A way forward for land-use planning to achieve policy goals by using spatial modelling scenarios

This paper investigates how demographic (socioeconomic) and land-use (physical and environmental) data can be integrated within a decision support framework to formulate and evaluate land-use planning scenarios. A case-study approach is undertaken with land-use planning scenarios for a rapidly growing coastal area in Australia, the Shire of Hervey Bay. The town and surrounding area require careful planning of the future urban growth between competing land uses. Three potential urban growth scenarios are put forth to address this issue. Scenario A ('continued growth') is based on existing socioeconomic trends. Scenario B ('maximising rates base') is derived using optimisation modelling of land-valuation data. Scenario C ('sustainable development') is derived using a number of social, economic, and environmental factors and assigning weightings of importance to each factor using a multiple criteria analysis approach. The land-use planning scenarios are presented through the use of maps and tables within a geographical information system, which delineate future possible land-use allocations up until 2021. The planning scenarios are evaluated by using a goal-achievement matrix approach. The matrix is constructed with a number of criteria derived from key policy objectives outlined in the regional growth management framework and town planning schemes. The authors of this paper examine the final efficiency scores calculated for each of the three planning scenarios and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three land-use modelling approaches used to formulate the final scenarios.

Regional patterns of agricultural land use and deforestation in Colombia

An expanding human population and associated demands for goods and services continues to exert an increasing pressure on ecological systems. Although the rate of expansion of agricultural lands has slowed since 1960, rapid deforestation still occurs in many tropical countries, including Colombia. However, the location and extent of deforestation and associated ecological impacts within tropical countries is often not well known. The primary aim of this study was to obtain an understanding of the spatial patterns of forest conversion for agricultural land uses in Colombia. We modeled native forest conversion in Colombia at regional and national-levels using logistic regression and classification trees. We investigated the impact of ignoring the regional variability of model parameters, and identified biophysical and socioeconomic factors that best explain the current spatial pattern and inter-regional variation in forest cover. We validated our predictions for the Amazon region using MODIS satellite imagery. The regional-level classification tree that accounted for regional heterogeneity had the greatest discrimination ability. Factors related to accessibility (distance to roads and towns) were related to the presence of forest cover, although this relationship varied regionally. In order to identify areas with a high risk of deforestation, we used predictions from the best model, refined by areas with rural population growth rates of > 2%. We ranked forest ecosystem types in terms of levels of threat of conversion. Our results provide useful inputs to planning for biodiversity conservation in Colombia, by identifying areas and ecosystem types that are vulnerable to deforestation. Several of the predicted deforestation hotspots coincide with areas that are outstanding in terms of biodiversity value.

Effects of group status on responses to sustainable land use campaigns

A number of survey studies were conducted with landholders throughout Queensland to assess the effectiveness and perceived influence of campaigns promotng sustainable land use. While previous studies have addressed the role of group membership in persuasive communications, the current line of research extends this by focusing on the intergroup context, namely, the perceptions of group status. Across a range of samples it was found that landholders' perceptions of lower status in relation to urban people were associated with increased support for ingroup messages and decreased support for outgroup messages. These results are broadly consistent with research that suggests that threats to group identity (such as an infiuence attempt by a higher status group) will be responded to in a negative way and highlights the importance of considering relations between groups when attempting to change attiutudes.

Benthic metabolism as an indicator of stream ecosystem health

We tested direct and indirect measures of benthic metabolism as indicators of stream ecosystem health across a known agricultural land-use disturbance gradient in southeast Queensland, Australia. Gross primary production (GPP) and respiration (R-24) in benthic chambers in cobble and sediment habitats, algal biomass (as chlorophyll a) from cobbles and sediment cores, algal biomass accrual on artificial substrates and stable carbon isotope ratios of aquatic plants and benthic sediments were measured at 53 stream sites, ranging from undisturbed subtropical rainforest to catchments where improved pasture and intensive cropping are major land-uses. Rates of benthic GPP and R-24 varied by more than two orders of magnitude across the study gradient. Generalised linear regression modelling explained 80% or more of the variation in these two indicators when sediment and cobble substrate dominated sites were considered separately, and both catchment and reach scale descriptors of the disturbance gradient were important in explaining this variation. Model fits were poor for net daily benthic metabolism (NDM) and production to respiration ratio (P/R). Algal biomass accrual on artificial substrate and stable carbon isotope ratios of aquatic plants and benthic sediment were the best of the indirect indicators, with regression model R-2 values of 50% or greater. Model fits were poor for algal biomass on natural substrates for cobble sites and all sites. None of these indirect measures of benthic metabolism was a good surrogate for measured GPP. Direct measures of benthic metabolism, GPP and R-24, and several indirect measures were good indicators of stream ecosystem health and are recommended in assessing process-related responses to riparian and catchment land use change and the success of ecosystem rehabilitation actions.

Regional-scale, fully coupled modelling of stream-aquifer interaction in a tropical catchment

The planning and management of water resources in the Pioneer Valley, north-eastern Australia requires a tool for assessing the impact of groundwater and stream abstractions on water supply reliabilities and environmental flows in Sandy Creek (the main surface water system studied). Consequently, a fully coupled stream-aquifer model has been constructed using the code MODHMS, calibrated to near-stream observations of watertable behaviour and multiple components of gauged stream flow. This model has been tested using other methods of estimation, including stream depletion analysis and radon isotope tracer sampling. The coarseness of spatial discretisation, which is required for practical reasons of computational efficiency, limits the model's capacity to simulate small-scale processes (e.g., near-stream groundwater pumping, bank storage effects), and alternative approaches are required to complement the model's range of applicability. Model predictions of groundwater influx to Sandy Creek are compared with baseflow estimates from three different hydrograph separation techniques, which were found to be unable to reflect the dynamics of Sandy Creek stream-aquifer interactions. The model was also used to infer changes in the water balance of the system caused by historical land use change. This led to constraints on the recharge distribution which can be implemented to improve model calibration performance. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aquatic geochemistry of the rare earth elements and yttrium in the Pioneer River catchment, Australia

The rare earth elements are strong provenance indicators in geological materials, yet the potential for tracing provinciality in surface freshwater samples has not been adequately tested. Rare earth element and yttrium concentrations were measured at 33 locations in the Pioneer River catchment, Mackay, central Queensland, Australia. The rare earth element patterns were compared on the basis of geological, topographical and land-use features in order to investigate the provenancing potential of these elements in a small freshwater system. The rare earth element patterns of streams draining single lithological units with minor land modification show strongly coherent normalised behaviour, with a loss of coherence in agricultural locations. Evidence is reported for an anthropogenic Gd anomaly that may provide a useful hydrological tracer in this region since the introduction of magnetic resonance imaging in 2003. Several samples display a superchondritic Y/Ho mass ratio (up to 44), which is not explainable within the constraints imposed by local geology. Instead, it is suggested that the additional Y is derived from a marine source, specifically marine phosphorites, which are a typical source of fertiliser phosphorus. The data indicate that, under some circumstances, scaled and normalised freshwater rare earth patterns behave conservatively.

Quantifying potential nitrogen removal by denitrification in stream sediments at a regional scale

Potential denitrification rates were measured using the acetylene block method, in sediments collected from streams in the sub-tropical, south-east Queensland region of Australia. Our aim was to estimate how much nitrogen could be removed from lotic systems by denitrification at the regional scale. Denitrification measured at 65 sites in August and September from a catchment of 22700 km(2) was extrapolated to all streams and rivers in the region based on the sediment area available for denitrification. Denitrification rates ranged between 4 and 950 mumol N m(-2) h(-1), with most sites having rates below 150 mumol N m(-2) h(-1). Based on these results, the current study estimates that a total of 305 t of nitrogen could be denitrified per year from all streams and rivers in the region, representing 6% of the total annual nitrogen load from surrounding land use. During baseflow conditions, when nitrogen loads to streams are low, the proportion of nitrogen removed through denitrification would be substantially higher, in some cases removing 100% of the nitrogen load. It is proposed that denitrification is an important process maintaining low concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen under baseflow conditions and is therefore likely to enhance nitrogen limitation of primary production in this region.

Modelling sediment delivery ratio over the Murray Darling Basin

This paper presents a scientific and technical description of the modelling framework and the main results of modelling the long-term average sediment delivery at hillslope to medium-scale catchments over the entire Murray Darling Basin (MDB). A theoretical development that relates long-term averaged sediment delivery to the statistics of rainfall and catchment parameters is presented. The derived flood frequency approach was adapted to investigate the problem of regionalization of the sediment delivery ratio (SDR) across the Basin. SDR, a measure of catchment response to the upland erosion rate, was modeled by two lumped linear stores arranged in series: hillslope transport to the nearest streams and flow routing in the channel network. The theory shows that the ratio of catchment sediment residence time (SRT) to average effective rainfall duration is the most important control in the sediment delivery processes. In this study, catchment SRTs were estimated using travel time for overland flow multiplied by an enlargement factor which is a function of particle size. Rainfall intensity and effective duration statistics were regionalized by using long-term measurements from 195 pluviograph sites within and around the Basin. Finally, the model was implemented across the MDB by using spatially distributed soil, vegetation, topographical and land use properties under Geographic Information System (GIs) environment. The results predict strong variations in SDR from close to 0 in floodplains to 70% in the eastern uplands of the Basin. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.