Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An epidemic of violence?: Changing patterns in reported rapes in Victoria

Victoria Police statistics show that, since the late 1980s, there has been a significant increase in reported rapes in that State. One interpretation of this trend is that there has been an increase in the underlying incidence of sexual violence in the community. An alternative explanation is that rape victims have become more willing to report to the police, in response to factors such as improved provision of support services to sexual assault victims, reforms to substantive and procedural law, and changes in police attitudes and procedures. In order to rest these competing interpretations data were collected and analysed on the characteristics of rapes reported to the Victoria Police in the late 1980s/early 1990s. This analysis showed that: (I) most of the additional offences reported in the early 1990s were allegations of rapes committed by family members, spouses and other intimates; and (2) an increasing number of reports related to offences which had been committed at feast one year prior to a report being made to the police. It is argued that these changing patterns are consistent with a significant increase in the reporting rate for rape. More generally, the research reported in this paper highlights the limitations of reported crime statistics as measures of the level of social violence, and points to the need for crime researchers to develop alternative methodologies for measuring and interpreting trends.

Dengue virus binding to human leukocyte cell lines: receptor usage differs between cell types and virus strains

Monocyte macrophages (M phi) are thought to be the principal target cells for the dengue viruses (DV), the cause of dengue fever and hemorrhagic fever. Cell attachment is mediated by the virus envelope (E) protein, but the host-cell receptors remain elusive. Currently, candidate receptor molecules include proteins, Fc receptors, glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) and lipopolysaccharide binding CD14-associated molecules. Here, we show that in addition to M phi, cells of the T- and B-cell lineages, and including cells lacking GAGs, can bind and become infected with DV. The level of virus binding varied widely between cell lines and, notably, between virus strains within a DV serotype. The latter difference may be ascribable to one or more amino acid differences in domain II of the E protein. Heparin had no significant effect on DV binding, while heparinase treatment of cells in all cases increased DV binding, further supporting the contention that GAGs are not required for DV binding and infection of human cells. In contrast to a recent report, we found that lipopolysaccharide (LPS) had either no effect or enhanced DV binding to, and infection of various human leukocyte cell lines, while in all virus-cell combinations, depletion of Ca2+/Mg2+ enhanced DV binding. This argues against involvement of beta (2) integrins in virus-host cell interactions, a conclusion in accord with the demonstration of three virus binding membrane proteins of < 75 kDa. Collectively, the results of this study question the purported exclusive importance of the E protein domain III in DV binding to host cells and point to a far more complex interaction between various target cells and, notably, individual DV strains. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiple impacts of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the aged in rural Uganda

This paper reports research conducted among theaged residents of a rural, Southwestern Ugandanvillage. It documents their knowledge ofHIV/AIDS, their perceptions of their own riskof infection, and the multiple impacts of thecurrent HIV/AIDS epidemic on their lives. Mostolder individuals have a sound understanding ofthe sexual transmission of HIV, and someconsider themselves to be at risk of infectionthrough having multiple sexual partners. Theyattempt to limit their children's exposure toHIV, but many of these children have left thevillage to live in urban areas of relativelyhigh HIV prevalence. The loss of adult childrendeprives the aged of any support these childrenmight have provided as their parents'capabilities declined with advancing age.Female-headed households were more affected inthis way than were male-headed households. TheAIDS epidemic has increased the number ofburials taking place in the village, and theiraccumulated costs, both in time and money, andcreated new hardships for the aged, who alsohave to cope with grief that accompaniescontinuing deaths among their children andtheir contemporaries' children.

Activity of recombinant dengue 2 virus NS3 protease in the presence of a truncated NS2B co-factor, small peptide substrates, and inhibitors

Recombinant forms of the dengue 2 virus NS3 protease linked to a 40-residue co-factor, corresponding to part of NS2B, have been expressed in Escherichia coli and shown to be active against para-nitroanilide substrates comprising the P6-P1 residues of four substrate cleavage sequences. The enzyme is inactive alone or after the addition of a putative 13-residue co-factor peptide but is active when fused to the 40-residue co-factor, by either a cleavable or a noncleavable glycine linker. The NS4B/NS5 cleavage site was processed most readily, with optimal processing conditions being pH 9, I = 10 mm, 1 mm CHAPS, 20% glycerol. A longer 10-residue peptide corresponding to the NS2B/NS3 cleavage site (P6-P4') was a poorer substrate than the hexapeptide (P6-P1) para-nitroanilide substrate under these conditions, suggesting that the prime side substrate residues did not contribute significantly to protease binding. We also report the first inhibitors of a co-factor-complexed, catalytically active flavivirus NS3 protease. Aprotinin was the only standard serine protease inhibitor to be active, whereas a number of peptide substrate analogues were found to be competitive inhibitors at micromolar concentrations.

Detection of dengue viral RNA in Aedes aegypti (Diptera : Culicidae) exposed to sticky lures using reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction

Active surveillance for dengue (DEN) virus infected mosquitoes can be an effective way to predict the risk of dengue infection in a given area. However, doing so may pose logistical problems if mosquitoes must be kept alive or frozen fresh to detect DEN virus. In an attempt to simplify mosquito processing, we evaluated the usefulness of a sticky lure and a seminested reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction assay (RT-PCR) for detecting DEN virus RNA under laboratory conditions using experimentally infected Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquitoes. In the first experiment, 40 male mosquitoes were inoculated with 0.13 mul of a 10(4) pfu/ml DEN-2 stock solution. After a 7-d incubation period, the mosquitoes were applied to the sticky lure and kept at room temperatures of 23-30 degreesC. Following 7,10,14, and 28 d application, 10 mosquitoes each were removed from the lure pooled and assayed for virus. DEN virus nucleic acid was clearly detectable in all pools up to 28 d after death. A second study evaluated sensitivity and specificity using one, two, and five DEN-infected mosquitoes removed after 7, 10, 14, 21 and 30 d application and tested by RT-PCR. All four DEN serotypes were individually inoculated in mosquitoes and evaluated using the same procedures as experiment 1. The four serotypes were detectable in as few as one mosquito 30 d after application to the lure with no evidence of cross-reactivity. The combination of sticky lures and RT-PCR show promise for mosquito and dengue virus surveillance and warrant further evaluation.

High circulating levels of the dengue virus nonstructural protein NS1 early in dengue illness correlate with the development of dengue hemorrhagic fever

Infection with any 1 of 4 dengue viruses produces a spectrum of clinical illness ranging from a mild undifferentiated febrile illness to dengue fever (DF) to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), a potentially life-threatening disease. The morbidity and mortality of DHF can be reduced by early hospitalization and careful supportive care. To determine its usefulness as a predictor of DHF, plasma levels of the secreted dengue virus nonstructural protein NS1 (sNS1) were measured daily in 32 children with dengue-2 virus infections participating in a prospective, hospital-based study. Free sNS1 levels in plasma correlated with viremia levels and were higher in patients with DHF than in those with DF. An elevated free sNS1 level (greater than or equal to600 ng/mL) within 72 h of illness onset identified patients at risk for developing DHF.

Catalytically active Dengue virus NS3 protease forms aggregates that are separable by size exclusion chromatography

An active form of the Dengue virus protease NS3 (CF40.Gly.NS3pro) was expressed in Escherichia coli. This construct consists of a critical 40 amino acid cofactor domain from NS2B fused to the N-terminal 184 amino acid protease domain of NS3 via a flexible, covalent linker (Gly(4)SerGly(4)). The recombinantly produced protein is soluble and has a hexa-histidine tag engineered at the N-terminus for ease of purification using metal affinity chromatography. However, the presence of lower molecular weight impurities after affinity chromatography indicated the need for additional purification steps. The consistent appearance of these impurities suggested that they may be the products of proteolysis and/or auto-proteolysis. The latter possibility was subsequently excluded by the observation of the same impurities in a purified, catalytically inactive form of the recombinant protease (CF40.Gly.NS3pro.SA). Further analysis indicated that these impurities may represent premature translation termination products. Regardless of their origin, they were shown to form various sized aggregates with full-length CF40.Gly.NS3pro that can be separated by size exclusion chromatography, yielding fractions of active protease of sufficient purity for crystallisation trials. The ultimate goal of these studies is to obtain a crystal structure of a catalytically active form of the Dengue virus NS3 protease for structure-based drug design. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Production of the baculovirus-expressed dengue virus glycoprotein NS1 can be improved dramatically with optimised regimes for fed-batch cultures and the addition of the insect moulting hormone, 20-Hydroxyecdysone

A perennial problem in recombinant protein expression is low yield of the product of interest. A strategy which has been shown to increase the production of baculovirus-expressed proteins is to utilise fed-batch cultures. One disadvantage of this approach is the time-consuming task of optimising the feeding strategy. Previously, a statistical optimisation routine was applied to develop a feeding strategy that increased the yield of beta-Galactosidase (beta-Gal) by 2.4-fold (Biotechnol. Bioeng, 59 (1998) 178). This involves the single addition of nutrient concentrates (amino acids, lipids. glucose and yeastolate ultrafiltrate) into Sf9 cell cultures grown in SF900II medium. In this study, it is demonstrated that this optimised fed-batch strategy developed for a high-yielding intracellular product beta-Gal could be applied successfully to a relatively low-yielding glycosylated and secreted product such as the dengue virus glycoprotein NS1. Optimised batch infections yielded 4 mug/ml of NS1 at a peak cell density of 4.2 x 10(6) cells/ml. In contrast. optimised fed-batch infections exhibited a 3-fold improvement in yield, with 12 mug ml of NS1 produced at a peak cell density of 11.3 x 10(6) cells/ml. No further improvements in yield were recorded when the feed volumes were doubled and the peak cell density was increased to 23 x 10(6) cells/ml, unless the cultures were stimulated by the addition of 4 mug/ml of 20-Hydroxyecdysone (an insect moulting hormone). In this case, the NS1 yield was increased to 20 mug/ml. which was nearly 5-fold higher than optimised batch cultures. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Chloroquine or sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for the treatment of uncomplicated, Plasmodium falciparum malaria during an epidemic in Central Java, Indonesia

A recent malaria epidemic in the Menoreh Hills of Central Java has increased concern about the re-emergence of endemic malaria on Java, which threatens the island's 120 million residents. A 28-day, in-vivo test of the efficacy of treatment of malaria with antimalarial drugs was conducted among 16 7 villagers in the Menoreh Hills. The treatments investigated, chloroquine (CQ) and sulfadoxine pyrimethamine (SP), constitute, respectively, the first- and second-line treatments for uncomplicated malaria in Indonesia. The prevalence of malaria among 1389 residents screened prior to enrollment was 33%. Treatment outcomes were assessed by microscopical diagnoses, PCR-based confirmation of the diagnoses, measurement of the whole-blood concentrations of CQ and desethylchloroquine (DCQ), and identification of the Plasmodium falciparum genotypes. The 28-day cumulative incidences of therapeutic failure for CQ and SP were, respectively, 47% (N = 36) and 22% (N = 50) in the treatment of P. falciparum, and 18% (N = 77) and 67% (N = 6) in the treatment of P. vivax. Chloroquine was thus an ineffective therapy for P. falciparum malaria, and the presence of CQ-resistant P. vivax and SP-resistant P. falciparum will further compromise efforts to control resurgent malaria on Java.