Future contributions of crop modelling - from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic regulation and aiding crop improvement

Crop modelling has evolved over the last 30 or so years in concert with advances in crop physiology, crop ecology and computing technology. Having reached a respectable degree of acceptance, it is appropriate to review briefly the course of developments in crop modelling and to project what might be major contributions of crop modelling in the future. Two major opportunities are envisioned for increased modelling activity in the future. One opportunity is in a continuing central, heuristic role to support scientific investigation, to facilitate decision making by crop managers, and to aid in education. Heuristic activities will also extend to the broader system-level issues of environmental and ecological aspects of crop production. The second opportunity is projected as a prime contributor in understanding and advancing the genetic regulation of plant performance and plant improvement. Physiological dissection and modelling of traits provides an avenue by which crop modelling could contribute to enhancing integration of molecular genetic technologies in crop improvement. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of small signal stability margins using genetic optimization

Power system small signal stability analysis aims to explore different small signal stability conditions and controls, namely: (1) exploring the power system security domains and boundaries in the space of power system parameters of interest, including load flow feasibility, saddle node and Hopf bifurcation ones; (2) finding the maximum and minimum damping conditions; and (3) determining control actions to provide and increase small signal stability. These problems are presented in this paper as different modifications of a general optimization to a minimum/maximum, depending on the initial guesses of variables and numerical methods used. In the considered problems, all the extreme points are of interest. Additionally, there are difficulties with finding the derivatives of the objective functions with respect to parameters. Numerical computations of derivatives in traditional optimization procedures are time consuming. In this paper, we propose a new black-box genetic optimization technique for comprehensive small signal stability analysis, which can effectively cope with highly nonlinear objective functions with multiple minima and maxima, and derivatives that can not be expressed analytically. The optimization result can then be used to provide such important information such as system optimal control decision making, assessment of the maximum network's transmission capacity, etc. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Genetic association and cellular function of MC1R variant alleles in human pigmentation

We have examined MC1R variant allele frequencies in the general population of South East Queensland and in a collection of adolescent dizygotic and monozygotic twins and family members to define statistical associations with hair and skin color, freckling, and mole count. Results of these studies are consistent with a linear recessive allelic model with multiplicative penetrance in the inheritance of red hair. Four alleles, D84E, R151C, R160W, and D294H, are strongly associated with red hair and fair skin with multinomial regression analysis showing odds ratios of 63, 118, 50, and 94, respectively. An additional three low-penetrance alleles V60L, V92M, and R163Q have odds ratios 6, 5, and 2 relative to the wild-type allele. To address the cellular effects of MC1R variant alleles in signal transduction, we expressed these receptors in permanently transfected HEK293 cells. Measurement of receptor activity via induction of a cAMP-responsive luciferase reporter gene found that the R151C and R160W receptors were active in the presence of NDP-MSH ligand, but at much reduced levels compared with that seen with the wild-type receptor. The ability to stimulate phosphorylation of the cAMP response element binding protein (CREB) transcription factor was also apparent in all stimulated MC1R variant allele-expressing HEK293 cell extracts as assessed by immunoblotting. In contrast, human melanoma cell lines showed wide variation in the their ability to undergo cAMP-mediated CREB phosphorylation. Culture of human melanocytes of known MC1R genotype may provide the best experimental approach to examine the functional consequences for each MC1R variant allele. With this objective, we have established more than 300 melanocyte cell strains of defined MC1R genotype.

An Australian twin study of the genetic basis of preeclampsia and eclampsia

OBJECTIVE: We investigated maternal versus fetal genetic causes of preeclampsia and eclampsia by assessing concordance between monozygotic and dizygotic female co-twins, between female partners of male monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs, and between female twins and partners of their male co-twins in dizygotic opposite-sex pairs. STUDY DESIGN: Two large birth cohorts of volunteer Australian female twin pairs (N = 1504 pairs and N = 858 pairs) were screened and interviewed, and available medical and hospital records were obtained and reviewed where indicated, with diagnoses assigned according to predetermined criteria. RESULTS: With strict diagnostic criteria used for preeclampsia and eclampsia, no concordant female twin pairs were found. Collapsing diagnoses of definite, probable, or possible preeclampsia or eclampsia resulted in very low genetic recurrence risk estimates. CONCLUSION: Results from these two cohorts of female twin pairs do not support clear, solely maternal genetic influences on preeclampsia and eclampsia. Numbers of parous female partners of male twins were too low for conclusions to be drawn regarding paternal transmission.

The influence of genetic and environmental factors in estimations of current body size, desired body size, and body dissatisfaction

The objective was to investigate the genetic epidemiology of figural stimuli. Standard figural stimuli were available from 5,325 complete twin pairs: 1,751 (32.9%) were monozygotic females, 1,068 (20.1%) were dizygotic females, 752 (14.1%) were monozygotic males, 495 (9.3%) were dizygotic males, and 1,259 (23.6%) were dizygotic male-female pairs. Univariate twin analyses were used to examine the influences on the individual variation in current body size and ideal body size. These data were analysed separately for men and women in each of five age groups. A factorial analysis of variance, with polychoric correlations between twin pairs as the dependent variable, and age, sex, zygosity, and the three interaction terms (age x sex, age x zygosity, sex x zygosity) as independent variables, was used to examine trends across the whole data set. Results showed genetic influences had the largest impact on the individual variation in current body size measures, whereas non-shared environmental influences were associated with the majority of individual variation in ideal body size. There was a significant main effect of zygosity (heritability) in predicting polychoric correlations for current body size and body dissatisfaction. There was a significant main effect of gender and zygosity in predicting ideal body size, with a gender x zygosity interaction. In common with BMI, heritability is important in influencing the estimation of current body size. Selection of desired body size for both men and women is more strongly influenced by environmental factors.

Analysis of genetic diversity within Australian lucerne cultivars and implications for future genetic improvement

Lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) is autotetraploid, and predominantly allogamous. This complex breeding structure maximises the genetic diversity within lucerne populations making it difficult to genetically discriminate between populations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the level of random genetic diversity within and between a selection of Australian-grown lucerne cultivars, with tetraploid M. falcata included as a possible divergent control source. This diversity was evaluated using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPDs). Nineteen plants from each of 10 cultivars were analysed. Using 11 RAPD primers, 96 polymorphic bands were scored as present or absent across the 190 individuals. Genetic similarity estimates (GSEs) of all pair-wise comparisons were calculated from these data. Mean GSEs within cultivars ranged from 0.43 to 0.51. Cultivar Venus (0.43) had the highest level of intra-population genetic diversity and cultivar Sequel HR (0.51) had the lowest level of intra-population genetic diversity. Mean GSEs between cultivars ranged from 0.31 to 0.49, which overlapped with values obtained for within-cultivar GSE, thus not allowing separation of the cultivars. The high level of intra- and inter-population diversity that was detected is most likely due to the breeding of synthetic cultivars using parents derived from a number of diverse sources. Cultivar-specific polymorphisms were only identified in the M. falcata source, which like M. sativa, is outcrossing and autotetraploid. From a cluster analysis and a principal components analysis, it was clear that M. falcata was distinct from the other cultivars. The results indicate that the M. falcata accession tested has not been widely used in Australian lucerne breeding programs, and offers a means of introducing new genetic diversity into the lucerne gene pool. This provides a means of maximising heterozygosity, which is essential to maximising productivity in lucerne.

Genetic Epidemiology of Alcohol-Induced Blackouts

Background: Alcohol-induced blackouts (ie, periods of anterograde amnesia) have received limited recent research attention. Objective: To examine the genetic epidemiology of lifetime blackouts and having had 3 or more blackouts in a year, including analyses controlling for the frequency of intoxication. Design, Setting, and Participants: Members of the young adult Australian Twin Register, a volunteer twin panel born between January 1, 1964, and December 3 1, 1971, were initially registered with the panel as children by their parents between 1980 and 1982. They underwent structured psychiatric telephone inter-views from February 1996 through September 2000. The current sample contains 2324 monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs (mean [SDI age 29.9 [2.5] years) for whom both twins' responses were coded for blackout questions and for frequency of intoxication. Main Outcome Measure: Data on lifetime blackouts and having had 3 or more blackouts in a year were collected within an examination of the genetic epidemiology of alcoholism. Results: A lifetime history of blackouts was reported by 39.3% of women and 52.4% of men; 11.4% of women and 20.9% of men reported having had 3 or more blackouts in a year. The heritability of lifetime blackouts was 52.5% and that of having had 3 or more blackouts in a year was 57.8%. Models that controlled for frequency of intoxication found evidence of substantial genetic contribution unique to risk for the blackouts and a significant component of genetic risk shared with frequency of intoxication. Conclusions: The finding of a substantial genetic contribution to liability for alcohol-induced blackouts including a component of genetic loading shared with frequency of intoxication may offer important additional avenues to investigate susceptibility to alcohol-related problems.

Genetic screening for susceptibility to depression: can we and should we?

Objective: To summarize current knowledge about genetic susceptibility to mood disorders and examine ethical and policy issues that will need to be addressed if robustly replicated susceptibility alleles lead to proposals to screen and intervene with persons at increased genetic risk of developing mood disorders. Method: Empirical studies and reviews of the genetics of unipolar and bipolar depression were collected via MEDLINE and psycINFO database searches. Results: A number of candidate genes for depression have been identified, each of which increases the risk of mood disorders two- or threefold. None of the associations between these alleles and mood disorders have been consistently reported to date. Conclusions: Screening the population for genetic susceptibility to mood disorders is unlikely to be a practically useful policy (given plausible assumptions). Until there are effective treatments for persons at increased risk, screening is arguably unethical. Screening within affected families to advise on risks of developing depression would entail screening children and adolescents, raising potentially serious ethical issues of consent and stigmatization. Genetic research on depression should continue under appropriate ethical guidelines that protect the interests of research participants.

The policy and ethical implications of genetic research on attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Objective: To review the policy and ethical implications of recent research on the molecular genetics of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Method: MEDLINE and psycINFO database searches were used to identify studies on the genetics of ADHD. The implications of replicated candidate genes are discussed. Results: The findings for most genes have been inconsistent but several studies have implicated the genes in the dopaminergic pathway in the aetiology of ADHD. Conclusions: The current evidence on the genetics of ADHD is insufficient to justify genetic screening tests but it will provide important clues as to the aetiology of ADHD. Genetic information on susceptibility to ADHD has the potential to be abused and to stigmatize individuals. Researchers and clinicians need to be mindful of these issues in interpreting and disseminating the results of genetic studies of ADHD.

A genetic estimation algorithm for parameters of stochastic ordinary differential equations

A generic method for the estimation of parameters for Stochastic Ordinary Differential Equations (SODEs) is introduced and developed. This algorithm, called the GePERs method, utilises a genetic optimisation algorithm to minimise a stochastic objective function based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. Numerical simulations are utilised to form the KS statistic. Further, the examination of some of the factors that improve the precision of the estimates is conducted. This method is used to estimate parameters of diffusion equations and jump-diffusion equations. It is also applied to the problem of model selection for the Queensland electricity market. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic and environmental influences on extreme personality dispositions in adolescent female twins

Background: The objective was to determine whether the pattern of environmental and genetic influences on deviant personality scores differs from that observed for the normative range of personality, comparing results in adolescent and adult female twins. Methods: A sample of 2,796 female adolescent twins ascertained from birth records provided Junior Eysenck Personality Questionnaire data. The average age of the sample was 17.0 years ( S. D. 2.3). Genetic analyses of continuous and extreme personality scores were conducted. Results were compared for 3,178 adult female twins. Results: Genetic analysis of continuous traits in adolescent female twins were similar to findings in adult female twins, with genetic influences accounting for between 37% and 44% of the variance in Extraversion (Ex), Neuroticism (N), and Social Non-Conformity (SNC), with significant evidence of shared environmental influences (19%) found only for SNC in the adult female twins. Analyses of extreme personality characteristics, defined categorically, in the adolescent data and replicated in the adult female data, yielded estimates for high N and high SNC that deviated substantially (p < .05) from those obtained in the continuous trait analyses, and provided suggestive evidence that shared family environment may play a more important role in determining personality deviance than has been previously found when personality is viewed continuously. However, multiple-threshold models that assumed the same genetic and environmental determinants of both normative range variation and extreme scores gave acceptable fits for each personality dimension. Conclusions: The hypothesis of differences in genetic or environmental factors responsible for N and SNC among female twins with scores in the extreme versus normative ranges was partially supported, but not for Ex.

Cluster analysis of the p53 genetic regulatory network: topology and biology

We describe a network module detection approach which combines a rapid and robust clustering algorithm with an objective measure of the coherence of the modules identified. The approach is applied to the network of genetic regulatory interactions surrounding the tumor suppressor gene p53. This algorithm identifies ten clusters in the p53 network, which are visually coherent and biologically plausible.

Optimal design of a regenerative dynamic dynamometer using genetic algorithms

This paper presents an approach for optimal design of a fully regenerative dynamic dynamometer using genetic algorithms. The proposed dynamometer system includes an energy storage mechanism to adaptively absorb the energy variations following the dynamometer transients. This allows the minimum power electronics requirement at the mains power supply grid to compensate for the losses. The overall dynamometer system is a dynamic complex system and design of the system is a multi-objective problem, which requires advanced optimisation techniques such as genetic algorithms. The case study of designing and simulation of the dynamometer system indicates that the genetic algorithm based approach is able to locate a best available solution in view of system performance and computational costs.