Selection bias in gene extraction on the basis of microarray gene-expression data

In the context of cancer diagnosis and treatment, we consider the problem of constructing an accurate prediction rule on the basis of a relatively small number of tumor tissue samples of known type containing the expression data on very many (possibly thousands) genes. Recently, results have been presented in the literature suggesting that it is possible to construct a prediction rule from only a few genes such that it has a negligible prediction error rate. However, in these results the test error or the leave-one-out cross-validated error is calculated without allowance for the selection bias. There is no allowance because the rule is either tested on tissue samples that were used in the first instance to select the genes being used in the rule or because the cross-validation of the rule is not external to the selection process; that is, gene selection is not performed in training the rule at each stage of the cross-validation process. We describe how in practice the selection bias can be assessed and corrected for by either performing a cross-validation or applying the bootstrap external to the selection process. We recommend using 10-fold rather than leave-one-out cross-validation, and concerning the bootstrap, we suggest using the so-called. 632+ bootstrap error estimate designed to handle overfitted prediction rules. Using two published data sets, we demonstrate that when correction is made for the selection bias, the cross-validated error is no longer zero for a subset of only a few genes.

Approach to designing rotating drum bioreactors for solid-state fermentation on the basis of dimensionless design factors

The development of large-scale solid-stale fermentation (SSF) processes is hampered by the lack of simple tools for the design of SSF bioreactors. The use of semifundamental mathematical models to design and operate SSF bioreactors can be complex. In this work, dimensionless design factors are used to predict the effects of scale and of operational variables on the performance of rotating drum bioreactors. The dimensionless design factor (DDF) is a ratio of the rate of heat generation to the rate of heat removal at the time of peak heat production. It can be used to predict maximum temperatures reached within the substrate bed for given operational variables. Alternatively, given the maximum temperature that can be tolerated during the fermentation, it can be used to explore the combinations of operating variables that prevent that temperature from being exceeded. Comparison of the predictions of the DDF approach with literature data for operation of rotating drums suggests that the DDF is a useful tool. The DDF approach was used to explore the consequences of three scale-up strategies on the required air flow rates and maximum temperatures achieved in the substrate bed as the bioreactor size was increased on the basis of geometric similarity. The first of these strategies was to maintain the superficial flow rate of the process air through the drum constant. The second was to maintain the ratio of volumes of air per volume of bioreactor constant. The third strategy was to adjust the air flow rate with increase in scale in such a manner as to maintain constant the maximum temperature attained in the substrate bed during the fermentation. (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Investment prioritization based on broadscale spatial budgeting to meet downstream targets for suspended sediment loads

On the basis of a spatially distributed sediment budget across a large basin, costs of achieving certain sediment reduction targets in rivers were estimated. A range of investment prioritization scenarios were tested to identify the most cost-effective strategy to control suspended sediment loads. The scenarios were based on successively introducing more information from the sediment budget. The relationship between spatial heterogeneity of contributing sediment sources on cost effectiveness of prioritization was investigated. Cost effectiveness was shown to increase with sequential introduction of sediment budget terms. The solution which most decreased cost was achieved by including spatial information linking sediment sources to the downstream target location. This solution produced cost curves similar to those derived using a genetic algorithm formulation. Appropriate investment prioritization can offer large cost savings because the magnitude of the costs can vary by several times depending on what type of erosion source or sediment delivery mechanism is targeted. Target settings which only consider the erosion source rates can potentially result in spending more money than random management intervention for achieving downstream targets. Coherent spatial patterns of contributing sediment emerge from the budget model and its many inputs. The heterogeneity in these patterns can be summarized in a succinct form. This summary was shown to be consistent with the cost difference between local and regional prioritization for three of four test catchments. To explain the effect for the fourth catchment, the detail of the individual sediment sources needed to be taken into account.

Efficiency, costs and trade-offs in marine reserve system design

With marine biodiversity conservation the primary goal for reserve planning initiatives, a site's conservation potential is typically evaluated on the basis of the biological and physical features it contains. By comparison, socio-economic information is seldom a formal consideration of the reserve system design problem and generally limited to an assessment of threats, vulnerability or compatibility with surrounding uses. This is perhaps surprising given broad recognition that the success of reserve establishment is highly dependent on widespread stakeholder and community support. Using information on the spatial distribution and intensity of commercial rock lobster catch in South Australia, we demonstrate the capacity of mathematical reserve selection procedures to integrate socio-economic and biophysical information for marine reserve system design. Analyses of trade-offs highlight the opportunities to design representative, efficient and practical marine reserve systems that minimise potential loss to commercial users. We found that the objective of minimising the areal extent of the reserve system was barely compromised by incorporating economic design constraints. With a small increase in area (< 3%) and boundary length (< 10%), the economic impact of marine reserves on the commercial rock lobster fishery was reduced by more than a third. We considered also how a reserve planner might prioritise conservation areas using information on a planning units selection frequency. We found that selection frequencies alone were not a reliable guide for the selection of marine reserve systems, but could be used with approaches such as summed irreplaceability to direct conservation effort for efficient marine reserve design.

Effects of temporal association on recognition memory

The influence of temporal association on the representation and recognition of objects was investigated. Observers were shown sequences of novel faces in which the identity of the face changed as the head rotated. As a result, observers showed a tendency to treat the views as if they were of the same person. Additional experiments revealed that this was only true if the training sequences depicted head rotations rather than jumbled views; in other words, the sequence had to be spatially as well as temporally smooth. Results suggest that we are continuously associating views of objects to support later recognition, and that we do so not only on the basis of the physical similarity, but also the correlated appearance in time of the objects.

The effect of mammographic screening on invasive breast cancer in Western Australia

Objective: To determine whether mammographic screening has affected the presentation of invasive breast cancer in Western Australia. Design: Population-based reviews of the presentation of all invasive breast cancers diagnosed in Western Australia in 1989 and 1994. Setting: Western Australia (population 1.8 million), Active recruitment of women aged 50-69 years for mammographic screening began in 1989. Main outcome measures: Size and stage of invasive breast cancers at diagnosis. Results: From 1989 to 1994, the age-standardised incidence rose from 109 to 123 per 100 000 woman-years, based on 584 and 750 cases, respectively. The proportion of all invasive breast cancers detected as a result of a mammogram increased from 9.2% in 1989 to 34.5% in 1994. Among the cases where relevant information was recorded, the proportion of impalpable tumours increased from 7.7% in 1989 to 27.6% in 1994, and the average size of palpable tumours fell. There was an unexpected increase in the proportion of tumours that were negative on assays for oestrogen and progesterone receptors. Conclusions: A relatively simple and inexpensive clinical review has boosted confidence that the outlay of public monies required to establish and conduct screening in Australia appears likely to yield the reductions in mortality from breast cancer that would be predicted on the basis of the earlier controlled trials of mammography.

Foraging and vein-cutting behaviour of Euploea core corinna (W.S. Macleay) (Lepidoptera : Nymphalidae) caterpillars feeding on latex-bearing leaves

Caterpillars of Euploea core corinna (W. S. Macleay) sever leaf veins prior to feeding on their latex-bearing host plants, which restricts the flow of latex at feeding sites. The severing of leaf veins by insects feeding on latex-bearing plants is commonly referred to as 'sabotaging' and is thought to be an evolved response by the insect to counter the negative effects of feeding on latex-rich leaves. Sabotaging behaviour is described for all instars of E. core corinna, with particular attention given to neonates. Vein cutting by neonate E. core corinna caterpillars can occur within 2 h of hatching, with most caterpillars establishing feeding sites within 10 h. Commonly, first instars cut an are-shaped row of leaf side-veins parallel to the leaf margin, but they may also cut the leaf mid-rib in a fashion similar to older instar larvae. From a sample of 50 E. core corinna larvae, representing all instars, we found that the diameters of the veins cut by caterpillars are closely correlated to larval head width (r=0.90). Through manipulative experiments, we demonstrate for the first time that sabotaging behaviour in neonate caterpillars imposes no detectable short-term physiological costs on those caterpillars.

No evidence of female choice for a condition-dependent trait in the agamid lizard, Ctenophorus ornatus

Female choice has rarely been documented in reptiles. In this study we examined the variation, condition-dependence and female preference for a range of male morphological and colour traits in the agamid lizard, Ctenophorus ornatus. Colour traits were measured with reflectance spectrophotometry which allows the accurate quantification of colour traits independent of the human visual system. All the colour traits varied greatly in brightness but only the throat showed high variation in the spectral shape. For the morphological traits, chest patch size showed the highest amount of variation and was also condition-dependent. Males with a larger chest patch also had a patch which was a darker black. Female mate choice trials were conducted on male chest patch size and body size, which is the trait females have preferred in other lizard species. Females showed no preference, measured as spatial association, for larger males or males with bigger chest patches. In post-hoc tests females did not prefer males with brighter throats or darker chests, Our findings suggest that females show no spatial discrimination between males on the basis of a range of traits most expected to influence female choice.

Effect of storage of adzuki bean (Vigna angularis) on starch and protein properties

Differential scanning calorimetry was used to evaluate the effect of storage at 10degreesC, 20degreesC and 30degreesC, and 40% and 65% relative humidity (RH) on adzuki bean starch gelatinisation and protein denaturation temperatures. Storage for 6 months at an elevated storage temperature (30degreesC) caused increases in the starch gelatinisation onset temperature (T-o) and gelatinisation peak temperature (T-p) for both Bloodwood and Erimo varieties. Storage at 40% RH resulted in higher T-o and T-p values than storage at 65% RH. The T-o of starch from Bloodwood and Erimo beans stored for up to 1.5 months at 10degreesC and 65% were similar to those of fresh beans. The changes in the salt-soluble protein component were less clear cut than those of the starch. Nonetheless, protein extracted from beans stored at 40% RH exhibited significantly lower T-o and T-p values compared with those stored at 65% RH. This indicates some destabilisation of the protein at the higher RH. These results suggest that detrimental changes occur in starch and, to a lesser extent protein, of adzuki beans stored under unfavourable conditions. On the basis of these results, the best storage conditions to maintain the characteristics of fresh beans are low temperatures (e.g. 10degreesC) and high RH (e.g. 65%). (C) 2003 Swiss Society of Food Science and Technology. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

CysView: protein classification based on cysteine pairing patterns

CysView is a web-based application tool that identifies and classifies proteins according to their disulfide connectivity patterns. It accepts a dataset of annotated protein sequences in various formats and returns a graphical representation of cysteine pairing patterns. CysView displays cysteine patterns for those records in the data with disulfide annotations. It allows the viewing of records grouped by connectivity patterns. CysView's utility as an analysis tool was demonstrated by the rapid and correct classification of scorpion toxin entries from GenPept on the basis of their disulfide pairing patterns. It has proved useful for rapid detection of irrelevant and partial records, or those with incomplete annotations. CysView can be used to support distant homology between proteins. CysView is publicly available at http://research.i2r.a-star.edu.sg/CysView/.

The effect of spatial definition on the allocation of clients to screening clinics

We compared four strategies for inviting 91,456 women aged 50-69 years to one of six clinics for mammography screening and 40,142 men aged 60-79 years to one of 10 clinics for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening. The strategies were invitation to the clinic nearest to the client and invitation to the clinic nearest to the client's area of residence defined by census small area, postcode and local government area. For each strategy we calculated the expected demand at each clinic and the travel distances for clients. We found that when women were allocated to mammography clinics on the basis of the local government area instead of their individual address, expected demand at one clinic increased by 60%, and 19% of clients were invited to attend a more remote clinic, entailing 99,000 km of additional travel. Similar results were obtained for men allocated to AAA clinics by their postcode of residence instead of their individual address: 55% difference in expected demand, 13% to a more remote clinic and 60,000 km of extra travel. Allocation on the basis of small areas did not show such great differences, except for travel distance, which was about 5% higher for each clinic type. We recommend that allocation of clients to screening clinics be made according to residential address, that assessment of the location of clinics be based on distances between residences and nearest clinic, but that planning new locations for clinics be aided with spatial analysis tools using small area demographic and social data. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Notes on market failure and the Paretian (Kaldor-Hicks) relevance and irrelevance of unfavourable externalities

The following are notes that have been distributed by me over the last few years to students in Environmental Economics at The University of Queensland. They give particular attention to whether externalities are Pareto or Kaldor-Hicks relevant from a policy point of view. Externalities are Kaldor-Hicks or Pareto irrelevant if no change is possible for which gainers could compensate losers. Both absolute and marginal externalities may be Kaldor-Hicks relevant. Infra-marginal negative externalities are often, but not always, Kaldor-Hicks irrelevant. There are at least two cases where such externalities can be relevant. First, the absolute impact of the negative externality may be so great that the source of the externality should be eliminated. Secondly, if the externality arises from production, its nature may depend on the type of production technique adopted. Although for the technique adopted, an infra-marginal negative externality occurs. That is Paretian irrelevant given that choice of this technique is the only available possibility, alternative techniques may actually be available in practice. Some of these may generate even smaller total external effects and be socially preferable. Both cases are outlined and illustrated in these notes. The analysis reveals the dangers of relying on marginalism for deciding on environmental policy. Total (external) effects are often of great social and economic importance and appropriate social choices cannot be made on the basis of marginalism alone.

Effects of temporal association on recognition memory

The influence of temporal association on the representation and recognition of objects was investigated. Observers were shown sequences of novel faces in which the identity of the face changed as the head rotated. As a result, observers showed a tendency to treat the views as if they were of the same person. Additional experiments revealed that this was only true if the training sequences depicted head rotations rather than jumbled views: in other words, the sequence had to be spatially as well as temporally smooth. Results suggest that we are continuously associating views of objects to support later recognition, and that we do so not only on the basis of the physical similarity, but also the correlated appearance in time of the objects.