crop rainfall in 1999 resulted in low apparent N availability. Over all, 29% ( range 12 - 47%) of total N from the wet PPS and 19% ( range 0 - 50%) from the stockpiled PPS were estimated to be plant-available N during the assay period. The high concentration of NO3- for the wet PPS application on sandy soil after the first assay crop ( 1998 barley, Hordeum vulgare) suggests that leaching of NO3- could be of concern when high rates of wet PPS are applied before infrequent periods of high precipitation, due primarily to the mineral N contained in wet PPS. Low yields, grain protein concentrations, and crop N uptake of the sorghum crop following the barley crop grown on the clay soil demonstrated a low residual value of N applied in PPS. NO3- in the sandy soil before sowing accounted for 79% of the variation in plant N uptake and was a better index than anaerobically mineralisable N ( 19% of variation explained). In clay soil, better prediction of crop N uptake was obtained when both anaerobically mineralisable N (39% of variation explained) and soil pro. le NO3- were used in combination (R-2 = 0.49).

Lifetime prevalence estimates of major depression: An indirect estimation method and a quantification of recall bias

The measurement of lifetime prevalence of depression in cross-sectional surveys is biased by recall problems. We estimated it indirectly for two countries using modelling, and quantified the underestimation in the empirical estimate for one. A microsimulation model was used to generate population-based epidemiological measures of depression. We fitted the model to 1-and 12-month prevalence data from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) and the Australian Adult Mental Health and Wellbeing Survey. The lowest proportion of cases ever having an episode in their life is 30% of men and 40% of women, for both countries. This corresponds to a lifetime prevalence of 20 and 30%, respectively, in a cross-sectional setting (aged 15-65). The NEMESIS data were 38% lower than these estimates. We conclude that modelling enabled us to estimate lifetime prevalence of depression indirectly. This method is useful in the absence of direct measurement, but also showed that direct estimates are underestimated by recall bias and by the cross-sectional setting.

The performance of the maximum ratio combining method in correlated Rician-fading channels for antenna-diversity signal combining

The performance of the maximum ratio combining method for the combining of antenna-diversity signals in correlated Rician-fading channels is rigorously studied. The distribution function of the normalized signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is expanded in terms of a power series and calculated numerically. This power series can easily take into account the signal correlations and antenna gains and can be applied to any number of receiving antennas. An application of the method to dual-antenna diversity systems produces useful distribution curves for the normalized SNR which can be used to find the diversity gain. It is revealed that signal correlation in Rician-fading channels helps to increase the diversity gain rather than to decrease it as in the Rayleigh fading channels. It is also shown that with a relative strong direct signal component, the diversity gain can be much higher than that without a direct signal component.

Unlocking pathology archives for molecular genetic studies: a reliable method to generate probes for chromogenic and fluorescent in situ hybridization

Chromogenic (CISH) and fluorescent ( FISH) in situ hybridization have emerged as reliable techniques to identify amplifications and chromosomal translocations. CISH provides a spatial distribution of gene copy number changes in tumour tissue and allows a direct correlation between copy number changes and the morphological features of neoplastic cells. However, the limited number of commercially available gene probes has hindered the use of this technique. We have devised a protocol to generate probes for CISH that can be applied to formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue sections (FFPETS). Bacterial artificial chromosomes ( BACs) containing fragments of human DNA which map to specific genomic regions of interest are amplified with phi 29 polymerase and random primer labelled with biotin. The genomic location of these can be readily confirmed by BAC end pair sequencing and FISH mapping on normal lymphocyte metaphase spreads. To demonstrate the reliability of the probes generated with this protocol, four strategies were employed: (i) probes mapping to cyclin D1 (CCND1) were generated and their performance was compared with that of a commercially available probe for the same gene in a series of 10 FFPETS of breast cancer samples of which five harboured CCND1 amplification; (ii) probes targeting cyclin-dependent kinase 4 were used to validate an amplification identified by microarray-based comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) in a pleomorphic adenoma; (iii) probes targeting fibroblast growth factor receptor 1 and CCND1 were used to validate amplifications mapping to these regions, as defined by aCGH, in an invasive lobular breast carcinoma with FISH and CISH; and (iv) gene-specific probes for ETV6 and NTRK3 were used to demonstrate the presence of t(12; 15)(p12; q25) translocation in a case of breast secretory carcinoma with dual colour FISH. In summary, this protocol enables the generation of probes mapping to any gene of interest that can be applied to FFPETS, allowing correlation of morphological features with gene copy number.

New method to determine PSD using supercritical adsorption: Applied to methane adsorption in activated carbon

Adsorption of supercritical fluids is increasingly carried out to determine the micropore size distribution. This is largely motivated by the advances in the use of supercritical adsorption in high energy applications, such as hydrogen and methane storage in porous media. Experimental data are reported as mass excess versus pressure, and when these data are matched against the theoretical mass excess, significant errors could occur if the void volume used in the calculation of the experimental mass excess is incorrectly determined [Malbrunot, P.; Vidal, D.; Vermesse, J.; Chahine, R.; Bose, T. K. Langmuir 1997, 13, 539]. 1 The incorrect value for the void volume leads to a wrong description of the maximum in the plot of mass excess versus pressure as well as the part of the isotherm over the pressure region where the isotherm is decreasing. Because of this uncertainty in the maximum and the decreasing part of the isotherm, we propose a new method in which the problems associated with this are completely avoided. Our method involves only the relationship between the amount that is introduced into the adsorption cell and the equilibrium pressure. This information of direct experimental data has two distinct advantages. The first is that the data is the raw data without any manipulation (i.e., involving further calculations), and the second one is that this relationship always monotonically increases with pressure. We will illustrate this new method with the adsorption data of methane in a commercial sample of activated carbon.

Direct seeding to restore rainforest species: Microsite effects on the early establishment and growth of rainforest tree seedlings on degraded land in the wet tropics of Australia

Reforestation in tropical areas is usually attempted by planting seedlings but, direct seeding (the artificial addition or sowing of seed) may be an alternative way of accelerating forest recovery and successional processes. This study investigated the effects of various sowing treatments (designed to create different microsite conditions for seed germination) and seed sizes on the early establishment and growth of directly sown rainforest tree species in a variety of experimental plots at three sites in the wet tropical region of north-cast Queensland, Australia. The different sowing treatments were found to have significant effects on seedling establishment. Broadcast sowing treatments were ineffective and resulted in very poor seedling establishment and high seed wastage. Higher establishment rates occurred when seeds were buried. Seed size was found to be an important factor affecting establishment in relation to micro-site condition. In general, larger seeded species had higher establishment rates at all three sites than species of small and intermediate seed size, but only in sowing treatments where seeds were buried. Overall these results suggest that direct sowing of seed can be used as a too] to accelerate recolonisation of certain rainforest tree species on degraded tropical lands, but initial success will be dependent on the choice of sowing method and its suitability for the seed types selected. The results also indicate that the recruitment of naturally dispersed tree species at degraded sites is likely to be severely limited by the availability of suitable microsites for seed germination. Consequently the natural recovery of degraded sites via seed rain can be expected to be slow and unpredictable, particularly in areas where soil compaction has occurred. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Direct quantification of rare earth element concentrations in natural waters by ICP-MS

A direct quadrupole ICP-MS technique has been developed for the analysis of the rare earth elements and yttrium in natural waters. The method has been validated by comparison of the results obtained for the river water reference material SLRS-4 with literature values. The detection limit of the technique was investigated by analysis of serial dilutions of SLRS-4 and revealed that single elements can be quantified at single-digit fg/g concentrations. A coherent normalised rare earth pattern was retained at concentrations two orders of magnitude below natural concentrations for SLRS-4, demonstrating the excellent inter-element accuracy and precision of the method. The technique was applied to the analysis of a diluted mid-salinity estuarine sample, which also displayed a coherent normalised rare earth element pattern, yielding the expected distinctive marine characteristics. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Direct numerical simulation of turbulent flow and mass transfer around a rotating circular cylinder

Turbulent flow around a rotating circular cylinder has numerous applications including wall shear stress and mass-transfer measurement related to the corrosion studies. It is also of interest in the context of flow over convex surfaces where standard turbulence models perform poorly. The main purpose of this paper is to elucidate the basic turbulence mechanism around a rotating cylinder at low Reynolds numbers to provide a better understanding of flow fundamentals. Direct numerical simulation (DNS) has been performed in a reference frame rotating at constant angular velocity with the cylinder. The governing equations are discretized by using a finite-volume method. As for fully developed channel, pipe, and boundary layer flows, a laminar sublayer, buffer layer, and logarithmic outer region were observed. The level of mean velocity is lower in the buffer and outer regions but the logarithmic region still has a slope equal to the inverse of the von Karman constant. Instantaneous flow visualization revealed that the turbulence length scale typically decreases as the Reynolds number increases. Wavelet analysis provided some insight into the dependence of structural characteristics on wave number. The budget of the turbulent kinetic energy was computed and found to be similar to that in plane channel flow as well as in pipe and zero pressure gradient boundary layer flows. Coriolis effects show as an equivalent production for the azimuthal and radial velocity fluctuations leading to their ratio being lowered relative to similar nonrotating boundary layer flows.