Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Defining civilization utilizing anthropic reasoning

We utilize anthropic reasoning to demonstrate that we are typical observers of our reference class under a self-sampling assumption by investigating the definition of what a civilization is. With reference to the conflict between such reasoning and the observational lack of extra-terrestrial intelligent life, we conclude that a part of our theoretical understanding of the Universe will be at fault.

Identification of the causal agent of pistachio dieback in Australia

Symptoms associated with pistachio dieback in Australia include decline (little or no current season growth), xylem staining in shoots two or more years old, trunk mu and limb lesions (often covered by black, superficial fungal growth), excessive exudation of resin, dieback and death of the tree. Bacteria belonging to the genus Xanthomonas have been suggested as the causal agent. To confirm the constant association between these bacteria and the disease syndrome, the absence of other pathogens and the identity of the pathogen, we performed a series of isolations and pathogenicity tests. The only microorganism consistently isolated from diseased tissue was a bacterium that produced yellow, mucoid colonies and displayed morphological and cultural characteristics typical of the genus Xanthomonas. Database comparisons of the fatty acid and whole-cell protein profiles of five representative pistachio isolates indicated that they all belonged to X. translucens, but it was not possible to allocate the isolates to pathovar. Pathogenicity tests on cereals and grasses supported this identification. However, Koch's postulates have been only partially fulfilled because not all symptoms associated with pistachio dieback were reproduced on inoculated two-year-old pistachio trees. While discolouration was observed, dieback, excessive resinous exudate and trunk and limb lesions were not produced; expression of these symptoms may be delayed, and long-term monitoring of a small number of inoculated trees is in progress.

Symptom reporting and associations with compensation status, self-awareness, causal attributions, and emotional wellbeing following traumatic brain injury

Individuals seeking compensation following traumatic brain injury (TBI) are often found to report a disproportionately high level of symptoms relative to objective indicators of impairment. Previous studies highlight that level of symptom reporting is also related to self-awareness, causal attribution, and emotional wellbeing. Therefore, the reasons for high symptom reporting in the context of compensation are generally unclear. This study aimed to identify whether self-awareness, causal attribution, and emotional wellbeing are significantly associated with level of symptom reporting after controlling for compensation status. A sample of 54 participants with TBI comprised two groups, namely, claimants (n = 27) and non-claimants (n = 27), who were similar in terms of demographic and neuro-cognitive variables. Participants completed the Symptom Expectancy Checklist, Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale, Awareness Questionnaire and a causal attribution scale. A series of independent t tests and Pearson's correlations identified that a higher level of symptom reporting was associated with the following: seeking compensation, less severe TBI, increased age, greater self-awareness, increased post-injury changes reported by relatives, a higher level of mood symptoms, and a tendency to blame other people. Multivariate analysis identified that after controlling for demographic, injury, and compensation status variables, level of mood symptoms and self-awareness were significantly associated with level of symptom reporting. The findings suggest that mood symptoms and heightened self-awareness are significantly related to high symptom reporting independent of compensation status, thus supporting the need for clinicians to interpret symptom reporting within a biopsychosocial context.

Dissecting the causal anatomy of the link between cannabis and other illicit drugs

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Genetic uniformity of international isolates of Leifsonia xyli subsp xyli, causal agent of ratoon stunting disease of sugarcane

An international collection of the sugarcane ratoon stunting disease pathogen, Leifsonia xyli subsp. xyli, was analysed to assess genetic diversity. DNA fingerprinting using BOX primers was performed on 105 isolates, comprising 65 Australian isolates and an additional 40 isolates from Indonesia (n = 8), Japan (n = 1), USA (n = 3), Brazil (n = 2), Mali (n = 2), Zimbabwe (n = 13), South Africa (n = 9) and Reunion (n = 2). Sixty-two of these isolates were also screened using ERIC primers. No variation was found among any of the isolates. The intergenic spacer (IGS) region of the ribosomal RNA genes from 54 isolates was screened for sequence variation using single-stranded conformational polymorphism (SSCP), but none was observed. Direct sequencing of the IGS from a subset of nine isolates, representing all of the countries sampled in this study, confirmed the results of the SSCP analysis. Likewise, no sequence variation was found in the 16S ribosomal RNA genes of the same subset. Four Colombian isolates from sugarcane, morphologically similar to L. xyli subsp. xyli, were putatively shown to be an undescribed Agrococcus species of unknown pathogenicity. The lack of genetic variation among L. xyli subsp. xyli isolates, independent of time of sampling, cultivar of isolation, or country of origin, suggests the worldwide spread of a single pathogenic clone, and further suggests that sugarcane cultivars resistant to ratoon stunting disease in one area should retain this property in other regions.

Recent advances in the molecular biology of Leifsonia xyli subsp xyli, causal organism of ratoon stunting disease

Twelve years ago our understanding of ratoon stunting disease (RSD) was confined almost exclusively to diagnosis of the disease and control via farm hygiene, with little understanding of the biology of the interaction between the causal agent (Leifsonia xyli subsp. xyli) and the host plant sugarcane (Saccharum spp. hybrids). Since then, research has focused on developing the molecular tools to dissect L. xyli subsp. xyli, so that better control strategies can be developed to prevent losses from RSD. Within this review, we give a brief overview of the progression in research on L. xyli subsp. xyli and highlight future challenges. After a brief historical background on RSD, we discuss the development of molecular tools such as transformation and transposon mutagenesis and discuss the apparent lack of genetic diversity within the L. xyli subsp. xyli world population. We go on to discuss the sequencing of the genome of L. xyli subsp. xyli, describe the key findings and suggest some future research based on known deficiencies that will capitalise on this tremendous knowledge base to which we now have access.

Logic of Violations: A gentzen systems for reasoning with contrary-to-duty obligations

In this paper we present a Gentzen system for reasoning with contrary-to-duty obligations. The intuition behind the system is that a contrary-to-duty is a special kind of normative exception. The logical machinery to formalise this idea is taken from substructural logics and it is based on the definition of a new non-classical connective capturing the notion of reparational obligation. Then the system is tested against well-known contrary-to-duty paradoxes.

First report of Tubercularia lateritia as the causal agent of canker on macadamia

Tubercularia lateritia was recorded for the first time as causing canker, characterised by a sunken centre surrounded by galls or callus, on macadamia. The fungus was isolated and inoculated on young macadamia trees in the glasshouse and produced characteristic disease symptoms from which the fungus was successfully reisolated.

Reflective web interface agent

Web interface agent is used with web browsers to assist users in searching and interactions with the WWW. It is used for a variety of purposes, such as web-enabled remote control, web interactive visualization, and e-commerce activities. User may be aware or unaware of its existence. The intelligence of interface agent consists in its capability of learning and decision-making in performing interactive functions on behalf of a user. However, since web is an open system environment, the reasoning mechanism in an agent should be able to adapt changes and make decisions on exceptional situations, and therefore use meta knowledge. This paper proposes a framework of Reflective Web Interface Agent (RWIA) that is to provide causal connections between the application interfaces and the knowledge model of the interface agent. A prototype is also implemented for the purpose of demonstration.

Reasoning algebraically about probabilistic loops

Back and von Wright have developed algebraic laws for reasoning about loops in the refinement calculus. We extend their work to reasoning about probabilistic loops in the probabilistic refinement calculus. We apply our algebraic reasoning to derive transformation rules for probabilistic action systems. In particular we focus on developing data refinement rules for probabilistic action systems. Our extension is interesting since some well known transformation rules that are applicable to standard programs are not applicable to probabilistic ones: we identify some of these important differences and we develop alternative rules where possible. In particular, our probabilistic action system data refinement rules are new.