Sample registration of vital events with verbal autopsy: a renewed commitment to measuring and monitoring vital statistics

Registration of births, recording deaths by age, sex and cause, and calculating mortality levels and differentials are fundamental to evidence-based health policy, monitoring and evaluation. Yet few of the countries with the greatest need for these data have functioning systems to produce them despite legislation providing for the establishment and maintenance of vital registration. Sample vital registration (SVR), when applied in conjunction with validated verbal autopsy, procedures and implemented in a nationally representative sample of population clusters represents an affordable, cost-effective, and sustainable short- and medium-term solution to this problem. SVR complements other information sources by producing age-, sex-, and cause-specific mortality data that are more complete and continuous than those currently available. The tools and methods employed in an SVR system, however, are imperfect and require rigorous validation and continuous quality assurance; sampling strategies for SVR are also still evolving. Nonetheless, interest in establishing SVR is rapidly growing in Africa and Asia. Better systems for reporting and recording data on vital events will be sustainable only if developed hand-in-hand with existing health information strategies at the national and district levels; governance structures; and agendas for social research and development monitoring. If the global community wishes to have mortality measurements 5 or 10 years hence, the foundation stones of SVR must be laid today.

Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

Suicide in urban New South Wales, Australia 1985-1994: Socio-economic and migrant interactions

Variation of suicide with socio-economic status (SES) in urban NSW (Australia) during 1985-1994, by sex and country or region of birth, was examined using Poisson regression analysis of vital statistics and population data (age greater than or similar to 15 yr). Quintiles of SES were defined by municipality of residence and comparisons of suicide by SES were adjusted for age and country (or region) of birth (COB), and examined by COB. Risk of suicide in females was 28% that of males for all adults and 21% for youth (age 15-24 yr). Suicide risk was lower in males from southern Europe, Middle East and Asia, and higher in northern and eastern European males, compared to the Australian-born. Risks for suicide increased significantly with decreasing SES in males, but not in females. The relationship of male suicide and SES was stronger when controlled for COB. For males, the relative risk of suicide, adjusted for age and COB, was 66% higher in the lowest SES quintile compared to the highest quintile, and 39% higher for youth (age 15-24 yr). For male suicide, the population attributable fraction for SES (less than the highest quintile) was 27%. Analysis of SES differentials in male suicide according to COB indicated a significant inverse suicide gradient in relation to SES for the Australian-born and those burn in New Zealand and the United Kingdom or fire. but not in non-English speaking COB groups, except for Asia. For Australian-born males, suicide risk was 71% higher in the lowest SES group (compared to the highest), adjusted for age. These findings indicate that SES plays an important role in male suicide rates among the Australian-born and migrants from English-speaking countries and Asia, and among youth; but not in female suicide, nor suicide in most non-English speaking migrant groups. Reduction in SES differentials through economic and social policies may reduce male suicide in lower SES groups and should be seen to be at least as important as individual level interventions. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conflicting obligations: Pufendorf, Leibniz and Barbeyrac on civil authority

Barbeyrac's republication of and commentary on Leibniz' attack on Pufendorf's natural-law doctrine is often seen as symptomatic of the failure of all three early moderns to solve a particular moral-philosophical problem: that of the relationship between civil authority and morality. Making use of the first English translation of Barbeyrac's work, this article departs from the usual view by arguing that here we are confronted by three conflicting constructions of civil obligation, arising not from the common intellectual terrain of moral philosophy, but from divergent religious and political cultures. If this approach makes the three constructions less susceptible to theoretical reconciliation, then it opens them to a more revealing historical investigation, in terms of the particular religious and political circumstances in which they arose, and which they were designed to address. The result is that these early modern struggles over the nature of civil obligation confront us again as unfinished historical business.

Tourism as a contributor to development in Sri Lanka: An overview and a case study

General background is provided on the potential of tourism growth to contribute to economic development, paying particular attention to the experience of Sri Lanka. An overview of trends in inbound tourism to Sri Lanka is presented with particular consideration being given to its number of inbound tourist arrivals. Sri Lanka’s comparative position in international tourism markets, the composition of its tourist arrivals by area of origin, the extent of foreign earnings by the Sri Lankan tourism industry and variations in the amount of these earnings, and the extent of employment generation by this industry are examined. Regional aspects of the tourism industry in Sri Lanka are given special consideration, and this is followed by a report on the regional economic impact of tourism of Pinnawala Elephant Orphanage. This major tourist attraction near the edge of the Western Highlands of Sri Lanka is shown to make a significant contribution to economic decentralisation. A general discussion follows of tourism development in the Sri Lankan context. The main factors that have hindered tourism growth in Sri Lanka and its decentralisation are considered. Indications are that major impediment posed by civil disturbance and terrorism is at an end in Sri Lanka.

Classical and quantum noise in electronic systems

We review the description of noise in electronic circuits in terms of electron transport. The Poisson process is used as a unifying principle. In recent years, much attention has been given to current noise in light-emitting diodes and laser diodes. In these devices, random events associated with electron transport are correlated with photon emission times, thus modifying both the current statistics and the statistics of the emitted light. We give a review of experiments in this area with special emphasis on the ability of such devices to produce subshot-noise currents and light beams. Finally we consider the noise properties of a class of mesoscopic devices based on the quantum tunnelling of an electron into and out of a bound state. We present a simple quantum model of this process which confirms that the current noise in such a device should be subshot-noise.

Effect of removing user fees on attendance for curative and preventive primary health care services in rural South Africa

User fees are used to recover costs and discourage unnecessary attendance at primary care clinics in many developing countries. In South Africa, user fees for children aged under 6 yea rs and pregnant women were removed in 1994, and in 1997 all user fees at all primary health care clinics were abolished. The intention of these policy changes was to improve access to health services for previously disadvantaged communities. We investigated the impact of these changes on clinic attendance patterns in Hlabisa health district. Average quarterly new registrations and total attendances for preventive services (antenatal care, immunization, growth monitoring) and curative services (treatment of ailments) at a mobile primary health care unit were studied from 1992 to 1998. Regression analysis was undertaken to assess whether trends were statistically significant. There was a sustained increase in new registrations (P = 0.0001) and total attendances (P = 0.0001)for curative services, and a fall in new registrations (P = 0.01) and total attendances for immunization and growth monitoring (P = 0.0002) over the study period. The upturn in demand for curative services started at the time of the first policy change. The decreases in antenatal registrations (P = 0.07) and attendances (P = 0.09) were not statistically significant The number of new registrations for immunization and growth monitoring increased following the first policy change but declined thereafter. We found no evidence that the second policy change influenced underlying trends. The removal of user fees improved access to curative services but this may have happened at the expense of some preventive services. Governments should remain vigilant about the effects of new health policies in order to ensure that objectives are being met.

Consensus neuropathological diagnosis of common dementia syndromes: testing and standardising the use of multiple diagnostic criteria

The aim of this study was to assess the variation between neuropathologists in the diagnosis of common dementia syndromes when multiple published protocols are applied. Fourteen out of 18 Australian neuropathologists participated in diagnosing 20 cases (16 cases of dementia, 4 age-matched controls) using consensus diagnostic methods. Diagnostic criteria, clinical synopses and slides from multiple brain regions were sent to participants who were asked for case diagnoses. Diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, accuracy and variability were determined using percentage agreement and kappa statistics. Using CERAD criteria, there was a high inter-rater agreement for cases with probable and definite Alzheimer's disease but low agreement for cases with possible Alzheimer's disease. Braak staging and the application of criteria for dementia with Lewy bodies also resulted in high inter-rater agreement. There was poor agreement for the diagnosis of frontotemporal dementia and for identifying small vessel disease. Participants rarely diagnosed more than one disease in any case. To improve efficiency when applying multiple diagnostic criteria, several simplifications were proposed and tested on 5 of the original 210 cases. Inter-rater reliability for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease and dementia with Lewy bodies significantly improved. Further development of simple and accurate methods to identify small vessel lesions and diagnose frontotemporal dementia is warranted.