Trends in the incidence, severity, and short-term outcome of stroke in Perth, Western Australia

Background and Purpose-This report describes trends in the key indices of cerebrovascular disease over 6 years from the end of the 1980s in a geographically defined segment of the city of Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Identical methods were used to find and assess all cases of suspected stroke in a population of approximately 134 000 residents in a triangular area of the northern suburbs of Perth. Case fatality was measured as vital status at 28 days after the onset of symptoms. Data for first-ever strokes and for all strokes for equivalent periods of 12 months in 1989-1990 and 1995-1996 were compared by age-standardized rates and proportions and Poisson regression. Results-There were 355 strokes in 328 patients and 251 first-ever strokes (71%) for 1989-1990 and 290 events in 281 patients and 213 first-ever strokes (73%) for 1995-1996. In Poisson models including age and period, overall trends in the incidence of both first-ever strokes (rate ratio = 0.75; 95% confidence limits, 0.63, 0.90) and all strokes (rate ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence limits, 0.62, 0.85) were obviously significant, but only the changes in men were independently significant. Case fatality did not change, and the balance between hemorrhagic and occlusive strokes in 1995-1996 was almost indistinguishable from that observed in 1989-1990. Conclusions-Our results, which are the only longitudinal population-based data available for Australia for key indices of stroke, suggest that it is a change in the frequency of stroke, rather than its outcome, that is chiefly responsible nationally for the fall in mortality from cerebrovascular disease.

Criminal offending in schizophrenia over a 25-year period marked by deinstitutionalization and increasing prevalence of comorbid substance use disorders

Objective: This study examined the pattern of criminal convictions in persons with schizophrenia over a 25-year period marked by both radical deinstitutionalization and increasing rates of substance abuse problems among persons with schizophrenia in the community. Method: The criminal records of 2,861 patients (1,689 of whom were male) who had a first admission for schizophrenia in the Australian state of Victoria in 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1995 were compared for the period from 1975 to 2000 with those of an equal number of community comparison subjects matched for age, gender, and neighborhood of residence. Results: Relative to the comparison subjects, the patients with schizophrenia accumulated a greater total number of criminal convictions (8,791 versus 1,119) and were significantly more likely to have been convicted of a criminal offense (21.6% versus 7.8%) and of an offense involving violence (8.2% versus 1.8%). The proportion of patients who had a conviction increased from 14.8% of the 1975 cohort to 25.0% of the 1995 cohort, but a proportionately similar increase from 5.1% to 9.6% occurred among the comparison subjects. Rates of known substance abuse problems among the schizophrenia patients increased from 8.3% in 1975 to 26.1% in 1995. Significantly higher rates of criminal conviction were found for patients with substances abuse problems than for those without substance abuse problems (68.1% versus 11.7%). Conclusions: A significant association was demonstrated between having schizophrenia and a higher rate of criminal convictions, particularly for violent offenses. However, the rate of increase in the frequency of convictions over the 25-year study period was similar among schizophrenia patients and comparison subjects, despite a change from predominantly institutional to community care and a dramatic escalation in the frequency of substance abuse problems among persons with schizophrenia. The results do not support theories that attempt to explain the mediation of offending behaviors in schizophrenia by single factors, such as substance abuse, active symptoms, or characteristics of systems of care, but suggest that offending reflects a range of factors that are operative before, during, and after periods of active illness.

The Australian mortality decline: all-cause mortality 1788-1990

This review describes the Australian decline in all-cause mortality, 1788-1990, and compares this with declines in Europe and North America. The period until the 1870s shows characteristic 'crisis mortality', attributable to epidemics of infectious disease. A decline in overall mortality is evident from 1880. A precipitous fall occurs in infant mortality from 1900, similar to that in European countries. Infant mortality continues downward during this century (except during the 1930s), with periods of accelerated decline during the 1940s (antibiotics) and early 1970s. Maternal mortality remains high until a precipitous fall in 1937 coinciding with the arrival of sulphonamide. Excess mortality due to the 1919 influenza epidemic is evident. Artefactual falls in mortality occur in 1930, and for men during the war of 1939-1945. Stagnation in overall mortality decline during the 1930s and 1945-1970 is evident for adult males, and during 1960-1970 for adult females. A decline in mortality is registered in both sexes from 1970, particularly in middle and older age groups, with narrowing of the sex differential. The mortality decline in Australia is broadly similar to those of the United Kingdom and several European countries, although an Australian advantage during last century and the first part of this century may have been due to less industrialisation, lower population density and better nutrition. Australia shows no war-related interruptions in the mortality decline. Australian mortality patterns from 1970 are also similar to those observed in North America and European countries (including the United Kingdom, but excluding Eastern Europe).

The Australian mortality decline: cause-specific mortality 1907-1990

This review describes the changes in composition of mortality by major attributed cause during the Australian mortality decline this century. The principal categories employed were: infectious diseases, nonrheumatic cardiovascular disease, external causes, cancer,'other' causes and ill-defined conditions. The data were age-adjusted. Besides registration problems (which also affect all-cause mortality) artefacts due to changes in diagnostic designation and coding-are evident. The most obvious trends over the period are the decline in infectious disease mortality (half the decline 1907-1990 occurs before 1949), and the epidemic of circulatory disease mortality which appears to commence around 1930, peaks during the 1950s and 1960s, and declines from 1970 to 1990 (to a rate half that at the peak). Mortality for cancer remains static for females after 1907, but increases steadily for males, reaching a plateau in the mid-1980s (owing to trends in lung cancer); trends in cancers of individual sites are diverse. External cause mortality declines after 1970. The decline in total mortality to 1930 is associated with decline in infection and 'other' causes, Stagnation of mortality decline in 1930-1940 and 1946-1970 for males is a consequence of contemporaneous movements in opposite directions of infection mortality (decrease) and circulatory disease and cancer mortality (increase). In females, declines in infections and 'other' causes of death exceed the increase in circulatory disease mortality until 1960, then stability in all major causes of death to 1970. The overall mortality decline since 1970 is a consequence of a reduction in circulatory disease,'other' cause, external cause and infection mortality, despite the increase in cancer mortality (for males).

Treads in opiate-related deaths in the United Kingdom and Australia, 1985-1995

This paper compares data on rates of opiate overdose mortality in the UK and Australia between 1985 and 1995. Data on rates of ICD 9-coded overdose mortality were obtained from the Office of National Statistics in the UK and from the Australian Bureau of Statistics mortality register. The proportion of all deaths attributed to opioid overdose increased in both countries between 1985 and 1995. The proportion of all deaths attributed to opioid overdose was substantially higher in Australia than in the UK, but methadone appeared to contribute to more opioid overdose deaths in the UK (50%) than in Australia (18%). Given deficiencies in the available data, the reasons for these differences between the two countries are uncertain but a plausible hypothesis is that the greater availability and ease of access to methadone maintenance in the UK contributes to both the lower rate of opioid overdose mortality and the greater apparent contribution that methadone makes to opioid overdose deaths in that country. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term disability after first-ever stroke and related prognostic factors in the Perth Community Stroke Study, 1989-1990

Background and Purpose-Few reliable estimates of the long-term functional outcome after stroke are available. This population-based study aimed to describe disability, dependency, and related independent prognostic factors at 5 years after,a first-ever stroke in patients in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-All individuals with a suspected acute stroke who were resident in a geographically defined region (population, 138 708) of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria over a period of 18 months in 1989 to 1990. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 and 12 months and 5 years after the index event. Results-There were 370 cases of first-ever stroke, and 277 patients survived to 30 days. Of these early survivors, 152 (55%) were alive at 5 years, and among those who were neither institutionalized (n=146) nor disabled (n=129) at the time of their stroke, 21 (14%) were institutionalized in a nursing home, and 47 (36%) were disabled. The most important predictors of death or disability at 5 years were increasing age, baseline disability defined by a Barthel Index score of <20/20 (odds ratio [OR], 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.7 to 14), moderate hemiparesis (OR, 2.7. 95% CI, 1.1 to 6.2), severe hemiparesis (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 19), and recurrent stroke (OR, 9.4; 95% CI, 3.0 to 30). A low level of activity before the stroke was a significant predictor of institutionalization, and subsequent recurrent stroke was a consistent, independent predictor of institutionalization, disability, and death or institutionalization, increasing the odds of each of these 3 adverse outcomes by 5- to 15-fold. Conclusions-Among 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, about half survive 5 years; of survivors, one third remain disabled, and I in 7 are in permanent institutional care. The major modifiable predictors of poor long-term outcome are a low level of activity before the stroke and subsequent recurrent stroke. Efforts to increase physical activity among the elderly and to prevent recurrent stroke in survivors of a first stroke are likely to reduce the long-term burden of cerebrovascular disease.

Cancer knowledge and skills of interns in Australia and New Zealand in 2001: comparison with 1990, and between course types

Objective: To compare the cancer knowledge and skills of interns in 2001 who graduated from graduate medical program (GMP) courses with those from non-GMP courses, and to compare the cancer knowledge and skills of interns in 2001 with those who completed a similar survey in 1990. Design: Questionnaire survey of recently graduated interns in a random sample of Australian and New Zealand hospitals. The questionnaire was designed to allow direct comparison with the 1990 survey, and was guided by the Australian Cancer Society's Ideal Oncology Curriculum for Medical Schools. Results: 443 interns completed the survey (response rate, 62%; 42 were excluded, leaving 401 surveys for analysis: 118 from GMP courses and 283 from non-GMP courses). Interns from GMP courses felt more competent than those from non-GMP courses at discussing death (P= 0.02), breaking bad news (P= 0.04) and advising on smoking cessation (P= 0.02), but less competent at preparing a patient for a hazardous procedure (P= 0.02). Mote GMP interns would refer a breast cancer patient to a multidisciplinary clinic (83% versus 70%; P= 0.03). Knowledge about cancer risks and prognosis was significantly less in GMP interns, but GMP interns rated their clinical skills, such as taking a Pap smear, higher than non-GMP interns. The GMP and non-GMP groups did not differ in their exposure to cancer patients, but compared with 1990 interns recent graduates had less exposure to patients with cancer. Conclusions: GMP curricula appear to have successfully introduced new course material and new methods of teaching, but have not always succeeded in producing doctors with better knowledge about cancer. Recent graduates have less exposure to cancer patients than those who trained 10 years ago.

Impact of voluntary folate fortification on plasma homocysteine and serum folate in Australia from 1995 to 2001: a population based cohort study

Study objective: To investigate the effect of the voluntary folate fortification policy in Australia on serum folate and total plasma homocysteine (tHcy) concentrations. Design: Population based cohort study. Setting: Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men and women aged 27 to 77 years (n = 468), who were originally randomly selected from the Perth electoral roll. The cohort was surveyed in 1995/96 before widespread introduction of folate fortification of a variety of foods, and followed up on two occasions, firstly in 1998/99 and again in 2001, when a moderate number of folate fortified foods were available. Subjects with abnormal serum creatinine concentrations at baseline were excluded from this analysis. Main results: Repeated measures analysis of variance was used to determine changes in serum folate and tHcy over the three surveys and to assess whether time trends were related to age, sex, MTHFR C677T genotype, or consumption of folate fortified foods. An increase (38%) in mean serum folate (p < 0.0005) and a decrease (21%) in mean tHcy (p < 0.0005) were seen after introduction of the voluntary folate fortification policy in Australia. Serum folate was consistently higher (p = 0.032) and tHcy was consistently lower (p = 0.001) in subjects who consumed at least one folate fortified food compared with subjects who did not consume any folate fortified foods in the previous week. The time related changes in serum folate and tHcy were affected only by intake of folate fortified foods (p < 0.0005) and not by any other measured variables including age, sex, or MTHFR genotype. Conclusion: Voluntary fortification of foods with folate in Australia has been followed by a substantial increase in serum folate and decrease in tHcy in the general population.

Population versus clinical view of case fatality from acute coronary heart disease - Results from the WHO MONICA Project 1985-1990

Background The clinical view of case fatality (CF) from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in those reaching the hospital alive is different from the population view. Registration of both hospitalized AMI cases and out-of-hospital coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths in the WHO MONICA Project allows both views to be reconciled. The WHO MONICA Project provides the largest data set worldwide to explore the relationship between CHD CF and age, sex, coronary event rate, and first versus recurrent event. Methods and Results All 79 669 events of definite AMI or possible coronary death, occurring from 1985 to 90 among 5 725 762 people, 35 to 64 years of age, in 29 MONICA populations are the basis for CF calculations. Age-adjusted CF (percentage of CHD events that were fatal) was calculated across populations, stratified for different time periods, and related to age, sex, and CHD event rate. Median 28-day population CF was 49% (range, 35% to 60%) in men and 51% (range, 34% to 70%) in women and was particularly higher in women than men in populations in which CHD event rates were low. Median 28-day CF for hospitalized events was much lower: in men 22% (range, 15% to 36%) and in women 27% (range, 19% to 46%). Among hospitalized events CF was twice as high for recurrent as for first events. Conclusions Overall 28-day CF is halved for hospitalized events compared with all events and again nearly halved for hospitalized 24-hour survivors. Because approximately two thirds of 28-day CHD deaths in men and women occurred before reaching the hospital, opportunities for reducing CF through improved care in the acute event are limited. Major emphasis should be on primary and secondary prevention.