7 resultados para confidence level

em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia


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The central composite rotatable design (CCRD) was used to design an experimental program to model the effects of inlet pressure, feed density, and length and diameter of the inner vortex finder on the operational performance of a 150-min three-product cyclone. The ranges of values of the variables used in the design were: inlet pressure: 80-130 kPa, feed density: 30 60%; length of IVF below the OVF: 50-585 mm; diameter of IVF: 35-50 mm. A total of 30 tests were conducted, which is 51 less; an that required for a three-level full factorial design. Because the model allows confident performance prediction by interpolation over the range of data in the database, it was used to construct response surface graphs to describe the effects of the variables on the performance of the three-product cyclone. To obtain a simple and yet a realistic model, it was refitted using only the variable terms that are significant at greater than or equal to 90% confidence level. Considering the selected operating variables, the resultant model is significant and predicts the experimental data well. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Specific cutting energy (SE) has been widely used to assess the rock cuttability for mechanical excavation purposes. Some prediction models were developed for SE through correlating rock properties with SE values. However, some of the textural and compositional rock parameters i.e. texture coefficient and feldspar, mafic, and felsic mineral contents were not considered. The present study is to investigate the effects of previously ignored rock parameters along with engineering rock properties on SE. Mineralogical and petrographic analyses, rock mechanics, and linear rock cutting tests were performed on sandstone samples taken from sites around Ankara, Turkey. Relationships between SE and rock properties were evaluated using bivariate correlation and linear regression analyses. The tests and subsequent analyses revealed that the texture coefficient and feldspar content of sandstones affected rock cuttability, evidenced by significant correlations between these parameters and SE at a 90% confidence level. Felsic and mafic mineral contents of sandstones did not exhibit any statistically significant correlation against SE. Cementation coefficient, effective porosity, and pore volume had good correlations against SE. Poisson's ratio, Brazilian tensile strength, Shore scleroscope hardness, Schmidt hammer hardness, dry density, and point load strength index showed very strong linear correlations against SE at confidence levels of 95% and above, all of which were also found suitable to be used in predicting SE individually, depending on the results of regression analysis, ANOVA, Student's t-tests, and R2 values. Poisson's ratio exhibited the highest correlation with SE and seemed to be the most reliable SE prediction tool in sandstones.

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Electricity market price forecast is a changeling yet very important task for electricity market managers and participants. Due to the complexity and uncertainties in the power grid, electricity prices are highly volatile and normally carry with spikes. which may be (ens or even hundreds of times higher than the normal price. Such electricity spikes are very difficult to be predicted. So far. most of the research on electricity price forecast is based on the normal range electricity prices. This paper proposes a data mining based electricity price forecast framework, which can predict the normal price as well as the price spikes. The normal price can be, predicted by a previously proposed wavelet and neural network based forecast model, while the spikes are forecasted based on a data mining approach. This paper focuses on the spike prediction and explores the reasons for price spikes based on the measurement of a proposed composite supply-demand balance index (SDI) and relative demand index (RDI). These indices are able to reflect the relationship among electricity demand, electricity supply and electricity reserve capacity. The proposed model is based on a mining database including market clearing price, trading hour. electricity), demand, electricity supply and reserve. Bayesian classification and similarity searching techniques are used to mine the database to find out the internal relationships between electricity price spikes and these proposed. The mining results are used to form the price spike forecast model. This proposed model is able to generate forecasted price spike, level of spike and associated forecast confidence level. The model is tested with the Queensland electricity market data with promising results. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Specific cutting energy (SE) has been widely used to assess the rock cuttability for mechanical excavation purposes. Some prediction models were developed for SE through correlating rock properties with SE values. However, some of the textural and compositional rock parameters i.e. texture coefficient and feldspar, mafic, and felsic mineral contents were not considered. The present study is to investigate the effects of previously ignored rock parameters along with engineering rock properties on SE. Mineralogical and petrographic analyses, rock mechanics, and linear rock cutting tests were performed on sandstone samples taken from sites around Ankara, Turkey. Relationships between SE and rock properties were evaluated using bivariate correlation and linear regression analyses. The tests and subsequent analyses revealed that the texture coefficient and feldspar content of sandstones affected rock cuttability, evidenced by significant correlations between these parameters and SE at a 90% confidence level. Felsic and mafic mineral contents of sandstones did not exhibit any statistically significant correlation against SE. Cementation coefficient, effective porosity, and pore volume had good correlations against SE. Poisson's ratio, Brazilian tensile strength, Shore scleroscope hardness, Schmidt hammer hardness, dry density, and point load strength index showed very strong linear correlations against SE at confidence levels of 95% and above, all of which were also found suitable to be used in predicting SE individually, depending on the results of regression analysis, ANOVA, Student's t-tests, and R-2 values. Poisson's ratio exhibited the highest correlation with SE and seemed to be the most reliable SE prediction tool in sandstones.

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The design, development, and use of complex systems models raises a unique class of challenges and potential pitfalls, many of which are commonly recurring problems. Over time, researchers gain experience in this form of modeling, choosing algorithms, techniques, and frameworks that improve the quality, confidence level, and speed of development of their models. This increasing collective experience of complex systems modellers is a resource that should be captured. Fields such as software engineering and architecture have benefited from the development of generic solutions to recurring problems, called patterns. Using pattern development techniques from these fields, insights from communities such as learning and information processing, data mining, bioinformatics, and agent-based modeling can be identified and captured. Collections of such 'pattern languages' would allow knowledge gained through experience to be readily accessible to less-experienced practitioners and to other domains. This paper proposes a methodology for capturing the wisdom of computational modelers by introducing example visualization patterns, and a pattern classification system for analyzing the relationship between micro and macro behaviour in complex systems models. We anticipate that a new field of complex systems patterns will provide an invaluable resource for both practicing and future generations of modelers.

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Purpose/Objectives: To evaluate the impact of a cancer nursing education course on RNs. Design: Quasi-experimental, longitudinal, pretest/post-test design, with a follow-up assessment six weeks after the completion of the nursing education course. Setting: Urban, nongovernment, cancer control agency in Australia. Sample: 53 RNs, of whom 93% were female, with a mean age of 44.6 years and a mean of 16.8 years of experience in nursing; 86% of the nurses resided and worked in regional areas outside of the state capital. Methods: Scales included the Intervention With Psychosocial Needs: Perceived Importance and Skill Level Scale, Palliative Care Quiz for Nurses, Breast Cancer Knowledge, Preparedness for Cancer Nursing, and Satisfaction With Learning. Data were analyzed using multiple analysis of variance and paired t tests. Main Research Variables: Cancer nursing-related knowledge, preparedness for cancer nursing, and attitudes toward and perceived skills in the psychosocial care of patients with cancer and their families. Findings: Compared to nurses in the control group, nurses who attended the nursing education course improved in their cancer nursing-related knowledge, preparedness for cancer nursing, and attitudes toward and perceived skills in the psychosocial care of patients with cancer and their families. Improvements were evident at course completion and were maintained at the six-week follow-up assessment. Conclusions: The nursing education course was effective in improving nurses' scores on all outcome variables. Implications for Nursing: Continuing nursing education courses that use intensive mode timetabling, small group learning, and a mix of teaching methods, including didactic and interactive approaches and clinical placements, are effective and have the potential to improve nursing practice in oncology.

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Background: Colorectal cancers (CRCs) may be categorised according to the degree of microsatellite instability (MSI) exhibited, as MSI-high (MSI-H), MSI-low (MSI-L), or microsatellite stable (MSS). MSI-H status confers a survival advantage to patients with sporadic CRC. Aims: To determine if low levels of MSI are related to the clinicopathological features and prognosis of sporadic stage C CRC. Patients: A total of 255 patients who underwent resection for sporadic stage C CRC were studied. No patient received chemotherapy. Minimum follow up was five years. Methods: DNA extracted from archival malignant and non-malignant tissue was amplified by polymerase chain reaction using a panel of 11 microsatellites. MSI-H was defined as instability at greater than or equal to40% of markers, MSS as no instability, and MSI-L as instability at >0% but,40% of markers. Patients with MSI-H CRC were excluded from analysis as they have previously been shown to have better survival. Results: Thirty three MSI-L and 176 MSS CRCs were identified. There was no difference in biological characteristics or overall survival of MSI-L compared with MSS CRC but MSI-L was associated with poorer cancer specific survival (hazard ratio 2.0 (95% confidence interval 1.1-3.6)). Conclusions: Sporadic MSI-L and MSS CRCs have comparable clinicopathological features. Further studies are required to assess the impact of MSI-L on prognosis.