Causation and misconnections

In this paper I show how the conserved quantity theory, or more generally the process theory of Wesley Salmon and myself, provides a sufficient condition in an analysis of causation. To do so I will show how it handles the problem of alleged 'misconnections'. I show what the conserved quantity theory says about such cases, and why intuitions are not to be taken as sacrosanct.

Exploring the Etiology of the Association Between Birthweight and IQ in an Adolescent Twin Sample

The negative effects of very low birthweight on intellectual development have been well documented, and more recently this effect has been shown to generalise to birthweights within the normal range. In this study we investigate the etiology of this relationship by using a classical twin design to disentangle the contributions of genes and environment. A previous Dutch study (Boomsma et al., 2001) examining these effects indicated that genes were important in mediating the association of birthweight to full IQ measured at ages 7 and 10, but not at ages 5 and 12. Here the association between birthweight and IQ at age 16 is considered (N = 523 twin pairs). Using variance components modeling we found that the genetic variance in birthweight (4%) completely overlapped with that in verbal IQ but not performance or full IQ. Results further showed the importance of shared environmental effects on birthweight (similar to 60%) but not on IQ (with genes explaining up to 72% of IQ variance). Models incorporating a direction of causation parameter between birthweight and IQ provided adequate fit to the data in either causal direction for performance and full IQ, but the model with verbal 10 causing birthweight was preferred to one in which birthweight influenced verbal IQ. As the measurement of birthweight precedes the measurement of twins' IQ at age 16, the influence of verbal IQ might be better considered as a proxy for parents' 10 or education, and it is possible that brighter mothers provide better prenatal environments for their children.

From a Vicious Circle of Anxiety to a Virtuous Circle of Learning: Experience of Teaching to a Heterogenous Clientele

A considerable body of literature suggests that significant psychological barrier and anxiety characterize the teaching and learning process in statistics. This study investigates the incidence of statistics anxiety, the extent to which it can be overcome and the factors that contribute to the process of overcoming it. Self-study and overall teaching quality, amongst others, significantly contributed to this outcome. This study identifies factors contributing to overall teaching quality. The teaching and learning process typified a highly effective communication mechanism based on an appropriate diagnosis of individual needs. This cumulative change resulted from circular causation. It is argued that given appropriate conditions the vicious circle of anxiety can be transformed into a virtuous circle of learning.

Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Injury and risk-taking behavior - a systematic review

There is a substantial body of work in the scientific literature discussing the role of risk-taking behavior in the causation of injury. Despite the quantity of diverse writings on the subject most is in the form of theoretical commentaries. This review was conducted to critically assess the empirical evidence supporting the association between injury and risk-taking behavior. The review found six case-control studies and one retrospective cohort study, which met all the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis was not possible due to the diversity of the independent and outcome variables in each of the studies reviewed. Overall the review found that risk-taking behavior, however it is measured, is associated with an increased chance of sustaining an injury except in the case of high skilled, risk-taking sports where the effect may be in the other direction. Drawing specific conclusions from the research presented in this review is difficult without an agreed conceptual framework for examining risk-taking behavior and injury. Considerable work needs to be done to provide a convincing evidence base on which to build public health interventions around risk behavior. However, sufficient evidence exists to suggest that effort in this area may be beneficial for the health of the community. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceptual speed does not cause intelligence, and intelligence does not cause perceptual speed

There is ongoing debate whether the efficiency of local cognitive processes leads to global cognitive ability or whether global ability feeds the efficiency of basic processes. A prominent example is the well-replicated association between inspection time (IT), a measure of perceptual discrimination speed, and intelligence (IQ), where it is not known whether increased speed is a cause or consequence of high IQ. We investigated the direction of causation between IT and IQ in 2012 genetically related subjects from Australia and The Netherlands. Models in which the reliable variance of each observed variable was specified as a latent trait showed IT correlations of -0.44 and -0.33 with respective Performance and Verbal IQ; heritabilities were 57% (IT), 83% (PIQ) and 77% (VIQ). Directional causation models provided poor fits to the data, with covariation best explained by pleiotropic genes (influencing variation in both IT and IQ). This finding of a common genetic factor provides a better target for identifying genes involved in cognition than genes which are unique to specific traits.

Inflatable rescue boat-related injuries in Queensland surf lifesavers: The epidemiology - biomechanics interface

The objective was to describe the relationship between epidemiological and biomechanical factors in the causal pathway of inflatable rescue boat (IRB)-related injuries in Australian surf lifesavers; to develop epidemiological and biomechanical methodologies and measurement instruments that identify and measure the risk factors, for use in future epidemiological studies. Epidemiological and biomechanical models of injury causation were combined. Host, agent and environmental factors that influenced total available force for transfer to host were specified. Measurement instruments for each of the specified risk factors were developed. Instruments were piloted in a volunteer sample of surf lifesavers. Participant characteristics were recorded using demographic questionnaires; IRB operating techniques were recorded using a custom-made on-board camera (Grand RF-Guard) and images of operating techniques were coded by two independent observers. Ground reaction forces transmitted to the host through the lifesaver's feet at the time of wave impact were measured using a custom-built piezoelectric force platform. The demographic questionnaire was found practical; the on-board camera functioned successfully within the target environment. Agreement between independent coders of IRB operating technique images was significant (p < 0.001) with Kappa values ranging from 0.5 to 0.7. Biomechanical instruments performed successfully in the target environment. Peak biomechanical forces were 415.6N (left foot) and 252.9N (right foot). This study defines the relationship between epidemiological and biomechanical factors in modifying the risk of IRB-related injury in a population of surf lifesavers. Preliminary feasibility of combining epidemiological and biomechanical information has been demonstrated. Further testing of the proposed model and measurement instruments is required.

Family structure and age at menarche: A children-of-twins approach

Girls who grow up in households with an unrelated adult male reach menarche earlier than peers, a finding hypothesized to be an evolutionary strategy for families under stress. The authors tested the alternative hypothesis that nonrandom selection into stepfathering due to shared environmental and/or genetic predispositions creates a spurious relation between stepfathering and early menarche. Using the unique controls for genetic and shared environmental experiences offered by the children-of-twins design, the authors found that cousins discordant for stepfathering did not differ in age of menarche. Moreover, controlling for mother's age of menarche eliminated differences in menarcheal age associated with stepfathering in unrelated girls. These findings strongly suggest selection, and not causation, accounts for the relationship between stepfathering and early menarche.

Science-policy in environmental and health risk assessment: if we cannot do without, can we do better?

How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.

Understanding city fringe gentrification: The role of a potential investment gap

Discussion of gentrification has become ‘balkanised’ into a series of competing and intensely-held positions. The dichotomies are between economic and cultural explanations, supply-side and demand-side explanations and structural Marxist and liberal humanist views. Despite the long academic and policy interest in gentrification there is still no clear definition of what it is and why it occurs. However, almost all previous analyses see gentrification as an inner-city phenomenon and so deal with it within framework of inner-city theory and causation. This paper approaches the debate from a somewhat different position. It argues that gentrification, seen as the replacement of lower status and income households by higher status and income households, can occur outside the inner city. It uses clear cases of gentrification on the urban fringe of metropolitan Brisbane in South East Queensland, to explore mechanisms and explanations. The key to this ‘gentrification by the sea’ is a ‘potential investment gap’ between current and potential future property values, based on increasing demand for a limited locational resource – but instead of this being inner-city properties it is waterside land in a regional facing rapid population increase. The paper also draws attention to the inadequate recognition of the roles of the state and the media in previous analyses of gentrification.