Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Costs and decisions in population management: Koalas on Kangaroo Island

Many populations have a negative impact on their habitat, or upon other species in the environment, if their numbers become too large. For this reason they are often managed using some form of control. The objective is to keep numbers at a sustainable level, while ensuring survival of the population.+Here we present models that allow population management programs to be assessed. Two common control regimes will be considered: reduction and suppression. Under the suppression regime the previous population is maintained close to a particular threshold through near continuous control, while under the reduction regime, control begins once the previous population reaches a certain threshold and continues until it falls below a lower pre-defined level. We discuss how to best choose the control parameters, and we provide tools that allow population managers to select reduction levels and control rates. Additional tools will be provided to assess the effect of different control regimes, in terms of population persistence and cost.In particular we consider the effects of each regime on the probability of extinction and the expected time to extinction, and compare the control methods in terms of the expected total cost of each regime over the life of the population. The usefulness of our results will be illustrated with reference to the control of a koala population inhabiting Kangaroo Island, Australia.

On the intrinsic capacity for increase of Australian flying-foxes (Pteropus spp., Megachiroptera)

In the reproductive biology of organisms, a continuum exists from "highly reproductive species" at one end to "survivor species" at the other end. Among other factors, the position of a species along this continuum affects its sensitivity to human exploitation and its vulnerability to extinction. Flying foxes are long-lived, seasonal breeders, with a rigid, well-defined breeding season that is largely or wholly genetically determined. Unlike opportunistic, highly reproductive species, such as rabbits or mice, female flying foxes are unable to produce viable young before their second or third year of life, and are then capable of producing just one young per year. Such a breeding strategy will be successful only if flying-foxes are long-lived and suffer naturally low mortality rates. In this paper, we assess the vulnerability of flying foxes to extinction, using basic parameters of reproduction observed in the wild, and in captive breeding colonies of P. poliocephalus, P. alecto and P. scapulatus, and survival rates that are likely to apply to Australian conditions. Our models show explicitly that flying-fox populations have a very low capacity for increase, even under the most ideal conditions. The implications of our models are discussed in reference to the long-term management and conservation needs of Australian flying foxes. We conclude that current death-rates of flying-foxes in NSW and Queensland fruit orchards are putting state populations at serious risk.

Contributions of Non-consumptive Wildlife Tourism to Conservation

Wildlife tourism has the potential to contribute to conservation through a variety of mechanisms. This chapter presents a preliminary assessment of the extent to which this potential is currently being realised, comparing tourism based on viewing of animals in captive settings (with a focus on federated zoos) with that in free-ranging situations (wildlife watching). The key mechanisms involved are: direct wildlife management and research; use of income derived from wildlife tourism to fund conservation; education of visitors to behave in a more conservation-friendly manner; political lobbying in support of conservation; and provision of a socio-economic incentive for conservation. All of these occur in at least some zoos and wildlife-watching situations, and collectively the contribution of non-consumptive wildlife tourism to conservation is significant, though impossible to quantify. The key strengths of the zoo sector in this regard are its inputs into captive breeding and its potential to educate large numbers of people. in contrast, wildlife watching provides significant socio-economic incentives for conservation of natural habitats. There seem to be significant opportunities for expanding the role of non-consumptive wildlife tourism in conservation.

Reduced genetic diversity and significant genetic differentiation after translocation: Comparison of the remnant and translocated populations of bridled nailtail wallabies (Onychogalea fraenata)

Loss of genetic diversity and increased population differentiation from source populations are common problems associated with translocation programmes established from captive-bred stock or a small number of founders. The bridled nailtail wallaby is one of the most endangered macropods in Australia, having been reduced to a single remnant population in the last 100 years. A translocated population of bridled nailtail wallabies was established using animals sourced directly from the remnant population (wild-released) as well as the progeny of animals collected for a captive breeding programme (captive-bred). The aims of this study were to compare genetic diversity among released animals and their wild-born progeny to genetic diversity observed in the remnant population, and to monitor changes in genetic diversity over time as more animals were released into the population. Heterozygosity did not differ between the translocated and remnant population; however, allelic diversity was significantly reduced across all released animals and their wild-born progeny. Animals bred in captivity and their wild-born progeny were also significantly differentiated from the source population after just four generations. Wild-released animals, however, were representative of the source population and several alleles were unique to this group. Both heterozygosity and allelic diversity among translocated animals decreased over time with the additional release of captive-bred animals, as no new genetic stock was added to the population. Captive breeding programmes can provide large numbers of animals for release, but this study highlights the importance of sourcing animals directly from remnant populations in order to maintain genetic diversity and minimise genetic drift.

The genetic structure of Australasian green turtles (Chelonia mydas): exploring the geographical scale of genetic exchange

Ecological and genetic studies of marine turtles generally support the hypothesis of natal homing, but leave open the question of the geographical scale of genetic exchange and the capacity of turtles to shift breeding sites. Here we combine analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation and recapture data to assess the geographical scale of individual breeding populations and the distribution of such populations through Australasia. We conducted multiscale assessments of mtDNA variation among 714 samples from 27 green turtle rookeries and of adult female dispersal among nesting sites in eastern Australia. Many of these rookeries are on shelves that were flooded by rising sea levels less than 10 000 years (c. 450 generations) ago. Analyses of sequence variation among the mtDNA control region revealed 25 haplotypes, and their frequency distributions indicated 17 genetically distinct breeding stocks (Management Units) consisting either of individual rookeries or groups of rookeries in general that are separated by more than 500 km. The population structure inferred from mtDNA was consistent with the scale of movements observed in long-term mark-recapture studies of east Australian rookeries. Phylogenetic analysis of the haplotypes revealed five clades with significant partitioning of sequence diversity (Phi = 68.4) between Pacific Ocean and Southeast Asian/Indian Ocean rookeries. Isolation by distance was indicated for rookeries separated by up to 2000 km but explained only 12% of the genetic structure. The emerging general picture is one of dynamic population structure influenced by the capacity of females to relocate among proximal breeding sites, although this may be conditional on large population sizes as existed historically across this region.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.

Post-fledging care, philopatry and recruitment in brown thornbills

1. We describe patterns of post-fledging care, dispersal and recruitment in four cohorts of brown thornbills Acanthiza pusilla. We examine what factors influence post-fledging survival and determine how post-hedging care and the timing of dispersal influence the probability of recruitment in this small, pair breeding, Australian passerine. 2. Fledgling thornbills were dependent on their parents for approximately 6 weeks. Male fledglings were more likely than female fledglings to survive until independence. For both sexes, the probability of reaching independence increased as nestling weight increased and was higher for nestlings that fledged later in the season. 3. The timing of dispersal by juvenile thornbills was bimodal. Juveniles either dispersed by the end of the breeding season or remained on their natal territory into the autumn and winter. Juveniles that delayed dispersal were four times more likely to recruit into the local breeding population than juveniles that dispersed early. 4. Delayed dispersal was advantageous because individuals that remained on their natal territory suffered little mortality and tended to disperse only when a local vacancy was available. Consequently, the risk of mortality associated with obtaining a breeding vacancy using this dispersal strategy was low. 5. Males, the more philopatric sex, were far more likely than females to delay dispersal. Despite the apparent advantages of prolonged natal philopatry, however, only 54% of pairs that raised male fledglings to independence had sons that postponed dispersal, and most of these philopatric sons gained vacancies before their parents bred again. Consequently, few sons have the opportunity to help their parents. Constraints on delayed dispersal therefore appear to play a major role in the evolution of pair-breeding in the brown thornbill.

National survey of the prevalence, incidence, primary care burden, and treatment of heart failure in Scotland

Objective: To examine the epidemiology, primary care burden, and treatment of heart failure in Scotland, UK. Design: Cross sectional data from primary care practices participating in the Scottish continuous morbidity recording scheme between 1 April 1999 and 31 March 2000. Setting: 53 primary care practices ( 307 741 patients). Subjects: 2186 adult patients with heart failure. Results: The prevalence of heart failure in Scotland was 7.1 in 1000, increasing with age to 90.1 in 1000 among patients greater than or equal to 85 years. The incidence of heart failure was 2.0 in 1000, increasing with age to 22.4 in 1000 among patients greater than or equal to 85 years. For older patients, consultation rates for heart failure equalled or exceeded those for angina and hypertension. Respiratory tract infection was the most common comorbidity leading to consultation. Among men, 23% were prescribed a beta blocker, 11% spironolactone, and 46% an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The corresponding figures for women were 20% (p = 0.29 versus men), 7% (p = 0.02), and 34% (p < 0.001). Among patients, 75 years 26% were prescribed a β blocker, 11% spironolactone, and 50% an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The corresponding figures for patients &GE; 75 years were 19% (p = 0.04 versus patients < 75), 7% (p = 0.04), and 33% (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Heart failure is a common condition, especially with advancing age. In the elderly, the community burden of heart failure is at least as great as that of angina or hypertension. The high rate of concomitant respiratory tract infection emphasises the need for strategies to immunise patients with heart failure against influenza and pneumococcal infection. Drugs proven to improve survival in heart failure are used less frequently for elderly patients and women.

Stochastic models for mainland-island metapopulations in static and dynamic landscapes

This paper has three primary aims: to establish an effective means for modelling mainland-island metapopulations inhabiting a dynamic landscape: to investigate the effect of immigration and dynamic changes in habitat on metapopulation patch occupancy dynamics; and to illustrate the implications of our results for decision-making and population management. We first extend the mainland-island metapopulation model of Alonso and McKane [Bull. Math. Biol. 64:913-958,2002] to incorporate a dynamic landscape. It is shown, for both the static and the dynamic landscape models, that a suitably scaled version of the process converges to a unique deterministic model as the size of the system becomes large. We also establish that. under quite general conditions, the density of occupied patches, and the densities of suitable and occupied patches, for the respective models, have approximate normal distributions. Our results not only provide us with estimates for the means and variances that are valid at all stages in the evolution of the population, but also provide a tool for fitting the models to real metapopulations. We discuss the effect of immigration and habitat dynamics on metapopulations, showing that mainland-like patches heavily influence metapopulation persistence, and we argue for adopting measures to increase connectivity between this large patch and the other island-like patches. We illustrate our results with specific reference to examples of populations of butterfly and the grasshopper Bryodema tuberculata.

Breeding dynamics of koalas in open woodlands

The spatial and breeding dynamics of koalas in sub-tropical woodlands at Blair Athol in central Queensland were intensively monitored between 1993 and 1998. Genetic relationships among koalas at this locality were studied to determine the breeding dynamics of males, including whether 'resident' or 'transient' males dominate as sires. Males and females were radio-collared and tracked periodically throughout each year of the study. Genotypes from hypervariable microsatellite loci identified uniquely all individuals and were used to analyse parentage as well as to determine population genetic parameters when compared with other regional localities. Koalas at Blair Athol comprise a population in genetic equilibrium. Gene diversity estimates show the population to be similar to other populations found in similar habitat in the region, and estimates of genetic differentiation among four regional populations showed that gene flow conforms to a model of isolation by distance. Analysis of parentage found that both resident and transient males sired about equal numbers of offspring. Familial DNA analysis revealed multiple paternities of successive young in this population. The conclusion from this study is that 'resident' status among males does not confer any advantage for parentage.

Advantage of single-trial models for response to selection in wheat breeding multi-environment trials

An investigation was conducted to evaluate the impact of experimental designs and spatial analyses (single-trial models) of the response to selection for grain yield in the northern grains region of Australia (Queensland and northern New South Wales). Two sets of multi-environment experiments were considered. One set, based on 33 trials conducted from 1994 to 1996, was used to represent the testing system of the wheat breeding program and is referred to as the multi-environment trial (MET). The second set, based on 47 trials conducted from 1986 to 1993, sampled a more diverse set of years and management regimes and was used to represent the target population of environments (TPE). There were 18 genotypes in common between the MET and TPE sets of trials. From indirect selection theory, the phenotypic correlation coefficient between the MET and TPE single-trial adjusted genotype means [r(p(MT))] was used to determine the effect of the single-trial model on the expected indirect response to selection for grain yield in the TPE based on selection in the MET. Five single-trial models were considered: randomised complete block (RCB), incomplete block (IB), spatial analysis (SS), spatial analysis with a measurement error (SSM) and a combination of spatial analysis and experimental design information to identify the preferred (PF) model. Bootstrap-resampling methodology was used to construct multiple MET data sets, ranging in size from 2 to 20 environments per MET sample. The size and environmental composition of the MET and the single-trial model influenced the r(p(MT)). On average, the PF model resulted in a higher r(p(MT)) than the IB, SS and SSM models, which were in turn superior to the RCB model for MET sizes based on fewer than ten environments. For METs based on ten or more environments, the r(p(MT)) was similar for all single-trial models.

Plasma steroids and steroid-binding capacity in male semelparous dasyurid marsupials (Phascogale tapoatafa) that survive beyond the breeding season in captivity

The semelparous dasyurids display a unique life history, in that all males die within a few weeks of the completion of the breeding season. Studies of several semelparous species have revealed that the male die-off is stress-related, and accompanied by increased plasma androgen and cortisol levels and decreased corticosteroid binding capacity, resulting in suppression of immune and inflammatory responses. This study examines the endocrine profile of male brush-tailed phascogales (Phascogale tapoatafa) that survive beyond the breeding season in captivity. Plasma cortisol, corticosteroid binding globulin and albumin levels were monitored in both males and females and steroid partitioning calculated. Captive males surviving beyond the breeding season did not show the elevation in plasma cortisol and decrease in corticosteroid binding capacity reported in wild males. Plasma albumin concentrations also remained constant during the sampling period. These data indicate that captive males do not undergo the same stress response described in wild populations. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.