Predicting population dynamics of weed biological control agents: science or gazing into crystal balls?

Various factors can influence the population dynamics of phytophages post introduction, of which climate is fundamental. Here we present an approach, using a mechanistic modelling package (CLIMEX), that at least enables one to make predictions of likely dynamics based on climate alone. As biological control programs will have minimal funding for basic work (particularly on population dynamics), we show how predictions can be made using a species geographical distribution, relative abundance across its range, seasonal phenology and laboratory rearing data. Many of these data sets are more likely to be available than long-term population data, and some can be incorporated into the exploratory phase of a biocontrol program. Although models are likely to be more robust the more information is available, useful models can be developed using information on species distribution alone. The fitted model estimates a species average response to climate, and can be used to predict likely geographical distribution if introduced, where the agent is likely to be more abundant (i.e. good locations) and more importantly for interpretation of release success, the likely variation in abundance over time due to intra- and inter-year climate variability. The latter will be useful in predicting both the seasonal and long-term impacts of the potential biocontrol agent on the target weed. We believe this tool may not only aid in the agent selection process, but also in the design of release strategies, and for interpretation of post-introduction dynamics and impacts. More importantly we are making testable predictions. If biological control is to become more of a science making and testing such hypothesis will be a key component.

Factors supporting the non-persistence of fruit fly populations in South Australia

For purposes of interstate and international fruit trade, it is necessary to demonstrate that in areas in which fruit fly species have not previously established permanent populations, but which are subject to introductions of fruit flies from outside the area, the introduced population once detected, has not become established. In this paper, we apply methodology suggested mainly by Carey (1991, 1995) to introductions of Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly), Ceratitis capitata Weid., and Queensland fruit fly (QFF) Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt (Diptera: Tephritidae) to South Australia, a state in which these species do not occur naturally and in which introductions, once detected, are actively treated. By analysing historical data associated with fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia, we demonstrate that: (i) fruit flies occur seasonally, as would occur in established populations, except there is no evidence of the critical spring generation of either species; (ii) there is no evidence of increasing frequency of outbreaks, trapped flies or larval occurrences over 29 years; (iii) there is no evidence of decreasing time between catches of adult flies as the years progress; (iv) there is no decrease in the mean number of years between outbreaks in the same locations; (v) there is no statistically significant recurrence of outbreaks in the same locations in successive years; (vi) there is no evidence of spread of outbreaks outwards from a central location; (vii) the likelihood of outbreaks in a city or town is related to the size of the human population; (viii) introduction pathways by road from Western Australia (for Medfly) and eastern Australia (for QFF) are shown to exist and to illegally or accidentally carry considerable amounts of fruit into South Australia; and (ix) there was no association between the numbers of either Queensland fruit fly or Medfly and the spatial pattern of either loquat or cumquat trees as sources of larval food in spring. This analysis supports the hypothesis that most fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia have been the result of separate introductions of infested fruit by vehicular traffic and that most of the resultant fly outbreaks were detected and died out within a few weeks of the application of eradication procedures. An alternative hypothesis, that populations of fruit flies are established in South Australia at below detectable levels, is impossible to disprove with conventional technology, but the likelihood of it being true is minimised by our analysis. Both hypotheses could be tested soon with newly developed genetic techniques.

Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Biology and phenology of the eriophyid mite, Floracarus perrepae, on its native host in Australia, Old World climbing fern, Lygodium microphyllum

The biology and phenology of the eriophyid mite, Floracarus perrepae Knihinicki and Boczek,a potential biological control agent of Lygodium microphyllum (Cav.) R. Br., was studied in its native range - Queensland, Australia. F. perrepae forms leaf roll galls oil tile subpinnae of L. microphyllum. It has a simple biology, with females and males produced throughout the year. Tile Population was female biased at 10.5 to 1. The immature development time was 8.9 ± 0.1 and 7.0 ± 0.1 days; adult longevity was 30.6 ± 1.6 and 19.4 ± 1.2 days and mean fecundity per female was 54.5 ± 3.2 and 38.5 ± 1.6 eggs at 21 and 26 ° C, all respectively. Field studies showed that tile mite was active year round, with populations peaking when temperatures were cool and soil moisture levels were highest. Two species of predatory mites, Tarsonemus sp. and a species of Tydeidae, along with the pathogen Hirsutella thompsonii, had significant effects oil all life stages of F. perrepae. Despite high levels of predators and the pathogen, F. perrepae caused consistent damage to L. microphyllum at all the field sites over the entire 2 years of the study.

Management of parthenium weed through competitive displacement with beneficialplants

No Abstract

Spiroacetal biosynthesis: ()-1,7-dioxaspiro[5.5]undecane in Bactrocera cacuminata and Bactrocera oleae (olive fruit fly)

[GRAPHICS] A biosynthetic scheme rationalizing the formation of (+/-)-1,7-dioxaspiro[5.5]undecane (5) in the fruit fly species Bactrocera cacuminata and Bactrocera oleae (olive fruit fly) is presented. Incorporation studies with deuterium-labeled keto aldehyde (10), 1,5-nonanediol (11), and 1,5,9-nonanetriol (12), and our previous finding that both oxygen atoms of 5 originate from dioxygen, are strongly evidentiary. The racemic condition of the natural spiroacetal 5 is accounted for, and inter alia, it is demonstrated that dihydropyran (18) is not an important intermediate en route to 5.

A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

Geopolymeric adsorbents from fly ash for dye removal from aqueous solution

Adsorbents from coal fly ash treated by a solid-state fusion method using NaOH were prepared. It was found that amorphous aluminosilicate, geopolymers would be formed. These fly ash-derived inorganic polymers were assessed as potential adsorbents for removal of some basic dyes, methylene blue and crystal violet, from aqueous solution. It was found that the adsorption capacity of the synthesised adsorbents depends on the preparation conditions such as NaOH:fly-ash ratio and fusion temperature with the optimal conditions being at 121 weight ratio of Na:fly-ash at 250-350 degrees C. The synthesised materials exhibit much higher adsorption capacity than fly ash itself and natural zeolite. The adsorption isotherm can be fitted by Langmuir and Freundlich models while the two-site Langmuir model producing the best results. It was also found that the fly ash derived geopolymeric adsorbents show higher adsorption capacity for crystal violet than methylene blue and the adsorption temperature influences the adsorption capacity. Kinetic studies show that the adsorption process follows the pseudo second-order kinetics. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Is the distribution of Fiji leaf gall in Australian sugarcane explained by variation in the vector Perkinsiella saccharicida?

Fiji leaf gall (FLG) is an important virally induced disease in Australian sugarcane. It is confined to southern canegrowing areas, despite its vector, the delphacid planthopper Perkinsiella saccharicida, occurring in all canegrowing areas of Queensland and New South Wales. This disparity between distributions could be a result of successful containment of the disease through quarantine and/or geographical barriers, or because northern Queensland populations of Perkinsiella may be poorer vectors of the disease. These hypotheses were first tested by investigating variation in the ITS2 region of the rDNA fragment among eastern Australian and overseas populations of Perkinsiella. The ITS2 sequences of the Western Australian P. thompsoni and the Fijian P. vitiensis were distinguishable from those of P. saccharicida and there was no significant variation among the 26P. saccharicida populations. Reciprocal crosses of a northern Queensland and a southern Queensland population of P. saccharicida were fertile, so they may well be conspecific. Single vector transmission experiments showed that a population of P. saccharicida from northern Queensland had a higher vector competency than either of two southern Queensland populations. The frequency of virus acquisition in the vector populations was demonstrated to be important in the vector competency of the planthopper. The proportion of infected vectors that transmitted the virus to plants was not significantly different among the populations tested. This study shows that the absence of FLG from northern Queensland is not due to a lack of vector competency of the northern population of P. saccharicida.

Microsatellite markers for the pest fruit fly, Bactrocera papayae (Diptera : Tephritidae) and other Bactrocera species

The dorsalis complex contains some of the most economically important fruit fly pests of the Asia-Pacific regions, including Bactrocera dorsalis, Bactrocera papayae and Bactrocera carambolae. These species are morphologically indistinct and genetically very similar. We describe the development of 12 microsatellite markers isolated from a representative of the dorsalis complex, B. papayae. We show the potential utility of the B. papayae microsatellites and a set of microsatellites isolated from Bactrocera tryoni as population and species markers for the dorsalis complex.

A diverse suite of spiroacetals, including a novel branched representative, is released by female Bactrocera tryoni (Queensland fruit fly)

A remarkably diverse suite of spiroacetals including a novel member of the rare, branched chain class has been identified in the glandular secretions of Bactrocera tryoni, the most destructive horticultural pest in Australia.

Parthenium weed: a potential major weed for agro-ecosystems in Pakistan

Parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) is a new and potentially major weed in Pakistan. This weed, originating from central America, is now a major weed in many regions of the world including Eastern Africa, India, parts of South East Asia and Australia. Presumably its recent arrival in Pakistan has been due to its movement from India, but this has yet to be established. In Australia it has been present for about 50 years, in which time it has spread from isolated infestations to establish core populations in central Queensland with scattered and isolated plants occurring south into New South Wales and north-west into the Northern Territory. Its spread in Pakistan is likely to be much more rapid, but lessons learnt in Australia will be of great value for weed managers in Pakistan. This annual herb has the potential to spread to all medium rainfall rangeland, dairy and summer cropping areas in Pakistan. In Australia its main effect is upon livestock production, but it is also causing health concerns in regional communities. However, in India it has also had a significant impact in cropping systems. To help coordinate actions on its management in Australia, a National Weeds Program has created a Parthenium Weed Management Group (PWMG) and under this group a Parthenium Weed Research Group (PWRG) has been formed. Funding coming from this national program and other sources has supported the PWRG to undertake a collaborative and technology exchange research program in two main areas: 1) biology and ecology and 2) management; while the PWMG has focused on community awareness and the production of various extension and management packages. Research in the area of biology and ecology has included studies on the evaluation of competitive plants to displace parthenium weed, the use of process-based simulation models to monitor and predict future spread and abundance under present and future climate conditions, the effect of the weed on human health and the ecology of its seed bank. Management research has focussed on the development of biological control approaches using plant-feeding insects and pathogens. The effectiveness of biological control is also being monitored through long term studies on seed bank size and dynamics. The use of fire as another potential management tool is also being evaluated. In addition to this important research, an effort has also been made to spread the most important findings and management outcomes to the wider community through an extension and education program driven by the PWMG. These developments within Australia, in parthenium weed management, will be of great help to P

Stochastic modelling of the invasion process of nematodes in fly larvae

Stochastic models based on Markov birth processes are constructed to describe the process of invasion of a fly larva by entomopathogenic nematodes. Various forms for the birth (invasion) rates are proposed. These models are then fitted to data sets describing the observed numbers of nematodes that have invaded a fly larval after a fixed period of time. Non-linear birthrates are required to achieve good fits to these data, with their precise form leading to different patterns of invasion being identified for three populations of nematodes considered. One of these (Nemasys) showed the greatest propensity for invasion. This form of modelling may be useful more generally for analysing data that show variation which is different from that expected from a binomial distribution.