Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Dynamics of a temperature-related coral disease outbreak

During the austral summer of 2001/2002, a coral epizootic occurred almost simultaneously with a bleaching event on the fringing reefs of Magnetic Island (Great Barrier Reef region), Australia. This resulted in a 3- to 4-fold increase in the mean percentage of partial mortality rate in a population of the hard coral Montipora aequituberculata. The putative disease state, ‘atramentous necrosis’, was observed on both bleached and normally-pigmented M. aequituberculata, and presented blackened lesions that spread within days across the colony surface and throughout the population. Diseased portions of the corals were only visible for 3 to 4 wk, with diseased tissues becoming covered in sediment and algae, which rapidly obscured evidence of the outbreak. Diseased colonies were again observed in the summer of 2002/2003 after being absent over the 2002 winter. Analysis of when diseased and bleached corals were first observed, and when and where the mortality occurred on individual colonies, indicated virtually all the mortality over the summer could be attributed to the disease and not to the bleaching. Fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) techniques and cloning, and analysis of the 16S rRNA genes from diseased coral tissue, identified a mixed microbial assemblage in the diseased tissues particularly within the Alphaproteobacteria, Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes. While it is not possible in this study to distinguish between a disease-causing microbial community versus secondary invaders, the bacterial 16S rDNA sequences identified within the blackened lesions demonstrated high similarity to sequences from black band disease and white plague infected corals, suggesting either common aetiological agents or development of a bacterial community that is specific to degrading coral tissues. Temperature-induced coral disease outbreaks, with the potential for elevated levels of mortality, may represent an added problem for corals during the warmer summer months and an added dimension to predicted increases in water temperature from climate change.

Modelling, nitrogen dynamics in sugarcane systems: Recent advances and applications

Substantial amounts of nitrogen (N) fertiliser are necessary for commercial sugarcane production because of the large biomass produced by sugarcane crops. Since this fertiliser is a substantial input cost and has implications if N is lost to the environment, there are pressing needs to optimise the supply of N to the crops' requirements. The complexity of the N cycle and the strong influence of climate, through its moderation of N transformation processes in the soil and its impact on N uptake by crops, make simulation-based approaches to this N management problem attractive. In this paper we describe the processes to be captured in modelling soil and plant N dynamics in sugarcane systems, and review the capability for modelling these processes. We then illustrate insights gained into improved management of N through simulation-based studies for the issues of crop residue management, irrigation management and greenhouse gas emissions. We conclude by identifying processes not currently represented in the models used for simulating N cycling in sugarcane production systems, and illustrate ways in which these can be partially overcome in the short term. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting population dynamics of weed biological control agents: science or gazing into crystal balls?

Various factors can influence the population dynamics of phytophages post introduction, of which climate is fundamental. Here we present an approach, using a mechanistic modelling package (CLIMEX), that at least enables one to make predictions of likely dynamics based on climate alone. As biological control programs will have minimal funding for basic work (particularly on population dynamics), we show how predictions can be made using a species geographical distribution, relative abundance across its range, seasonal phenology and laboratory rearing data. Many of these data sets are more likely to be available than long-term population data, and some can be incorporated into the exploratory phase of a biocontrol program. Although models are likely to be more robust the more information is available, useful models can be developed using information on species distribution alone. The fitted model estimates a species average response to climate, and can be used to predict likely geographical distribution if introduced, where the agent is likely to be more abundant (i.e. good locations) and more importantly for interpretation of release success, the likely variation in abundance over time due to intra- and inter-year climate variability. The latter will be useful in predicting both the seasonal and long-term impacts of the potential biocontrol agent on the target weed. We believe this tool may not only aid in the agent selection process, but also in the design of release strategies, and for interpretation of post-introduction dynamics and impacts. More importantly we are making testable predictions. If biological control is to become more of a science making and testing such hypothesis will be a key component.

Organic Matter Dynamics in the Wet Tropics Under Different Sugarcane Residue Management Regimes

Retention of sugarcane leaves and tops on the soil surface after harvesting has almost completely replaced pre- and post-harvest burning of crop residues in the Australian sugar industry. Since its introduction around 25 years ago, residue retention has increased soil organic matter to improve soil fertility as well as improve harvest flexibility and reduce erosion. However, in the wet tropics residue retention also poses potential problems of prolonged waterlogging, and late-season release of nitrogen which can reduce sugar content of the crop. The objective of this project is to examine the management of sugarcane residues in the wet tropics using a systems approach. Subsidiary objectives are (a) to improve understanding of nitrogen cycling in Australian sugarcane soils in the wet tropics, and (b) to identify ways to manage crop residues to retain their advantages and limit their disadvantages. Project objectives will be addressed using several approaches. Historic farm production data recorded by sugar mills in the wet tropics will be analysed to determine the effect of residue burning or retention on crop yield and sugar content. The impact of climate on soil processes will be highlighed by development of an index of nitrogen mineralisation using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. Increased understanding of nitrogen cycling in Australian sugarcane soils and management of crop residues will be gained through a field experiment recently established in the Australian wet tropics. From this experiment the decomposition and nitrogen dynamics of residues placed on the soil surface and incorporated will be compared. The effect of differences in temperature, soil water content and pH will be further examined on these soils under glasshouse conditions. Preliminary results show a high ammonium to nitrate ratio in tropics soils, which may be due to low rates of nitrification that increase the retention of nitrogen in a form (ammonium) that is less subject to leaching. Further results will be presented at Congress.