Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

In the United States and several other countries., the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including. a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to. model disease explicitly.

Role of Diadegma semiclausum (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) in controlling Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae): Cage exclusion experiments and direct observation

We evaluated the role of the larval parasitoid, Diadegma semiclausum Hellen (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae), in controlling Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) by cage exclusion experiments and direct field observation during the winter season in southern Queensland, Australia. The cage exclusion experiment involved uncaged, open cage and closed cage treatments. A higher percentage (54-83%) of P. xylostella larvae on sentinel plants were lost in the uncaged treatment than the closed (4-9%) or open cage treatments (11-29%). Of the larvae that remained in the uncaged treatment, 72-94% were parasitized by D. semiclausum , much higher than that in the open cage treatment (8-37% in first trial, and 38-63% in second trial). Direct observations showed a significant aggregation response of the field D. semiclausum populations to high host density plants in an experimental plot and to high host density plots that were artificially set-up near to the parasitoid source fields. The degree of aggregation varied in response to habitat quality of the parasitoid source field and scales of the manipulated host patches. As a result, density-dependence in the pattern of parasitism may depend on the relative degree of aggregation of the parasitoid population at a particular scale. A high degree of aggregation seems to be necessary to generate density-dependent parasitism by D. semiclausum . Integration of the cage exclusion experiment and direct observation demonstrated the active and dominant role of this parasitoid in controlling P. xylostella in the winter season. A biologically based IPM strategy, which incorporates the use of D. semiclausum with Bt, is suggested for the management of P. xylostella in seasons or regions with a mild temperature.

Habitat selection and population regulation in temporally fluctuating environments

Understanding and predicting the distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environments lies at the heart of ecology, and the theory of density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) provides ecologists with an inferential framework linking evolution and population dynamics. Current theory does not allow for temporal variation in habitat quality, a serious limitation when confronted with real ecological systems. We develop both a stochastic equivalent of the ideal free distribution to study how spatial patterns of habitat use depend on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity and also a stochastic habitat selection rule. The emerging patterns are confronted with deterministic predictions based on isodar analysis, an established empirical approach to the analysis of habitat selection patterns. Our simulations highlight some consistent patterns of habitat use, indicating that it is possible to make inferences about the habitat selection process based on observed patterns of habitat use. However, isodar analysis gives results that are contingent on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity. Hence, DDHS is better revealed by a measure of habitat selectivity than by empirical isodars. The detection of DDHS is but a small component of isodar theory, which remains an important conceptual framework for linking evolutionary strategies in behavior and population dynamics.

Potential interactions between humans and non-breeding shorebirds on a subtropical intertidal flat

The primary aim of this study was to investigate whether bait harvesting, with all its inherent effects, occurring in the intertidal zone of a subtropical estuary, had an impact on a migratory shorebird, the eastern curlew Numenius madagascariensis. In a large-scale manipulative study (units of experiment were 1 ha plots), callianassid shrimp Trypaea australiensis populations were harvested simulating the technique (manual pumping) and the levels of harvesting intensity per unit area (347 shrimp per hectare per harvesting event) exhibited by bait-collectors in SE Australia and South Africa. It was found that at present levels of harvesting intensity per unit area (approximately 1% of standing stock removed per harvesting event) there is no threat to the stocks of Trypaea exploited by the curlews in Moreton Bay, Australia. However, the results show that the curlews themselves apply a considerable predation pressure on Trypaea. Based on the birds' foraging rates and densities, it was estimated that they would consume up to 100% of the initial Trypaea stock over the course of a non-breeding season (October to March). However, the stable seasonal trend in the density of the size-cohort of Trypaea preyed upon by the curlews indicates that the existing rates of predation are easily counterbalanced, e.g. through continuous density-dependent recruitment of these crustaceans. We suggest that this mechanism will provide for a stable foraging environment for both the shorebirds and bait collectors.

Modeling molecular transport in slit pores

We examine the transport of methane in microporous carbon by performing equilibrium and nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations over a range of pore sizes, densities, and temperatures. We interpret these simulation results using two models of the transport process. At low densities, we consider a molecular flow model, in which intermolecular interactions are neglected, and find excellent agreement between transport diffusion coefficients determined from simulation, and those predicted by the model. Simulation results indicate that the model can be applied up to fluid densities of the order to 0.1-1 nm(-3). Above these densities, we consider a slip flow model, combining hydrodynamic theory with a slip condition at the solid-fluid interface. As the diffusion coefficient at low densities can be accurately determined by the molecular flow model, we also consider a model where the slip condition is supplied by the molecular flow model. We find that both density-dependent models provide a useful means of estimating the transport coefficient that compares well with simulation. (C) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Spatial and temporal variability in somatic growth of green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) resident in the Hawaiian Archipelago

The somatic growth dynamics of green turtles ( Chelonia mydas) resident in five separate foraging grounds within the Hawaiian Archipelago were assessed using a robust non-parametric regression modelling approach. The foraging grounds range from coral reef habitats at the north-western end of the archipelago, to coastal habitats around the main islands at the southeastern end of the archipelago. Pelagic juveniles recruit to these neritic foraging grounds from ca. 35 cm SCL or 5 kg ( similar to 6 years of age), but grow at foraging-ground-specific rates, which results in quite different size- and age-specific growth rate functions. Growth rates were estimated for the five populations as change in straight carapace length ( cm SCL year) 1) and, for two of the populations, also as change in body mass ( kg year) 1). Expected growth rates varied from ca. 0 - 2.5 cm SCL year) 1, depending on the foraging-ground population, which is indicative of slow growth and decades to sexual maturity, since expected size of first-time nesters is greater than or equal to 80 cm SCL. The expected size- specific growth rate functions for four populations sampled in the southeastern archipelago displayed a non-monotonic function, with an immature growth spurt at ca. 50 - 53 cm SCL ( similar to 18 - 23 kg) or ca. 13 - 19 years of age. The growth spurt for the Midway atoll population in the northwestern archipelago occurs at a much larger size ( ca. 65 cm SCL or 36 kg), because of slower immature growth rates that might be due to a limited food stock and cooler sea surface temperature. Expected age-at-maturity was estimated to be ca. 35 - 40 years for the four populations sampled at the south-eastern end of the archipelago, but it might well be > 50 years for the Midway population. The Hawaiian stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, with no differences in mtDNA stock composition between foraging-ground populations, so that the geographic variability in somatic growth rates within the archipelago is more likely due to local environmental factors rather than genetic factors. Significant temporal variability was also evident, with expected growth rates declining over the last 10 - 20 years, while green turtle abundance within the archipelago has increased significantly since the mid-1970s. This inverse relationship between somatic growth rates and population abundance suggests a density-dependent effect on somatic growth dynamics that has also been reported recently for a Caribbean green turtle stock. The Hawaiian green turtle stock is characterised by slow growth rates displaying significant spatial and temporal variation and an immature growth spurt. This is consistent with similar findings for a Great Barrier Reef green turtle stock that also comprises many foraging-ground populations spanning a wide geographic range.

Similarity solution of axisymmetric flow in porous media

Applications of the axisymmetric Boussinesq equation to groundwater hydrology and reservoir engineering have long been recognised. An archetypal example is invasion by drilling fluid into a permeable bed where there is initially no such fluid present, a circumstance of some importance in the oil industry. It is well known that the governing Boussinesq model can be reduced to a nonlinear ordinary differential equation using a similarity variable, a transformation that is valid for a certain time-dependent flux at the origin. Here, a new analytical approximation is obtained for this case. The new solution,, which has a simple form, is demonstrated to be highly accurate. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the effect of fibropapilloma disease on the somatic growth dynamics of Hawaiian green sea turtles

The effect of the tumour-forming disease, fibropapillomatosis, on the somatic growth dynamics of green turtles resident in the Pala'au foraging grounds (Moloka'i, Hawai'i) was evaluated using a Bayesian generalised additive mixed modelling approach. This regression model enabled us to account for fixed effects (fibropapilloma tumour severity), nonlinear covariate functional form (carapace size, sampling year) as well as random effects due to individual heterogeneity and correlation between repeated growth measurements on some turtles. Somatic growth rates were found to be nonlinear functions of carapace size and sampling year but were not a function of low-to-moderate tumour severity. On the other hand, growth rates were significantly lower for turtles with advanced fibropapillomatosis, which suggests a limited or threshold-specific disease effect. However, tumour severity was an increasing function of carapace size-larger turtles tended to have higher tumour severity scores, presumably due to longer exposure of larger (older) turtles to the factors that cause the disease. Hence turtles with advanced fibropapillomatosis tended to be the larger turtles, which confounds size and tumour severity in this study. But somatic growth rates for the Pala'au population have also declined since the mid-1980s (sampling year effect) while disease prevalence and severity increased from the mid-1980s before levelling off by the mid-1990s. It is unlikely that this decline was related to the increasing tumour severity because growth rates have also declined over the last 10-20 years for other green turtle populations resident in Hawaiian waters that have low or no disease prevalence. The declining somatic growth rate trends evident in the Hawaiian stock are more likely a density-dependent effect caused by a dramatic increase in abundance by this once-seriously-depleted stock since the mid-1980s. So despite increasing fibropapillomatosis risk over the last 20 years, only a limited effect on somatic growth dynamics was apparent and the Hawaiian green turtle stock continues to increase in abundance.

Unidirectional inversion of ibuprofen in Caco-2 cells: Developing a suitable model for presystemic chiral inversion study

Intestinal chiral inversion of ibuprofen is still lacking direct evidence. In a preliminary experiment, ibuprofen was found to undergo inversion in Caco-2 cells. This investigation was thus conducted to determine the characteristics and influence of some biochemical factors on the chiral inversion of ibuprofen in Caco-2 cells. The effects of substrate concentration (2.5-40 mu g/ml), cell density (0.5-2 x 10(6) cells/ well), content of serum (0-20%), coexistence of S ibuprofen (corresponding doses), sodium azide (10mm), exogenous Coenzyme A (CoA) (0.1 - 0.4 mm),. and palmitic acid (5-25 mu m) on inversion were examined. A stereoselective HPLC method based on the Chromasil-CHI-TBB column was developed for quantitative analysis of the drug in cell culture medium. The inversion ratio (F-i) and elimination rate constant were calculated as the indexes of inversion extent. Inversion of ibuprofen in Caeo-2 cells was found to be both dose and cell density dependent, indicating saturable characteristics. Addition of serum significantly inhibited the inversion, to an extent of 2.7 fold decrease at 20% content. Preexistence of S enantiomer exerted a significant inhibitory effect (p < 0.01 for all tests). Sodium azide decreased the inversion ratio from 0.43 to 0.32 (p < 0.01). Exogenous CoA and palmitic acid significantly promoted the inversion at all tested doses (p < 0.01 for all tests). This research provided strong evidence to the capacity and capability of intestinal chiral inversion. Although long incubation times up to 120 h were required, Caco-2 cells should be a suitable model for chiral inversion research of 2-APAs considering the human-resourced and well-defined characteristics from the present study.

On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tidal impacts on riparian salinities near estuaries

Groundwater-dependent riparian biota is known to be sensitive to changes in soil and groundwater salinity in estuarine systems. The groundwater flow and salinity behaviour in a phreatic aquifer adjoining a partially penetrating, tidal. estuary is investigated through two-dimensional numerical experiments for a lateral cross-section, which explore the influence of factors, such as aquifer and soil materials, tidal amptitudes, and regional groundwater hydraulic gradients. The density contrast between estuarine water and the fresh groundwater drives saltwater penetration of the aquifer even in the case of a marked groundwater hydraulic gradient towards the estuary. We show that tidal fluctuations in estuaries can significantly affect the groundwater salinity distribution in adjacent density-stratified phreatic aquifers. This has consequences for the expected distribution of salinity-sensitive biota in the hyporheic zone as well as vegetation and fauna dependent on water in the riparian soil and aquifer. The shape of the dense saltwater wedge propagating into the adjacent groundwater system is also modified by the estuarine tidal signal, although this effect appears to have only minor influence on the maximum distance penetrated into the aquifer (i.e., location of the 'toe' of the wedge). Tide-induced changes to riparian groundwater salinity are advection-driven, as evidenced by the modified time-averaged groundwater flow dynamics. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stem and crown dimensions as predictors of thinning responses in a crowded tropical rainforest plantation of Flindersia brayleyana F. Muell.

A 67-year-old plantation of Flindersia brayleyana F. Muell. in the wet tropics of north-cast Queensland had developed with minimal management. Before thinning, the stand had a canopy stem density of 770 stems ha(-1) of which 564 were F brayleyana, a stand basal area of 78 m(2) ha(-1), a mean stem diameter at breast height (dbh) of 36 cm, and a mean dbh increment of 5.2 mm year(-1) over the life of the plantation and 0.5 mm year I at the time of thinning. Sixty-three percent of the trees had crown ratios (crown diameter determined from foliage projected area: dbh) of less than 12. Thinning treatments removed 57% of the canopy stems and 45% of the stand basal area. Mean dbh increment over 2.5 years after thinning on basaltic soil was 5.8 +/- 0.3 mm year(-1), but for trees with crown ratio

Low-density koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in the mulgalands of south-west Queensland. IV. Abundance and conservation status

Urban encroachment on dense, coastal koala populations has ensured that their management has received increasing government and public attention. The recently developed National Koala Conservation Strategy calls for maintenance of viable populations in the wild. Yet the success of this, and other, conservation initiatives is hampered by lack of reliable and generally accepted national and regional population estimates. In this paper we address this problem in a potentially large, but poorly studied, regional population in the State that is likely to have the largest wild populations. We draw on findings from previous reports in this series and apply the faecal standing-crop method (FSCM) to derive a regional estimate of more than 59 000 individuals. Validation trials in riverine communities showed that estimates of animal density obtained from the FSCM and direct observation were in close agreement. Bootstrapping and Monte Carlo simulations were used to obtain variance estimates for our population estimates in different vegetation associations across the region. The most favoured habitat was riverine vegetation, which covered only 0.9% of the region but supported 45% of the koalas. We also estimated that between 1969 and 1995 similar to 30% of the native vegetation associations that are considered as potential koala habitat were cleared, leading to a decline of perhaps 10% in koala numbers. Management of this large regional population has significant implications for the national conservation of the species: the continued viability of this population is critically dependent on the retention and management of riverine and residual vegetation communities, and future vegetation-management guidelines should be cognisant of the potential impacts of clearing even small areas of critical habitat. We also highlight eight management implications.

Host-dependent Anopheles flavirostris larval distribution reinforces the risk of malaria near water

Malaria control strategies are more likely to be successful if groups at high risk can be accurately predicted. Given that mosquitoes have an obligate aquatic phase we were interested in determining how vector larval abundance relates to the spatial distribution of human malaria infection. We examined the relationship between malaria parasite prevalence and distance from vector larval habitat, and vector larval abundance and distance from human habitation, in separate studies in rural, low-endemic areas of the Philippines. Parasite prevalence among symptomatic patients was significantly higher among those living in proximity ( less than or equal to 50 m) to potential larval habitats of the major vector, Anopheles flavirostris (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 2.64, P = 0.02 and AOR 3.43, P = 0.04). A larval survey of A. flavirostris revealed a higher density of early and late instars near human habitation (adjusted P < 0.05). The results suggest that larvae are associated with human habitation, thereby reinforcing malaria risk in people living close to larval habitats. This has implications for understanding the interaction between vectors, hosts, and parasites, and the potential for success of localized malaria control measures.

Relationship between homocysteine and cardiorespiratory fitness is sex-dependent

Elevated plasma homocysteine is recognized as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Recently, there have been conflicting reports of the relationship between physical activity and homocysteine. A more objective measure of physical activity is cardiorespiratory fitness; however, its relationship with homocysteine has yet to be investigated. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between cardiorespiratory fitness and plasma homocysteine. Cross-sectional associations between cardiorespiratory fitness (VO(2)max) and plasma homocysteine were examined in 49 men and 11 women. A submaximal bicycle test was used to determine VO(2)max and plasma homocysteine was measured using high performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection. Dietary analysis determined B vitamin intake. There was a significant inverse relationship between plasma homocysteine concentration and VO(2)max in women (r = -0.81, P = 0.003) but not in men (r = -0.09, P = 0.95). There were no significant relationships between plasma homocysteine and age, BMI, body fat, total cholesterol, and LDL cholesterol. In summary, elevated cardiorespiratory fitness is associated with decreased plasma homocysteine concentrations in women. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.