An advanced regularization methodology for use in watershed model calibration

A calibration methodology based on an efficient and stable mathematical regularization scheme is described. This scheme is a variant of so-called Tikhonov regularization in which the parameter estimation process is formulated as a constrained minimization problem. Use of the methodology eliminates the need for a modeler to formulate a parsimonious inverse problem in which a handful of parameters are designated for estimation prior to initiating the calibration process. Instead, the level of parameter parsimony required to achieve a stable solution to the inverse problem is determined by the inversion algorithm itself. Where parameters, or combinations of parameters, cannot be uniquely estimated, they are provided with values, or assigned relationships with other parameters, that are decreed to be realistic by the modeler. Conversely, where the information content of a calibration dataset is sufficient to allow estimates to be made of the values of many parameters, the making of such estimates is not precluded by preemptive parsimonizing ahead of the calibration process. White Tikhonov schemes are very attractive and hence widely used, problems with numerical stability can sometimes arise because the strength with which regularization constraints are applied throughout the regularized inversion process cannot be guaranteed to exactly complement inadequacies in the information content of a given calibration dataset. A new technique overcomes this problem by allowing relative regularization weights to be estimated as parameters through the calibration process itself. The technique is applied to the simultaneous calibration of five subwatershed models, and it is demonstrated that the new scheme results in a more efficient inversion, and better enforcement of regularization constraints than traditional Tikhonov regularization methodologies. Moreover, it is argued that a joint calibration exercise of this type results in a more meaningful set of parameters than can be achieved by individual subwatershed model calibration. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Positive solutions of a Neumann problem with competing critical nonlinearities

We present existence results for a Neumann problem involving critical Sobolev nonlinearities both on the right hand side of the equation and at the boundary condition.. Positive solutions are obtained through constrained minimization on the Nehari manifold. Our approach is based on the concentration 'compactness principle of P. L. Lions and M. Struwe.

The cost of uniqueness in groundwater model calibration

Calibration of a groundwater model requires that hydraulic properties be estimated throughout a model domain. This generally constitutes an underdetermined inverse problem, for which a Solution can only be found when some kind of regularization device is included in the inversion process. Inclusion of regularization in the calibration process can be implicit, for example through the use of zones of constant parameter value, or explicit, for example through solution of a constrained minimization problem in which parameters are made to respect preferred values, or preferred relationships, to the degree necessary for a unique solution to be obtained. The cost of uniqueness is this: no matter which regularization methodology is employed, the inevitable consequence of its use is a loss of detail in the calibrated field. This, ill turn, can lead to erroneous predictions made by a model that is ostensibly well calibrated. Information made available as a by-product of the regularized inversion process allows the reasons for this loss of detail to be better understood. In particular, it is easily demonstrated that the estimated value for an hydraulic property at any point within a model domain is, in fact, a weighted average of the true hydraulic property over a much larger area. This averaging process causes loss of resolution in the estimated field. Where hydraulic conductivity is the hydraulic property being estimated, high averaging weights exist in areas that are strategically disposed with respect to measurement wells, while other areas may contribute very little to the estimated hydraulic conductivity at any point within the model domain, this possibly making the detection of hydraulic conductivity anomalies in these latter areas almost impossible. A study of the post-calibration parameter field covariance matrix allows further insights into the loss of system detail incurred through the calibration process to be gained. A comparison of pre- and post-calibration parameter covariance matrices shows that the latter often possess a much smaller spectral bandwidth than the former. It is also demonstrated that, as all inevitable consequence of the fact that a calibrated model cannot replicate every detail of the true system, model-to-measurement residuals can show a high degree of spatial correlation, a fact which must be taken into account when assessing these residuals either qualitatively, or quantitatively in the exploration of model predictive uncertainty. These principles are demonstrated using a synthetic case in which spatial parameter definition is based oil pilot points, and calibration is Implemented using both zones of piecewise constancy and constrained minimization regularization. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Small molecular probes for G-protein-coupled C5a receptors: Conformationally constrained antagonists derived from the C terminus of the human plasma protein C5a

Activation of the human complement system of plasma proteins in response to infection or injury produces a 4-helix bundle glycoprotein (74 amino acids) known as C5a. C5a binds to G-protein-coupled receptors on cell surfaces triggering receptor-ligand internalization, signal transduction, and powerful inflammatory responses. Since excessive levels of C5a are associated with autoimmune and chronic inflammatory disorders, inhibitors of receptor activation may have therapeutic potential. We now report solution structures and receptor-binding and antagonist activities for some of the first small molecule antagonists of C5a derived from its hexapeptide C terminus. The antagonist NMe-Phe-Lys-Pro-D-Cha-Trp-D-Arg-CO2H (1) surprisingly shows an unusually well-defined solution structure as determined by H-1 NMR spectroscopy. This is one of the smallest acyclic peptides found to possess a defined solution conformation, which can be explained by the constraining role of intramolecular hydrogen bonding. NOE and coupling constant data, slow deuterium exchange, and a low dependence on temperature for the chemical shift of the D-Cha-NH strongly indicate an inverse gamma turn stabilized by a D-Cha-NH ... OC-Lys hydrogen bond. Smaller conformational populations are associated with a hydrogen bond between Trp-NH ... OC-Lys, defining a type II beta turn distorted by the inverse gamma turn incorporated within it. An excellent correlation between receptor-affinity and antagonist activity is indicated for a limited set of synthetic peptides. Conversion of the C-terminal carboxylate of 1 to an amide decreases antagonist potency 5-fold, but potency is increased up to 10-fold over 1 if the amide bond is made between the C-terminal carboxylate and a Lys/Orn side chain to form a cyclic analogue. The solution structure of cycle 6 also shows gamma and beta turns; however, the latter occurs in a different position, and there are clear conformational changes in 6 vs 1 that result in enhanced activity. These results indicate that potent C5a antagonists can be developed by targeting site 2 alone of the C5a receptor and define a novel pharmacophore for developing powerful receptor probes or drug candidates.

Assisting decision-making in Queensland barley production through chance constrained programming

A chance constrained programming model is developed to assist Queensland barley growers make varietal and agronomic decisions in the face of changing product demands and volatile production conditions. Unsuitable or overlooked in many risk programming applications, the chance constrained programming approach nonetheless aptly captures the single-stage decision problem faced by barley growers of whether to plant lower-yielding but potentially higher-priced malting varieties, given a particular expectation of meeting malting grade standards. Different expectations greatly affect the optimal mix of malting and feed barley activities. The analysis highlights the suitability of chance constrained programming to this specific class of farm decision problem.

A cost-minimization analysis of the societal costs of realtime teledermatology compared with conventional care: results from a randomized controlled trial in New Zealand

A randomized controlled trial was carried out to measure the societal costs of realtime teledermatology compared with those of conventional hospital care in New Zealand. Two rural health centres were linked to a specialist hospital via ISDN at 128 kbit/s. Over 10 months, 203 patients were referred for a specialist dermatological consultation and 26 were followed up, giving a total of 229 consultations. Fifty-four per cent were randomized to the teledermatology consultation and 46% to the conventional hospital consultation. A cost-minimization analysis was used to calculate the total costs of both types of dermatological consultation. The total cost of the 123 teledermatology consultations was NZ$34,346 and the total cost of the 106 conventional hospital consultations was NZ$30,081. The average societal cost of the teledermatology consultation was therefore NZ$279.23 compared with NZ$283.79 for the conventional hospital consultation. The marginal cost of seeing an additional patient was NZ$135 via teledermatology and NZ$284 via conventional hospital appointment. From a societal viewpoint, and assuming an equal outcome, teledermatology was a more cost-efficient use of resources than conventional hospital care.

Harm minimization in a prohibition context - Australia

Australia ranks high internationally in the prevalence of cannabis and other illicit drug use, with the prevalence of all illicit drug use increasing since the 1970s. There are two distinctive features associated with harms from injecting drug use-high rates of death from heroin overdose and low rates of HIV infection. Australia has largely avoided a punitive and moralistic drug policy, developing instead harm minimization strategies and a robust treatment framework embedded in a strong law enforcement regime. Two illustrations of Australian drug policy are presented: legislation that provides for the expiation of simple cannabis offences by payment of a fine and the widespread implementation of agonist maintenance treatment for heroin dependence.

Conformationally constrained macrocycles that mimic tripeptide beta-strands in water and aprotic solvents

The beta-strand conformation is unknown for short peptides in aqueous solution, yet it is a fundamental building block in proteins and the crucial recognition motif for proteolytic enzymes that enable formation and turnover of all proteins. To create a generalized scaffold as a peptidomimetic that is preorganized in a beta-strand, we individually synthesized a series of 15-22-membered macrocyclic analogues of tripeptides and analyzed their structures. Each cycle is highly constrained by two trans amide bonds and a planar aromatic ring with a short nonpeptidic linker between them. A measure of this ring strain is the restricted rotation of the component tyrosinyl aromatic ring (DeltaG(rot) 76.7 kJ mol(-1) (16-membered ring), 46.1 kJ mol(-1) (17-membered ring)) evidenced by variable temperature proton NMR spectra (DMF-d(7), 200-400 K). Unusually large amide coupling constants ((3)J(NH-CHalpha) 9-10 Hz) corresponding to large dihedral angles were detected in both protic and aprotic solvents for these macrocycles, consistent with a high degree of structure in solution. The temperature dependence of all amide NH chemical shifts (Deltadelta/T7-12 ppb/deg) precluded the presence of transannular hydrogen bonds that define alternative turn structures. Whereas similar sized conventional cyclic peptides usually exist in solution as an equilibrium mixture of multiple conformers, these macrocycles adopt a well-defined beta-strand structure even in water as revealed by 2-D NMR spectral data and by a structure calculation for the smallest (15-membered) and most constrained macrocycle. Macrocycles that are sufficiently constrained to exclusively adopt a beta-strand-mimicking structure in water may be useful pre-organized and generic templates for the design of compounds that interfere with beta-strand recognition in biology.

Regioselective synthesis of antiparallel loops on a macrocyclic scaffold constrained by oxazoles and thiazoles

[GRAPHICS] The regioselective syntheses and structures are reported for two tris-macrocylic compounds, each possessing two antiparallel loops on a macrocyclic scaffold constrained by two oxazoles and two thiazoles. NMR solution structures show the loops projecting from the same face of the macrocycle. Such molecules are shown to be prototypes for mimicking multiple loops of proteins.

Synthesis, stability, antiviral activity, and protease-bound structures of substrate-mimicking constrained macrocyclic inhibitors of HIV-1 protease

Three new peptidomimetics (1-3) have been developed with highly stable and conformationally constrained macrocyclic components that replace tripeptide segments of protease substrates. Each compound inhibits both HIV-1 protease and viral replication (HIV-I, HIV-2) at nanomolar concentrations without cytotoxicity to uninfected cells below 10 mu M. Their activities against HIV-1 protease (K-i 1.7 nM (1), 0.6 nM (2), 0.3 nM (3)) are 1-2 orders of magnitude greater than their antiviral potencies against HIV-1-infected primary peripheral blood mononuclear cells (IC50 45 nM (1), 56 nM (2), 95 nM (3)) or HIV-1-infected MT2 cells (IC50 90 nM (1), 60 nM (2)), suggesting suboptimal cellular uptake. However their antiviral potencies are similar to those of indinavir and amprenavir under identical conditions. There were significant differences in their capacities to inhibit the replication of HIV-1 and HIV-2 in infected MT2 cells, 1 being ineffective against HIV-2 while 2 was equally effective against both virus types. Evidence is presented that 1 and 2 inhibit cleavage of the HIV-1 structural protein precursor Pr55(gag) to p24 in virions derived from chronically infected cells, consistent with inhibition of the viral protease in cells. Crystal structures refined to 1.75 Angstrom (1) and 1.85 Angstrom (2) for two of the macrocyclic inhibitors bound to HIV-1 protease establish structural mimicry of the tripeptides that the cycles were designed to imitate. Structural comparisons between protease-bound macrocyclic inhibitors, VX478 (amprenavir), and L-735,524 (indinavir) show that their common acyclic components share the same space in the active site of the enzyme and make identical interactions with enzyme residues. This substrate-mimicking minimalist approach to drug design could have benefits in the context of viral resistance, since mutations which induce inhibitor resistance may also be those which prevent substrate processing.

Cycloadditions of isobenzofuran to a constrained template bearing neighboring dienophiles

A high yielding synthesis of the pentacyclic diene-dione 1 has enabled investigation of its reactivity as a double dienophile in Diels-Alder [4+2] cycloadditions with isobenzofuran, leading to novel and highly symmetrical three-sided cavitands 3 and 4.