Assisting decision-making in Queensland barley production through chance constrained programming

A chance constrained programming model is developed to assist Queensland barley growers make varietal and agronomic decisions in the face of changing product demands and volatile production conditions. Unsuitable or overlooked in many risk programming applications, the chance constrained programming approach nonetheless aptly captures the single-stage decision problem faced by barley growers of whether to plant lower-yielding but potentially higher-priced malting varieties, given a particular expectation of meeting malting grade standards. Different expectations greatly affect the optimal mix of malting and feed barley activities. The analysis highlights the suitability of chance constrained programming to this specific class of farm decision problem.

Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Occupational therapists' decision making in three therapy settings in Australia

Can a work setting with its organizational, cultural, and practical considerations influence the way occupational therapists make decisions regarding client interventions? There is currently a paucity of evidence available to answer this question. This study aimed to investigate the influence of work setting on therapists’ clinical reasoning in the management of clients with cerebral palsy and upper limb hypertonicity. Specifically the study aimed to examine therapists’ objective and stated policies, and their intervention decisions using Social Judgement Theory methodology. Participants were eighteen occupational therapists with more than five years experience with clients with cerebral palsy who were asked to make intervention decisions for clients represented by 90 case vignettes. They worked in three settings, hospitals (5), schools (6), and community (6). The results indicated that therapy settings did influence therapists’ decisions about intervention choices but not their objective and subjective policy decisions.

End-of-life decision making in Europe and Australia - A physician survey

Background: The frequencies with which physicians make different medical end-of-life decisions (ELDs) may differ between countries, but comparison between countries has been difficult owing to the use of dissimilar research methods. Methods: A written questionnaire was sent to a random sample of physicians from 9 specialties in 6 European countries and Australia to investigate possible differences in the frequencies of physicians' willingness to perform ELDs and to identify predicting factors. Response rates ranged from 39% to 68% (N= 10 139). Using hypothetical cases, physicians were asked whether they would ( probably) make each of 4 ELDs. Results: In all the countries, 75% to 99% of physicians would withhold chemotherapy or intensify symptom treatment at the request of a patient with terminal cancer. In most cases, more than half of all physicians would also be willing to deeply sedate such a patient until death. However, there was generally less willingness to administer drugs with the explicit intention of hastening death at the request of the patient. The most important predictor of ELDs was a request from a patient with decisional capacity (odds ratio, 2.1-140.0). Shorter patient life expectancy and uncontrollable pain were weaker predictors but were more stable across countries and across the various ELDs (odds ratios, 1.1-2.4 and 0.9-2.4, respectively). Conclusion: Cultural and legal factors seem to influence the frequencies of different ELDs and the strength of their determinants across countries, but they do not change the essence of decision making.

Intuition: Myth or a Decision-making Tool?

Faced with today’s ill-structured business environment of fast-paced change and rising uncertainty, organizations have been searching for management tools that will perform satisfactorily under such ambiguous conditions. In the arena of managerial decision making, one of the approaches being assessed is the use of intuition. Based on our definition of intuition as a non-sequential information-processing mode, which comprises both cognitive and affective elements and results in direct knowing without any use of conscious reasoning, we develop a testable model of integrated analytical and intuitive decision making and propose ways to measure the use of intuition.

Tailored advice on exercise - Does it make a difference?

Objectives: A controlled trial to compare the effectiveness of verbal advice from a family physician (FP) combined with either standard or tailored written information on physical activity in increasing the levels of physical activity in sedentary patients. Design: Sedentary patients (n = 763) were recruited through ten family practices and allocated to a control group or one of two intervention groups, Brief advice on physical activity was given by the FP during the consultation and either a standard or tailored pamphlet was mailed to the home address of patients assigned to the intervention groups within two days of their visit to the FP. Results: The response to follow-up, via a postal survey at one, six, and twelve months after the index consultation was 70%, 60%, and 57%, respectively. Treating all nonresponders as sedentary, the results revealed that although more tailored subjects reported some physical activity at each follow-up compared with the standard group, these differences were not significant, Furthermore, there was no significant difference in movement across the stages of readiness to exercise at follow-up between subjects in the tailored group who received material targeting their current stage (precontemplation or contemplation) and the standard group who received generic material that addressed both stages. Conclusion: These findings do not concur with the results from previous research in the areas of nutrition and smoking cessation where additional benefits were seen with a tailored intervention. Future research on the application of the principles of tailoring to the promotion of physical activity should focus on identifying which, if any, physical, social, psychological or environmental variables should be addressed to produce improved outcomes over and above the effects of well designed generic materials. (C) 1999 American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

Australian import managers' purchasing decision behaviour: An empirical study

Reports a pilot study of the relative importance of import decision variables as rated by Australian managers. A systematic sample qi 104 Australian managers representing different companies participated in the study. Australian importers rated product quality as the most important variable when importing products from overseas followed by long-term suppliers' dependability, product style/feature, price, and timely delivery. Australian managers who import consumer products find the domestic import duties and tariffs to be more important than did those who import industrial products. Larger volume importers regard the product brand name reputation to be more important than did those who import smaller volumes.

Volunteer decision making by older people: A test of a revised theory of planned behavior

This study was designed to test the utility of a revised theory of planned behavior in the prediction of intentions to volunteer among older people. Such a perspective allowed for the consideration of a broader range of social and contextual factors than has been examined in previous research on volunteer decision making among older people. The article reports the findings from a study that investigated volunteer intentions and behavior in a random sample of older people aged 65 to 74 years living in an Australian capital city. Results showed that, as predicted by the revised theory of planned behavior, intention to volunteer predicted subsequent reported volunteer behavior. Intention was, in turn, predicted by social norms (both subjective and behavioral), perceived behavioral control, and moral obligation, with the effect of attitude being mediated through moral obligation.

Screening for leprosy in immigrants: A decision analysis model

Almost all leprosy cases reported in industrialized countries occur amongst immigrants or refugees from developing countries where leprosy continues to be an important health issue. Screening for leprosy is an important question for governments in countries with immigration and refugee programmes. A decision analysis framework is used to evaluate leprosy screening. The analysis uses a set of criteria and parameters regarding leprosy screening, and available data to estimate the number of cases which would be detected by a leprosy screening programme of immigrants from countries with different leprosy prevalences, compared with a policy of waiting for immigrants who develop symptomatic clinical diseases to present for health care. In a cohort of 100,000 immigrants from high leprosy prevalence regions (3.6/10,000), screening would detect 32 of the 42 cases which would arise in the destination country over the 14 years after migration; from medium prevalence areas (0.7/10,000) 6.3 of the total 8.1 cases would be detected, and from low prevalence regions (0.2/10,600) 1.8 of 2.3 cases. Using Australian data, the migrant mix would produce 74 leprosy cases from 10 years intake; screening would detect 54, and 19 would be diagnosed subsequently after migration. Screening would only produce significant case-yield amongst immigrants from regions or social groups with high leprosy prevalence. Since the number of immigrants to Australia from countries of higher endemnicity is not large routine leprosy screening would have a small impact on case incidence.

Auditory lexical decisions in children with specific language impairment

This study examined spoken-word recognition in children with specific language impairment (SLI) and normally developing children matched separately for age and receptive language ability. Accuracy and reaction times on an auditory lexical decision task were compared. Children with SLI were less accurate than both control groups. Two subgroups of children with SLI, distinguished by performance accuracy only, were identified. One group performed within normal limits, while a second group was significantly less accurate. Children with SLI were not slower than the age-matched controls or language-matched controls. Further, the time taken to detect an auditory signal, make a decision, or initiate a verbal response did not account for the differences between the groups. The findings are interpreted as evidence for language-appropriate processing skills acting upon imprecise or underspecified stored representations.

Australia-wide predictions of soil properties using decision trees

This paper describes the construction of Australia-wide soil property predictions from a compiled national soils point database. Those properties considered include pH, organic carbon, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, thickness. texture, and clay content. Many of these soil properties are used directly in environmental process modelling including global climate change models. Models are constructed at the 250-m resolution using decision trees. These relate the soil property to the environment through a suite of environmental predictors at the locations where measurements are observed. These models are then used to extend predictions to the continental extent by applying the rules derived to the exhaustively available environmental predictors. The methodology and performance is described in detail for pH and summarized for other properties. Environmental variables are found to be important predictors, even at the 250-m resolution at which they are available here as they can describe the broad changes in soil property.