A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Late-season non-selective herbicide application reduces Lolium rigidum seed numbers, seed viability, and seedling fitness

Experiments were conducted to investigate the effect of Lolium rigidum (annual ryegrass) seed developmental stage and application rate of glyphosate and SpraySeed (paraquat 135 g/L+ diquat 115 g/L) on the number, germinability, and fitness of seeds produced. Glyphosate (450 g/L) was most effective when applied at a rate of 0.5-1 L/ha during heading and anthesis, reducing the number of filled seeds produced compared with unsprayed plants. Application post-anthesis, when seeds were at the milk to soft dough stage, was less effective. SpraySeed was most effective when applied post-anthesis, during the milk and early dough stages of seed development at a rate of 0.5-1L/ha, resulting in the production of few viable seeds. Although some filled seeds were produced, most of the seeds were dead. Application during anthesis or once the seeds reached soft dough stage was less effective. For both herbicides, those seeds that were capable of germinating were smaller and had slower radicle and coleoptile growth, resulting in slower early seedling growth and reduced biomass production within the first month of growth. Additionally, glyphosate application reduced the proportion of seeds exhibiting dormancy. The anticipated reduction in seed competitive ability and altered emergence timing resulting from late-season herbicide application, even when application timing is not optimal, could be exploited to reduce the likelihood of successful L. rigidum establishment in the following season.

The use and abuse of population viability analysis

A recent study by Brook ef al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al, included in their analyses, We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note th at although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.

Detection and stability of Japanese encephalitis virus RNA and virus viability in dead infected mosquitoes under different storage conditions

A semi-nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was evaluated for detection of Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus in infected mosquitoes stored under simulated northern Australian summer conditions. The effect of silica gel, thymol, and a combination of the two on RNA stability and virus viability in dead mosquitoes were also examined. While JE virus RNA was relatively stable in mosquitoes held for up to 14 days after death, viable virus was not detected after day 1. Thymol vapor inhibited fungal contamination. Detection of single mosquitoes infected with JE virus in large pools of mosquitoes was also investigated. Single laboratory-infected mosquitoes were detected in pools of less than or equal to200 mosquitoes and in pools diluted to 0.2/100 and 0.1/100 mosquitoes, using the semi-nested PCR. However, the ability to detect live virus decreased as pool size increased. The semi-nested PCR proved more expensive than virus isolation for pools of 100 mosquitoes. However, the semi-nested PCR was faster and more economical using larger pools. Results indicate that surveillance of JE virus in mosquitoes using the semi-nested PCR is an alternative to monitoring seroconversions in sentinel pigs.

Characterization of a chemsensory protein (ASP3c) from honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) as a brood pheromone carrier

Chemosensory proteins (CSPs) are ubiquitous soluble small proteins isolated from sensory organs of a wide range of insect species, which are believed to be involved in chemical communication. We report the cloning of a honeybee CSP gene called ASP3c, as well as the structural and functional characterization of the encoded protein. The protein was heterologously secreted by the yeast Pichia pastoris using the native signal peptide. ASP3c disulfide bonds were assigned after trypsinolysis followed by chromatography and mass spectrometry combined with microsequencing. The pairing (Cys(I)-Cys(II), Cys(III)-Cys(IV)) was found to be identical to that of Schistocerca gregaria CSPs, suggesting that this pattern occurs commonly throughout the insect CSPs. CD measurements revealed that ASP3c mainly consists of alpha-helices, like other insect CSPs. Gel filtration analysis showed that ASP3c is monomeric at neutral pH. Using ASA, a fluorescent fatty acid anthroyloxy analogue as a probe, ASP3c was shown to bind specifically to large fatty acids and ester derivatives, which are brood pheromone components, in the micromolar range. It was unable to bind tested general odorants and other tested pheromones (sexual and nonsexual). This is the first report on a natural pheromonal ligand bound by a recombinant CSP with a measured affinity constant.

Use of cyclic variation of integrated backscatter to assess contractile reserve and myocardial viability in chronic ischemic left ventricular dysfunction

The detection of viable myocardium has important implications for management, but use of stress echocardiography to detect this is subjective and requires exposure to dobutamine. We investigated whether cyclic variation (CV) of integrated backscatter (IB) from the apical views could provide a resting study for detection of contractile reserve (CR) and prediction of myocardial viability in 27 patients with chronic ischemic left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. Repeat echocardiography was performed after 6.7 +/- 3.8 months of follow-up; 14 patients underwent revascularization and 13 were treated medically. Using a standardized dobutamine echocardiography (DbE) protocol, images from three apical views were acquired at 80-120 frames/sec at rest and during stress. CR was identified if improvement of wall motion was observed at low dose (5 or 10 mug/kg/min) DbE. Myocardial viability was characterized by improvement at follow-up echocardiography in patients with revascularization. CVIB at rest and low dose dobutamine were assessed in 194 segments with resting asynergy (severe hypokinesis or akinesis), of which 88 (45%) were in patients who underwent revascularization. Of these, CVIB could be measured in 190 (98%) segments at rest and 185 (95%) at low dose dobutamine. Sixty-two (33%) segments had CR during low dose DbE and 50 (57%) segments showed wall-motion recovery (myocardial viability) at follow-up echocardiography. Segments with CR had significantly higher CVIB at rest (P < 0.001) and low dose dobutamine (P = 0.005) than segments without CR. Using optimal thresholds of CVIB (> 8.2 dB) at rest, the accuracy of CVIB for detecting CR was 70%. Compared with nonviable segments, viable segments had significantly higher CVIB at rest (P < 0.001) and low dose dobutamine (P < 0.001). Using optimal thresholds of CVIB (> 5.3 dB) at rest, the accuracy of CVIB for detecting myocardial viability was 85%, which was higher than that in conventional DbE (62%, P < 0.01). Thus, assessment of CV.TB from the apical views is a feasible and accurate tool for detecting CR and predicting myocardial viability in chronic LV dysfunction.

Seed viability and dormancy mechanisms of Leucopogon melaleucoides Cunn. ex DC. (Epacridaceae)

Leucopogon melaleucoides, a flowering shrub, is desired by floricultural markets but is difficult to propagate. Seed viability was tested and dormancy mechanisms were studied to develop a commercial propagation system. Although around 56% of seed were viable, germination was completely inhibited unless the endocarp was removed. After-ripened seed (8 months after collection) germinated faster than fresh seed (2 days after collection), but germination occurred over a prolonged period (155 days). Germination of after-ripened seed was promoted with GA(3) or a commercial smoke product containing unknown plant growth regulators. All viable seed treated with GA(3) at 1000 mg L-1 had germinated after 24 days. The results suggest that both a physical and physiological dormancy mechanism occur for this species, with removal of the endocarp and pretreatment with 1000 mg L-1 GA(3) promoting complete germination of viable seed.

Impact of scar thickness on the assessment of viability using dobutamine echocardiography and thallium single-photon emission computed tomography - A comparison with contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging

OBJECTIVES We sought to determine whether the transmural extent of scar (TES) explains discordances between dobutamine echocardiography (DbE) and thallium single-photon emission computed tomography (Tl-SPECT) in the detection of viable myocardium (VM). BACKGROUND Discrepancies between DbE and Tl-SPECT are often attributed to differences between contractile reserve and membrane integrity, but may also reflect a disproportionate influence of nontransmural scar on thickening at DbE. METHODS Sixty patients (age 62 +/- 12 years; 10 women and 50 men) with postinfarction left ventricular dysfunction underwent standard rest-late redistribution Tl-SPECT and DbE. Viable myocardium was identified when dysfunctional segments showed Tl activity >60% on the late-redistribution image or by low-dose augmentation at DbE. Contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (ceMRI) was used to divide TES into five groups: 0%, 75% of the wall thickness replaced by scar. RESULTS As TES increased, both the mean Tl uptake and change in wall motion score decreased significantly (both p < 0.001). However, the presence of subendocardial scar was insufficient to prevent thickening; >50% of segments still showed contractile function with TES of 25% to 75%, although residual function was uncommon with TES >75%. The relationship of both tests to increasing TES was similar, but Tl-SPECT identified VM more frequently than DbE in all groups. Among segments without scar or with small amounts of scar (50% were viable by SPECT. CONCLUSIONS Both contractile reserve and perfusion are sensitive to the extent of scar. However, contractile reserve may be impaired in the face of no or minor scar, and thickening may still occur with extensive scar. (C) 2004 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

Postsystolic thickening detected by Doppler myocardial imaging: A marker of viability or ischemia in patients with myocardial infarction

Background: Postsystolic thickening (PST) of ischemic myocardial segments has been reported to account for the characteristic heterogeneity or regional asynchrony of myocardial wall motion during acute ischemia. Hypothesis: Postsystolic thickening detected by Doppler myocardial imaging (DMI) could be a useful clinical index of myocardial viability or peri-infarction viability in patients with myocardial infarction (MI). Methods: Doppler myocardial imaging was recorded at each stage of a standard dobutamine stress echocardiogram (DSE) in 20 patients (16 male, 60 +/- 13 years) with an NIT in the territory of the left anterior descending artery. Myocardial velocity data were measured in the interventricular septum and apical inferior segment of the MI territory. Postsystolic thickening was identified if the absolute velocity of PST was higher than peak systolic velocity in the presence of either a resting PST > 2.0 cm/s or if PST doubled at low-dose dobutamine infusion. Results: Doppler myocardial imaging data could be analyzed in 38 ischemic segments (95%), and PST was observed in 21 segments (55%), including 3 segments showing PST only at low-dose dobutamine infusion. There was no significant difference of baseline wall motion score index (2.1 +/- 0.3 vs. 2.1 +/- 0.6, p = 0.77) or peak systolic velocity (1.1 +/- 1.1 vs. 1.9 +/- 2.0 cm/s, p = 0.05) between segments with and without PST Peri-infarction ischemia or viability during DSE was more frequently observed in segments with PST than in those without (86 vs. 24%, p < 0.05). The sensitivity and specificity of PST for prediction of peri-infarction viability or ischemia was 82 and 81%, respectively. Conclusions: Postsystolic thickening in the infarct territory detected by DMI is closely related with peri-infarction ischemia or viability at DSE.

Fruit processing, seed viability and dormancy mechanisms of Persoonia sericea A. Cunn. ex R. Br. and P-virgata R. Br. (Proteaceae)

The morphology of the fruit and difficulties with fruit processing impose major limitations to germination of Persoonia sericea and P. virgata. The mesocarp must be removed without harming the embryo. Fermentation of fruit or manual removal of the mesocarp was effective but digestion in 32% hydrochloric acid (HCl) completely inhibited germination. The endocarp is extremely hard and therefore very difficult and time consuming to remove without damaging the seeds. The most efficient method was cracking the endocarp with pliers, followed by manual removal of seeds. Germination was completely inhibited unless at least half of the endocarp was removed. Microbial contamination of the fruit and seeds was controlled by disinfestation and germination of the seed under aseptic conditions. The results suggest that dormancy in these species is primarily due to physical restriction of the embryo by the hard endocarp.