Climate change and marine plankton

Understanding how climate change will affect the planet is a key issue worldwide. Questions concerning the pace and impacts of climate change are thus central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies, and addressing the consequences of climate change is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. Here, we review the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on systematic changes in plankton community structure, abundance, distribution and phenology over recent decades. We examine the potential socioeconomic impacts of these plankton changes, such as the effects of bottom-up forcing on commercially exploited fish stocks (i.e. plankton as food for fish). We also consider the crucial roles that plankton might have in dictating the future pace of climate change via feedback mechanisms responding to elevated atmospheric CO2 levels. An important message emerges from this review: ongoing plankton monitoring programmes worldwide will act as sentinels to identify future changes in marine ecosystems.

Adverse feedback sequences in exploited marine systems: Are deliberate interruptive actions warranted?

Several mechanisms for self-enhancing feedback instabilities in marine ecosystems are identified and briefly elaborated. It appears that adverse phases of operation may be abruptly triggered by explosive breakouts in abundance of one or more previously suppressed populations. Moreover, an evident capacity of marine organisms to accomplish extensive geographic habitat expansions may expand and perpetuate a breakout event. This set of conceptual elements provides a framework for interpretation of a sequence of events that has occurred in the Northern Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (off south-western Africa). This history can illustrate how multiple feedback loops might interact with one another in unanticipated and quite malignant ways, leading not only to collapse of customary resource stocks but also to degradation of the ecosystem to such an extent that disruption of customary goods and services may go beyond fisheries alone to adversely affect other major global ecosystem concerns (e.g. proliferations of jellyfish and other slimy, stingy, toxic and/or noxious organisms, perhaps even climate change itself, etc.). The wisdom of management interventions designed to interrupt an adverse mode of feedback operation is pondered. Research pathways are proposed that may lead to improved insights needed: (i) to avoid potential 'triggers' that might set adverse phases of feedback loop operation into motion; and (ii) to diagnose and properly evaluate plausible actions to reverse adverse phases of feedback operation that might already have been set in motion. These pathways include the drawing of inferences from available 'quasi-experiments' produced either by short-term climatic variation or inadvertently in the course of biased exploitation practices, and inter-regional applications of the comparative method of science.