Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Both CD4(+) and CD8(+) lymphocytes reduce the severity of tissue lesions in murine systemic candidiasis, and CD4(+) cells also demonstrate strain-specific immunopathological effects

The role of T lymphocytes in host responses to sublethal systemic infection with Candida albicans was evaluated by mAb depletion of CD4(+) and CD8(+) cells from BALB/c and CBA/CaH mice, which develop mild and severe tissue damage, respectively. Depletion of CD4(+) lymphocytes from BALB/c mice markedly increased tissue damage, but did not alter the course of infection. In CBA/CaH mice, depletion of CD4+ cells abrogated tissue destruction in both brain and kidney at day 4 after infection, and significantly decreased fungal colonization in the brain. However, the severity of tissue lesions increased relative to controls from day 8 onwards. A small increase in tissue damage was evident in both mouse strains after depletion of CD8(+) cells. There were no major differences between days 4 end 8 after infection in cDNA cytokine profiles of CD4(+) lymphocytes from either BALB/c or CBA/CaH mice. After passive transfer into infected syngeneic recipients, spleen cells from infected CBA/CaH mice markedly increased tissue damage when compared to controls, and also caused a significant increase in fungal colonization in the brain. A similar transfer in BALB/c mice increased the number of inflammatory cells in and around the lesions, but had no effect on the fungal burden in brain and kidney. The data demonstrate that both CD4(+) and CD8(+) lymphocytes contribute to the reduction of tissue damage after systemic infection with C. albicans, and that the development and expression of CD4(+) lymphocyte effector function is influenced by the genetic background of the mouse.

Trends in the incidence, severity, and short-term outcome of stroke in Perth, Western Australia

Background and Purpose-This report describes trends in the key indices of cerebrovascular disease over 6 years from the end of the 1980s in a geographically defined segment of the city of Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Identical methods were used to find and assess all cases of suspected stroke in a population of approximately 134 000 residents in a triangular area of the northern suburbs of Perth. Case fatality was measured as vital status at 28 days after the onset of symptoms. Data for first-ever strokes and for all strokes for equivalent periods of 12 months in 1989-1990 and 1995-1996 were compared by age-standardized rates and proportions and Poisson regression. Results-There were 355 strokes in 328 patients and 251 first-ever strokes (71%) for 1989-1990 and 290 events in 281 patients and 213 first-ever strokes (73%) for 1995-1996. In Poisson models including age and period, overall trends in the incidence of both first-ever strokes (rate ratio = 0.75; 95% confidence limits, 0.63, 0.90) and all strokes (rate ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence limits, 0.62, 0.85) were obviously significant, but only the changes in men were independently significant. Case fatality did not change, and the balance between hemorrhagic and occlusive strokes in 1995-1996 was almost indistinguishable from that observed in 1989-1990. Conclusions-Our results, which are the only longitudinal population-based data available for Australia for key indices of stroke, suggest that it is a change in the frequency of stroke, rather than its outcome, that is chiefly responsible nationally for the fall in mortality from cerebrovascular disease.

Contingent or structural crisis in British agriculture?

The British agricultural sector is either already in or rapidly approaching some sort of crisis. Two features are particularly significant in the political response to the current situation. First, there is an increasingly neoliberal approach to agricultural policy. Sec end, agricultural policy per se is being subsumed with wider rural policies. In this paper we question the rationality of both these trends, both theoretically through 'new wave regulation theory' and by relating the British situation to the recent experiences of the agricultural sectors in Australia and New Zealand.

Severity of hypertension in familial hyperaldosteronism type I: Relationship to gender and degree of biochemical disturbance

In familial hyperaldosteronism type I (FH-I), inheritance of a hybrid 11 beta-hydroxylase/aldosterone synthase gene causes ACTH-regulated aldosterone overproduction. In an attempt to understand the marked variability in hypertension severity in FH-I, we compared clinical and biochemical characteristics of 9 affected individuals with mild hypertension (normotensive or onset of hypertension after 15 yr, blood pressure never >160/100 mm Hg, less than or equal to 1 medication required to control hypertension, no history of stroke, age >18 yr when studied) with those of 17 subjects with severe hypertension (onset before 15 yr, or systolic blood pressure >180 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure >120 mm Hg at least once, or greater than or equal to 2 medications, or history of stroke). Severe hypertension was more frequent in males (11 of 13 males vs. 6 of 13 females; P

Cognitive deficits, length of illness and symptom severity in schizophrenia

Background Research using neuropsychological testing has demonstrated that patients with schizophrenia show deficits in multiple neurocognitive domains. The aim of this study is to identify cognitive deficits that correlate with length of illness and symptom severity. Method Twenty clinically stable outpatients with chronic schizophrenia (18M : 2F) and 14 healthy controls (13M : 1F), matched on age, gender and parental education, were administered a neuropsychological battery consisting of the Hayling Sentence Completion Test (HSCT), WMS-III Verbal Paired Associates & Letter Number Sequencing, Modified Card Sort Test (MCST), Pyramids & Palm Trees Test, National Adult Reading Test (NART), Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT), and WAIS-III. Severity of symptoms was rated with the Structured Clinical Interview – Positive and Negative Syndromes Scale (SCI-PANSS). Results In comparison to controls, patients showed significant deficits on all of the neuropsychological tasks except for the COWAT. MCST total categories, NART, Verbal IQ and arithmetic, similarities & digit symbol of the WAIS-III had the largest effect size between the groups. The longer the illness duration, the poorer the performance on WAISIII block design and the lower the performance IQ score. The poorer the performance on WMS-III letter number sequencing, the greater the positive symptoms, negative symptoms and general psychopathology. Conclusion Compared to controls, patients showed large effect sizes on measures of executive functioning, intelligence, working memory, verbal comprehension and speed of processing. The findings suggest that impairment in executive functioning and performance IQ is associated with length of illness, while impairment in working memory is associated with heightened symptom severity.

Evidence that two independent host genes influence the severity of tissue damage and susceptibility to acute pyelonephritis in murine systemic candidiasis

Tissue damage in the kidney and brain after systemic infection with Candida albicans was examined in recombinant inbred strains (AKXL) derived from AKR and C57/L progenitors. Nine of the 15 strains showed mild (C57/L-like) tissue damage. Of the remainder, two strains developed lesions comparable to the AKR parental strain, whereas four exhibited a much move severe pattern of tissue damage. This was characterized by pronounced mycelial growth in the brain, and gross oedema of the kidney, with extensive fungal colonization and marked tissue destruction. The presence of the null allele of the haemolytic complement gene (Hc) may be necessary but not sufficient, for the expression of the very severe lesions. The results were interpreted as reflecting the actions of two independent genes, which have been designated Carg1 and Carg2 (Candida albicans resistance genes 1 and 2). (C) 1997 Academic Press Limited.