On modifications to the long-term survival mixture model in the presence of competing risks

A mixture model for long-term survivors has been adopted in various fields such as biostatistics and criminology where some individuals may never experience the type of failure under study. It is directly applicable in situations where the only information available from follow-up on individuals who will never experience this type of failure is in the form of censored observations. In this paper, we consider a modification to the model so that it still applies in the case where during the follow-up period it becomes known that an individual will never experience failure from the cause of interest. Unless a model allows for this additional information, a consistent survival analysis will not be obtained. A partial maximum likelihood (ML) approach is proposed that preserves the simplicity of the long-term survival mixture model and provides consistent estimators of the quantities of interest. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the efficiency of the partial ML approach relative to the full ML approach for survival in the presence of competing risks.

Property crime and income generation by heroin users

This paper provides a detailed analysis of patterns of income generation among 202 active heroin users in South West Sydney. We explore both sources of income and the relative contribution of different types of income generating activities, including drug sales and related activities, property crime, prostitution, legitimate income and avoided expenditures. Despite claims that heroin use leads inevitably to property crime, drug market activities accounted for a greater proportion of drug user income in this sample. Results indicate that law enforcement crackdowns that reduce opportunities for generating income from the drug market may increase property crime by heroin users.

Women victims of assault: Age differences in victim-aggressor relationship and location

This article presents the findings from a secondary analysis of the 1991 Queensland Crime Victim Survey. Although now more than 10 years old, this survey still has validity as it remains the largest of its kind conducted in Queensland, and it is a rich source of information about the experiences of victims of violence. The study investigated how the experiences of younger female assault victims differ from older female victims in terms of their relationship with their aggressor and the assault location. The following factors were examined: whether or not the assault occurred (a) at the hands of a partner or former partner, (b) in a private dwelling, (c) in a public place, and (d) in a leisure venue away from home. Results pointed to important differences between younger and older women in terms of their experiences of violence. Teenage women reported significantly more assaults in public places compared with older women, and were less likely to be assaulted in their own dwelling. Also, trends in the data suggested that compared to older women, teenage women were more likely to be assaulted in leisure venues away from home, and were less likely to be assaulted by partners or former partners. Considering that young women are at a much higher risk than older women of being assaulted, consideration of these age differences may be helpful in the design of violence prevention strategies. In particular, more attention should be paid to the public place prevention of violence against young women.

The role of legal coercion in the treatment of offenders with alcohol and heroin problems

This article discusses the ethical justification for and reviews the American evidence on the effectiveness of; treatment for alcohol and heroin dependence that is provided under legal coercion to offenders whose alcohol and drug dependence has contributed to the commission of the offence with which they have been charged or convicted. The article focuses on legally coerced treatment for drink-driving offenders and heroin-dependent property offenders. it outlines the various arguments that have been made for providing such treatment under legal coercion, namely. the over-representation of alcohol and drug dependent persons in prison populations; the contributory causal role of alcohol and other drug problems in the offences that lead to their imprisonment; the high rates of relapse to drug use and criminal involvement after incarceration; the desirability of keeping injecting heroin users out of prisons as a way of reducing the transmission of infectious diseases such as HIV and hepatitis; and the putatively greater cost-effectiveness of treatment compared with incarceration. The ethical objections to legally coerced drug treatment are briefly discussed before the evidence on the effectiveness of legally coerced treatment for alcohol and other drug dependence is reviewed. The evidence, which is primarily from the USA, gives qualified support for some forms of legally coerced drug treatment provided that these programs are well resourced, carefully implemented, and their performance is monitored to ensure that they provide a humane and effective alternative to imprisonment. Expectations about what these programs can achieve also need to be realistic.

An empirical framework for studying desistance as a process

Recent reviews of the desistance literature have advocated studying desistance as a process, yet current empirical methods continue to measure desistance as a discrete state. In this paper, we propose a framework for empirical research that recognizes desistance as a developmental process. This approach focuses on changes in the offending rare rather than on offending itself We describe a statistical model to implement this approach and provide an empirical example. We conclude with several suggestions for future research endeavors that arise from our conceptualization of desistance.