A fast cross-entropy method for estimating buffer overflows in queuing networks

In this paper, we propose a fast adaptive importance sampling method for the efficient simulation of buffer overflow probabilities in queueing networks. The method comprises three stages. First, we estimate the minimum cross-entropy tilting parameter for a small buffer level; next, we use this as a starting value for the estimation of the optimal tilting parameter for the actual (large) buffer level. Finally, the tilting parameter just found is used to estimate the overflow probability of interest. We study various properties of the method in more detail for the M/M/1 queue and conjecture that similar properties also hold for quite general queueing networks. Numerical results support this conjecture and demonstrate the high efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Estimating buffer overflows in three stages using cross-entropy

In this paper we propose a fast adaptive Importance Sampling method for the efficient simulation of buffer overflow probabilities in queueing networks. The method comprises three stages. First we estimate the minimum Cross-Entropy tilting parameter for a small buffer level; next, we use this as a starting value for the estimation of the optimal tilting parameter for the actual (large) buffer level; finally, the tilting parameter just found is used to estimate the overflow probability of interest. We recognize three distinct properties of the method which together explain why the method works well; we conjecture that they hold for quite general queueing networks. Numerical results support this conjecture and demonstrate the high efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Overflow characteristics of circular weirs: Effects of inflow conditions

The most common types of weirs are the broad-crested weir, the sharp-crested weir, the circular-crested weir, and nowadays, the ogee crest weir, Advantages of the cylindrical weir shape include the stable overflow pattern, the ease to pass floating debris, the simplicity of design compared to ogee crest design, and the associated lower costs. in this study, the writers describe new experiments of circular weir overflows, with eight cylinder sizes, for several weir heights and for five types of inflow conditions: partially developed inflow, fully developed inflow, upstream ramp, upstream undular hydraulic jump, and upstream (breaking) hydraulic jump. Within the range of the experiments, the cylinder size, the weir height DIR and the presence of an upstream ramp had no effect on the discharge coefficient, flow depth at crest, and energy dissipation. But the inflow conditions had substantial effects on the discharge characteristics and flow properties at the crest. Practically, the results indicate that discharge measurements with circular weirs are significantly affected by the upstream flow conditions.

On the decay rates of buffers in continuous flow lines

Consider a tandem system of machines separated by infinitely large buffers. The machines process a continuous flow of products, possibly at different speeds. The life and repair times of the machines are assumed to be exponential. We claim that the overflow probability of each buffer has an exponential decay, and provide an algorithm to determine the exact decay rates in terms of the speeds and the failure and repair rates of the machines. These decay rates provide useful qualitative insight into the behavior of the flow line. In the derivation of the algorithm we use the theory of Large Deviations.

Model based procedure for scale-up of wet overflow ball mills Part 1: Outline of the methodology

Bond's method for ball mill scale-up only gives the mill power draw for a given duty. This method is incompatible with computer modelling and simulation techniques. It might not be applicable for the design of fine grinding ball mills and ball mills preceded by autogenous and semi-autogenous grinding mills. Model-based ball mill scale-up methods have not been validated using a wide range of full-scale circuit data. Their accuracy is therefore questionable. Some of these methods also need expensive pilot testing. A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed which does not have these limitations. This procedure uses data from two laboratory tests to determine the parameters of a ball mill model. A set of scale-up criteria then scales-up these parameters. The procedure uses the scaled-up parameters to simulate the steady state performance of full-scale mill circuits. At the end of the simulation, the scale-up procedure gives the size distribution, the volumetric flowrate and the mass flowrate of all the streams in the circuit, and the mill power draw.

Model-based procedure for scale-up of wet, overflow ball mills - Part II: Worked example

A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed which uses laboratory data to predict the performance of MI-scale ball mill circuits. This procedure contains two laboratory tests. These laboratory tests give the data for the determination of the parameters of a ball mill model. A set of scale-up criteria then scales-up these parameters. The procedure uses the scaled-up parameters to simulate the steady state performance of the full-scale mill circuit. At the end of the simulation, the scale-up procedure gives the size distribution, the volumetric flowrate and the mass flowrate of all the streams in the circuit, and the mill power draw. A worked example shows how the new ball mill scale-up procedure is executed. This worked example uses laboratory data to predict the performance of a full-scale re-grind mill circuit. This circuit consists of a ball mill in closed circuit with hydrocyclones. The MI-scale ball mill has a diameter (inside liners) of 1.85m. The scale-up procedure shows that the full-scale circuit produces a product (hydrocyclone overflow) that has an 80% passing size of 80 mum. The circuit has a recirculating load of 173%. The calculated power draw of the full-scale mill is 92kW (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-based procedure for scale-up of wet, overflow ball mills - Part III: Validation and discussion

A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed. This procedure has been validated using seven sets of Ml-scale ball mil data. The largest ball mills in these data have diameters (inside liners) of 6.58m. The procedure can predict the 80% passing size of the circuit product to within +/-6% of the measured value, with a precision of +/-11% (one standard deviation); the re-circulating load to within +/-33% of the mass-balanced value (this error margin is within the uncertainty associated with the determination of the re-circulating load); and the mill power to within +/-5% of the measured value. This procedure is applicable for the design of ball mills which are preceded by autogenous (AG) mills, semi-autogenous (SAG) mills, crushers and flotation circuits. The new procedure is more precise and more accurate than Bond's method for ball mill scale-up. This procedure contains no efficiency correction which relates to the mill diameter. This suggests that, within the range of mill diameter studied, milling efficiency does not vary with mill diameter. This is in contrast with Bond's equation-Bond claimed that milling efficiency increases with mill diameter. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do harvest refuges buffer kangaroos against evolutionary responses to selective harvesting?

There is a wealth of literature documenting a directional change of body size in heavily harvested populations. Most of this work concentrates on aquatic systems, but terrestrial populations are equally at risk. This paper explores the capacity of harvest refuges to counteract potential effects of size-selective harvesting on the allele frequency,of populations. We constructed a stochastic, individual-based model parameterized with data on red kangaroos. Because we do not know which part of individual growth would change in the course of natural selection, we explored the effects of two alternative models of individual growth in which alleles affect either the growth rate or the maximum size. The model results show that size-selective harvesting can result in significantly smaller kangaroos for a given age when the entire population is subject to harvesting. In contrast, in scenarios that include dispersal from harvest refuges, the initial allele frequency remains virtually unchanged.

Application of the cross-entropy method to the buffer allocation problem in a simulation-based environment

The buffer allocation problem (BAP) is a well-known difficult problem in the design of production lines. We present a stochastic algorithm for solving the BAP, based on the cross-entropy method, a new paradigm for stochastic optimization. The algorithm involves the following iterative steps: (a) the generation of buffer allocations according to a certain random mechanism, followed by (b) the modification of this mechanism on the basis of cross-entropy minimization. Through various numerical experiments we demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm and show that the method can quickly generate (near-)optimal buffer allocations for fairly large production lines.

Effect of Cu Toxicity on Growth of Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata)

Accurate determination of the rhizotoxicity of Cu in dilute nutrient solutions is hindered by the difficulty of maintaining constant, pre-determined concentrations of Cu (micromolar) in solution. The critical Cu2+ activity associated with a reduction in the growth of solution-grown cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp. cv Caloona) was determined in a system in which Cu was maintained constant through the use of a cation exchange resin. The growth of roots and shoots was found to be reduced at solution Cu2+ activities ≥ 1.7 µM (corresponding to 90 % maximum growth). Although root growth was most likely reduced due to a direct Cu2+ toxicity, it is considered that the shoot growth reduction is attributable to a decrease in tissue concentrations of K, Ca, Mg, and Fe and the formation of interveinal chlorosis. At high Cu2+ activities, roots were brown in color, short and thick, had bent root tips with cracking of the epidermis and outer cortex, and had local swellings behind the roots tips due to a reduction in cell elongation. Root hair growth was reduced at concentrations lower than that which caused a significant reduction in overall root fresh weight.

Ester prodrugs of a potent analgesic, morphine-6-sulfate: syntheses, spectroscopic and physicochemical properties

The aim of this work is to develop 3-acyl prodrugs of the potent analgesic morphine-6-sulfate (M6S). These are expected to have higher potency and/or exhibit longer duration of analgesic action than the parent compound. M6S and the prodrugs were synthesized, then purified either by recrystallization or by semi-preparative HPLC and the structures confirmed by mass spectrometry, IR spectrophotometry and by detailed 1- and 2-D NMR studies. The lipophilicities of the compounds were assessed by a combination of shake-flask, group contribution and HPLC retention methods. The octanol-buffer partition coefficient could only be obtained directly for 3-heptanoylmorphine-6-sulfate, using the shake-flask method. The partition coefficients (P) for the remaining prodrugs were estimated from known methylene group contributions. A good linear relationship between log P and the HPLC log capacity factors was demonstrated. Hydrolysis of the 3-acetyl prodrug, as a representative of the group, was found to occur relatively slowly in buffers (pH range 6.15-8.01), with a small buffer catalysis contribution. The rates of enzymatic hydrolysis of the 3-acyl group in 10% rat blood and in 10% rat brain homogenate were investigated. The prodrugs followed apparent first order hydrolysis kinetics, with a significantly faster hydrolysis rate found in 10% rat brain homogenate than in 10% rat blood for all compounds. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.