Postmaterial values and age: The case of Australia

Inglehart's thesis of value change is one of the most widely discussed accounts of social and political change in advanced Western nations. This article offers a critique of Inglehart's thesis and a clarification of the Australian case. While critics of Inglehart have attacked the validity of his values measures, or sought to improve them, we use Inglehart's own values index to show that even if-as Inglehart claims-his measures are valid, the age/values predictions do not hold as the theory suggests in Australia. In a recent article, Inglehart and Abramson (1999, 673) cite Australia among a group of '28 high-income' countries that exhibit 'stronger relationships between values and age' than found in the United States. We dispute Inglehart and Abramson's findings in relation to Australia. We show that the relationship between age and values in Australia, like the United States, is very weak, highlight the problematic nature of assuming a linear relationship between age and values without evidence, and discover a new non-linear relationship between values and birth cohorts in Australia that has implications for the study of values research internationally.

Glomerular number and size in autopsy kidneys: The relationship to birth weight

Background. In the Southeast United States, African Americans have an estimated incidence of hypertension and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) that is five times greater than Caucasians. Higher rates of low birth weight (LBW) among African Americans is suggested to predispose African Americans to the higher risk, possibly by reducing the number of glomeruli that develop in the kidney. This study investigates the relationships between age, race, gender, total glomerular number (N-glom), mean glomerular volume (V-glom), body surface area (BSA), and birth weight. Methods. Stereologic estimates of N-glom and V-glom were obtained using the physical disector/fractionator combination for autopsy kidneys from 37 African Americans and 19 Caucasians. Results. N-glom was normally distributed and ranged from 227,327 to 1,825,380, an 8.0-fold difference. A direct linear relationship was observed between N-glom and birth weight (r=0.423, P=0.0012) with a regression coefficient that predicted an increase of 257,426 glomeruli per kilogram increase in birth weight (alpha=0.050:0.908). Among adults there was a 4.9-fold range in V-glom , and in adults, V-glom was strongly and inversely correlated with N-glom (r=-0.640, P=0.000002). Adult V-glom showed no significant correlation with BSA for males (r=-0.0150, P=0.936), although it did for females (r=0.606, P=0.022). No racial differences in average N-glom or V-glom were observed. Conclusion. Birth weight is a strong determinant of N-glom and thereby of glomerular size in the postnatal kidney. The findings support the hypothesis that LBW by impairing nephron development is a risk factor for hypertension and ESRD in adulthood.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of Northern Hemisphere season of birth studies in schizophrenia

Based on the epidemiological finding that individuals with schizophrenia tend to be born in winter/spring when compared to the general population, we examined (1) the strength and timing of this effect in Northern Hemisphere sites, and (2) the correlation between the season of birth effect size and latitude. Studies were located via electronic data sources, published citations, and letters to authors. Inclusion criteria were that studies specify the diagnostic criteria used, that studies specify the counts of schizophrenia and general population births for each month, and that subjects and the general population be drawn from the same birth years and catchment area. We extracted data from eight studies based on 126,196 patients with schizophrenia and 86,605,807 general population births and drawn from 27 Northern Hemisphere sites. Comparing winter/spring versus summer/autumn births, we found a significant excess for winter/spring births (pooled odds ratio = 1.07; 95% confidence interval 1.05, 1.08; population attributable risk = 3.3%). There was a small but significant positive correlation between the odds ratios for the season of birth comparison and latitude (r = 0.271, p < 0.005). Furthermore, the shape of the seasonality in schizophrenia births varied by latitude band. These variations may encourage researchers to generate candidate seasonally fluctuating exposures.

Birth-death processes with disaster and instantaneous resurrection

A new structure with the special property that instantaneous resurrection and mass disaster are imposed on an ordinary birth-death process is considered. Under the condition that the underlying birth-death process is exit or bilateral, we are able to give easily checked existence criteria for such Markov processes. A very simple uniqueness criterion is also established. All honest processes are explicitly constructed. Ergodicity properties for these processes are investigated. Surprisingly, it can be proved that all the honest processes are not only recurrent but also ergodic without imposing any extra conditions. Equilibrium distributions are then established. Symmetry and reversibility of such processes are also investigated. Several examples are provided to illustrate our results.

Extinction times for a general birth, death and catastrophe process

The birth, death and catastrophe process is an extension of the birth-death process that incorporates the possibility of reductions in population of arbitrary size. We will consider a general form of this model in which the transition rates are allowed to depend on the current population size in an arbitrary manner. The linear case, where the transition rates are proportional to current population size, has been studied extensively. In particular, extinction probabilities, the expected time to extinction, and the distribution of the population size conditional on nonextinction (the quasi-stationary distribution) have all been evaluated explicitly. However, whilst these characteristics are of interest in the modelling and management of populations, processes with linear rate coefficients represent only a very limited class of models. We address this limitation by allowing for a wider range of catastrophic events. Despite this generalisation, explicit expressions can still be found for the expected extinction times.

Country of birth, country of residence, and menopausal transitions and symptoms: British birth cohort and Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

Objective: To explore endocrine-related and general symptoms among three groups of middle-aged women defined by country of birth and country of residence, in the context of debates about biological, cultural and other factors in menopause. Methods: British-born women participating in a British birth cohort study (n=1,362) and age-matched Australian-born (n=1,724) and British-born (n=233) Australian women selected from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) responded to two waves of surveys at ages 48 and 50. Results: Australian-Australian and British-Australian women report reaching menopause later than British-British women, even after accounting for smoking status and parity. Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use was lower and hysterectomy was more common among both Australian groups, probably reflecting differences in health services between Britain and Australia. The Australian-Australian and British-Australian groups were more likely to report endocrine-related symptoms than the British-British group, even after adjusting for menopausal status. British-British women were more likely to report some general symptoms. Conclusions: Symptom reporting is high among Australian and British midlife women and varies by country of residence, country of birth and menopausal status. Implications: The data do not support either a simple cultural or a simple biological explanation for differences in menopause experience.

Gauge Poisson representations for birth/death master equations

Poisson representation techniques provide a powerful method for mapping master equations for birth/death processes -- found in many fields of physics, chemistry and biology -- into more tractable stochastic differential equations. However, the usual expansion is not exact in the presence of boundary terms, which commonly occur when the differential equations are nonlinear. In this paper, a gauge Poisson technique is introduced that eliminates boundary terms, to give an exact representation as a weighted rate equation with stochastic terms. These methods provide novel techniques for calculating and understanding the effects of number correlations in systems that have a master equation description. As examples, correlations induced by strong mutations in genetics, and the astrophysical problem of molecule formation on microscopic grain surfaces are analyzed. Exact analytic results are obtained that can be compared with numerical simulations, demonstrating that stochastic gauge techniques can give exact results where standard Poisson expansions are not able to.

Vitamin D supplementation during the first year of life and risk of schizophrenia: a Finnish birth cohort study

Objective: Based on clues from epidemiology and animal experiments, low vitamin D during early life has been proposed as a risk factor for schizophrenia. The aim of this study was to explore the association between the use of vitamin D supplements during the first year of life and risk of developing schizophrenia. Method: Subjects were drawn from the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort (n = 9 114). During the first year of life, data were collected about the frequency and dose of vitamin D supplementation. Our primary outcome measures were schizophrenia, psychotic disorders other than schizophrenia, and nonpsychotic disorders as diagnosed by age 31 years. Males and females were examined separately. Results: In males, the use of either irregular or regular vitamin D supplements was associated with a reduced risk of schizophrenia (Risk ratio (RR) = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.95; RR = 0.12, 95% CI 0.02-0.90, respectively) compared with no supplementation. In males, the use of at least 2000 IU of vitamin D was associated with a reduced risk of schizophrenia (RR = 0.23, 95% CI 0.06-0.95) compared to those on lower doses. There were no significant associations between either the frequency or dose of vitamin D supplements and (a) schizophrenia in females, nor with (b) nonpsychotic disorder or psychotic disorders other than schizophrenia in either males or females. Conclusion: Vitamin D supplementation during the first year of life is associated with a reduced risk of schizophrenia in males. Preventing hypovitaminosis D during early life may reduce the incidence of schizophrenia. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of the association between socioeconomic position and cardiovascular disease risk factors in three age cohorts of Australian women: findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

Objectives To assess the associations between three measurements of socioeconomic position (SEP) - education, occupation and ability to cope on available income - and cardiovascular risk factors in three age cohorts of Australian women. Methods Cross-sectional analysis of three cohorts of Australian women aged 18-23, 45-50 and 70-75 years. Results In general, for all exposures and in all three cohorts, the odds of each adverse risk factor (smoking, obesity and physical inactivity) were lower in the most advantaged compared with the least advantaged. Within each of the three cohorts, the effects of each measurement of SEP on the outcomes were similar. There were, however, some notable between-cohort differences. The most marked differences were those with smoking. For women aged 70-75 (older), those with the highest educational attainment were more likely to have ever smoked than those with the lowest level of attainment. However, for the other two cohorts, this association was reversed, with a stronger association between low levels of education and ever smoking among those aged 18-23 (younger) than those aged 45-50 (mid-age). Similarly, for older women, those in the most skilled occupational classes were most likely to have ever smoked, with opposite findings for mid-age women. Education was also differently associated with physical inactivity across the three cohorts. Older women who were most educated were least likely to be physically inactive, whereas among the younger and mid-age cohorts there was little or no effect of education on physical inactivity. Conclusion These findings demonstrate the dynamic nature of the association between SEP and some health outcomes. Our findings do not appear to confirm previous suggestions that prestige-based measurements of SEP are more strongly associated with health-related behaviours than measurements that reflect material and psychosocial resources.

Smoking and elevated blood pressure are the most important risk factors for subarachnoid hemorrhage in the Asia-Pacific region - An overview of 26 cohorts involving 306,620 participants

Background and Purpose - The cause of subarachnoid hemorrhage ( SAH) is poorly understood and there are few large cohort studies of risk factors for SAH. We investigated the risk of SAH mortality and morbidity associated with common cardiovascular risk factors in the Asia-Pacific region and examined whether the strengths of these associations were different in Asian and Australasian ( predominantly white) populations. Methods - Cohort studies were identified from Internet electronic databases, searches of proceedings of meetings, and personal communication. Hazard ratios (HRs) for systolic blood pressure (SBP), current smoking, total serum cholesterol, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol drinking were calculated from Cox models that were stratified by sex and cohort and adjusted for age at risk. Results - Individual participant data from 26 prospective cohort studies ( total number of participants 306 620) that reported incident cases of SAH ( fatal and/or nonfatal) were available for analysis. During the median follow-up period of 8.2 years, a total of 236 incident cases of SAH were observed. Current smoking (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.8 to 3.4) and SBP > 140 mm Hg ( HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.5 to 2.7) were significant and independent risk factors for SAH. Attributable risks of SAH associated with current smoking and elevated SBP ( similar to 140 mm Hg) were 29% and 19%, respectively. There were no significant associations between the risk of SAH and cholesterol, BMI, or drinking alcohol. The strength of the associations of the common cardiovascular risk factors with the risk of SAH did not differ much between Asian and Australasian regions. Conclusions - Cigarette smoking and SBP are the most important risk factors for SAH in the Asia-Pacific region.

Effect of body mass index changes between ages 5 and 14 on blood pressure at age 14 - Findings from a birth cohort study

Weight reduction in clinical populations of severely obese children has been shown to have beneficial effects on blood pressure, but little is known about the effect of weight gain among children in the general population. This study compares the mean blood pressure at 14 years of age with the change in overweight status between ages 5 and 14. Information from 2794 children born in Brisbane, Australia, and who were followed up since birth and had body mass index (BMI) and blood pressure measurements at ages 5 and 14 were used. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure at age 14 was the main outcomes and different patterns of change in BMI from age 5 to 14 were the main exposure. Those who changed from being overweight at age 5 to having normal BMI at age 14 had similar mean blood pressures to those who had a normal BMI at both time points: age- and sex-adjusted mean difference in systolic blood pressure 1.54 ( - 0.38, 3.45) mm Hg and in diastolic blood pressure 0.43 ( - 0.95, 1.81) mm Hg. In contrast, those who were overweight at both ages or who had a normal BMI at age 5 and were overweight at age 14 had higher blood pressure at age 14 than those who had a normal BMI at both times. These effects were independent of a range of potential confounding factors. Our findings suggest that programs that successfully result in children changing from overweight to normal-BMI status for their age may have important beneficial effects on subsequent blood pressure.

Does birth weight predict childhood diet in the Avon longitudinal study of parents and children?

Study objective: Low birth weight predicts cardiovascular disease in adulthood, and one possible explanation is that children with lower birth weight consume more fat than those born heavier. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate associations between birth weight and childhood diet, and in particular, to test the hypothesis that birth weight is inversely related to total and saturated fat intake. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: South west England. Participants: A subgroup of children enrolled in the Avon longitudinal study of parents and children, with data on birth weight and also diet at ages 8, 18, 43 months, and 7 years ( 1152, 998, 848, and 771 children respectively). Main results: Associations between birth weight and diet increased in strength from age 8 to 43 months, but had diminished by age 7 years. Fat, saturated fat, and protein intakes were inversely, and carbohydrate intake was positively associated with birth weight at 43 months of age, after adjusting for age, sex, and energy intake. After adjustment for other confounders, all associations were weakened, although there was still a suggestion of a relation with saturated fat ( -0.48 (95% CI -0.97, 0.02) g/day per 500 g increase in birth weight. Similar patterns were seen in boys and girls separately, and when the sample was restricted to those with complete data at all ages. Conclusions: A small inverse association was found between birth weight and saturated fat intake in children at 43 months of age but this was not present at 7 years of age. This study therefore provides little evidence that birth weight modifies subsequent childhood diet.