Testing insect movement theory: empirical analysis of pest data routinely collected from agricultural crops

Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of adsorption data of graphitized thermal carbon black with a DFT-lattice gas theory

In this paper we analyzed the adsorption of gases and vapors on graphitised thermal carbon black by using a modified DFT-lattice theory, in which we assume that the behavior of the first layer in the adsorption film is different from those of second and higher layers. The effects of various parameters on the topology of the adsorption isotherm were first investigated, and the model was then applied in the analysis of adsorption data of numerous substances on carbon black. We have found that the first layer in the adsorption film behaves differently from the second and higher layers in such a way that the adsorbate-adsorbate interaction energy in the first layer is less than that of second and higher layers, and the same is observed for the partition function. Furthermore, the adsorbate-adsorbate and adsorbate-adsorbent interaction energies obtained from the fitting are consistently lower than the corresponding values obtained from the viscosity data and calculated from the Lorentz-Berthelot rule, respectively.

Nonfatal heroin overdoses in Queensland, Australia: an analysis of ambulance data

In the past decade, the utilization of ambulance data to inform the prevalence of nonfatal heroin overdose has increased. These data can assist public health policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and health providers in planning and allocating resources. This study examined the 672 ambulance attendances at nonfatal heroin overdoses in Queensland, Australia, in 2000. Gender distribution showed a typical 70/30 male-to-female ratio. An equal number of persons with nonfatal heroin overdose were between 15 and 24 years of age and 25 and 34 years of age. Police were present in only 1 of 6 cases, and 28.1% of patients reported using drugs alone. Ambulance data are proving to be a valuable population-based resource for describing the incidence and characteristics of nonfatal heroin overdose episodes. Future studies could focus on the differences between nonfatal heroin overdose and fatal heroin overdose samples.

Is mortality from heart failure increasing in Australia? An analysis of official data on mortality for 1997-2003

Objective To assess whether trends in mortality from heart failure(HF) in Australia are due to a change in awareness of the condition or real changes in its epidemiology. Methods We carried out a retrospective analysis of official data on national mortality data between 1997 and 2003. A death was attributed to HF if the death certificate mentioned HF as either the underlying cause of death (UCD) or among the contributory factors. Findings From a total of 907 242 deaths, heart failure was coded as the UCD for 29 341 (3.2%) and was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate in 135 268 (14.9%). Between 1997 and 2003, there were decreases in the absolute numbers of deaths and in the age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for HF either as UCD or mentioned anywhere for both sexes. HF was mentioned for 24.6% and 17.8% of deaths attributed to ischaemic heart disease and circulatory disease, respectively, and these proportions remained unchanged over the period of study. In addition, HF as UCD accounted for 8.3% of deaths attributed to circulatory disease and this did not change materially from 1997 to 2003. Conclusion The decline in mortality from HF measured as either number of deaths or rate probably reflects a real change in the epidemiology of HF. Population-based studies are required to determine accurately the contributions of changes in incidence, survival and demographic factors to the evolving epidemiology of HF.

Skin cancer clinics in Australia: workload profile and performance indicators from an analysis of billing data

Objective: To describe the workload profile in a network of Australian skin cancer clinics. Design and setting: Analysis of billing data for the first 6 months of 2005 in a primary-care skin cancer clinic network, consisting of seven clinics and staffed by 20 doctors, located in the Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales. Main outcome measures: Consultation to biopsy ratio (CBR); biopsy to treatment ratio (BTR); number of benign naevi excised per melanoma (number needed to treat [NNT]). Results: Of 69780 billed activities, 34 622 (49.6%) were consultations, 19 358 (27.7%) biopsies, 8055 (11.5%) surgical excisions, 2804 (4.0%) additional surgical repairs, 1613 (2.3%) non-surgical treatments of cancers and 3328 (4.8%) treatments of premalignant or non-malignant lesions. A total of 6438 cancers were treated (116 melanomas by excision, 4709 non-melanoma skin cancers [NMSCs] by excision, and 1613 NMSCs non-surgically); 5251 (65.2%) surgical wounds were repaired by direct suture, 2651 (32.9%) by a flap (of which 44.8% were simple flaps), 42 (0.5%) by wedge excision and 111 (1.4%) by grafts. The CBR was 1.79, the BTR was 3.1 and the NNT was 28.6. Conclusions: In this network of Australian skin cancer clinics, one in three biopsies identified a skin cancer (BTR, 3.1), and about 29 benign lesions were excised per melanoma (NNT, 28.6). The estimated NNT was similar to that reported previously in general practice. More data are needed on health outcomes, including effectiveness of treatment and surgical repair.

Integrating technology to improve the efficiency of qualitative data analysis - A note on methods

Qualitative data analysis (QDA) is often a time-consuming and laborious process usually involving the management of large quantities of textual data. Recently developed computer programs offer great advances in the efficiency of the processes of QDA. In this paper we report on an innovative use of a combination of extant computer software technologies to further enhance and simplify QDA. Used in appropriate circumstances, we believe that this innovation greatly enhances the speed with which theoretical and descriptive ideas can be abstracted from rich, complex, and chaotic qualitative data. © 2001 Human Sciences Press, Inc.

Handedness in twins: Joint analysis of data from 35 samples

Simultaneous analysis of handedness data from 35 samples of twins (with a combined sample size of 21,127 twin pairs) found a small but significant additive genetic effect accounting for 25.47% of the variance (95% confidence interval [CI] 15.69-29.51%). No common environmental influences were detected (C = 0.00; 95% Cl 0.00-7.67%), with the majority of the variance, 74.53%, explained by factors unique to the individual (95% Cl 70.49-78.67%). No significant heterogeneity was observed within studies that used similar methods to assess handedness, or across studies that used different methods. At an individual level the majority of studies had insufficient power to reject a purely unique environmental model due to insufficient power to detect familial aggregation. This lack of power is seldom mentioned within studies, and has contributed to the misconception that twin studies of handedness are not informative.

A methodology for analysis of sugarcane productivity trends - I. Analysis across districts

Historically, few articles have addressed the use of district level mill production data for analysing the effect of varietal change on sugarcane productivity trends. This appears to be due to lack of compiled district data sets and appropriate methods by which to analyse these data. Recently, varietal data on tonnes of sugarcane per hectare (TCH), sugar content (CCS), and their product, tonnes of sugar content per hectare (TSH) on a district basis, have been compiled. This study was conducted to develop a methodology for regular analysis of such data from mill districts to assess productivity trends over time, accounting for variety and variety x environment interaction effects for 3 mill districts (Mulgrave, Babinda, and Tully) from 1958 to 1995. Restricted maximum likelihood methodology was used to analyse the district level data and best linear unbiased predictors for random effects, and best linear unbiased estimates for fixed effects were computed in a mixed model analysis. In the combined analysis over districts, Q124 was the top ranking variety for TCH, and Q120 was top ranking for both CCS and TSH. Overall production for TCH increased over the 38-year period investigated. Some of this increase can be attributed to varietal improvement, although the predictors for TCH have shown little progress since the introduction of Q99 in 1976. Although smaller gains have been made in varietal improvement for CCS, overall production for CCS decreased over the 38 years due to non-varietal factors. Varietal improvement in TSH appears to have peaked in the mid-1980s. Overall production for TSH remained stable over time due to the varietal increase in TCH and the non-varietal decrease in CCS.

An analysis of the relationship between grain size, solute content, and the potency and number density of nucleant particles

To be able to determine the grain size obtained from the addition of a grain refining master alloy, the relationship between grain size (d), solute content (defined by the growth restriction factor Q), and the potency and number density of nucleant particles needs to be understood. A study was undertaken on aluminium alloys where additions of TiB2 and Ti were made to eight wrought aluminum alloys covering a range of alloying elements and compositions. It was found from analysis of the data that d = a/(3)root pct TiB2 + b/Q. From consideration of the experimental data and from further analysis of previously published data, it is shown that the coefficients a and b relate to characteristics of the nucleant particles added by a grain refiner. The term a is related to the maximum density of active TiB2 nucleant particles within the melt, while b is related to their potency. By using the analysis methodology presented in this article, the performance characteristics of different master alloys were defined and the effects of Zr and Si on the poisoning of grain refinement were illustrated.

Lymphoproliferative disease of the ocular adnexa: A clinical and pathologic study with statistical analysis of 69 patients

Purpose: To evaluate the clinical features, treatment, and outcomes of a cohort of patients with ocular adnexal lymphoproliferative disease classified according to the World Health Organization modification of the Revised European-American Classification of Lymphoid neoplasms and to perform a robust statistical analysis of these data. Methods: Sixty-nine cases of ocular adnexal lymphoproliferative disease, seen in a tertiary referral center from 1992 to 2003, were included in the study. Lesions were classified by using the World Health Organization modification of the Revised European-American Classification of Lymphoid neoplasms classification. Outcome variables included disease-specific Survival, relapse-free survival, local control, and distant control. Results: Stage IV disease at presentation, aggressive lymphoma histology, the presence of prior or concurrent systemic lymphoma at presentation, and bilateral adnexal disease were significant predictors for reduced disease-specific survival, local control, and distant control. Multivariate analysis found that aggressive histology and bilateral adnexal disease had significantly reduced disease-specific Survival. Conclusions: The typical presentation of adnexal lymphoproliferative disease is with a painless mass, swelling, or proptosis; however, pain and inflammation occurred in 20% and 30% of patients, respectively. Stage at presentation, tumor histology, primary or secondary status, and whether the process was unilateral or bilateral were significant variables for disease outcome. In this study, distant spread of lymphoma was lower in patients who received greater than 20 Gy of orbital radiotherapy.

On the statistical analysis of the GS-NS0 cell proteome: Imputation, clustering and variability testing

We have undertaken two-dimensional gel electrophoresis proteomic profiling on a series of cell lines with different recombinant antibody production rates. Due to the nature of gel-based experiments not all protein spots are detected across all samples in an experiment, and hence datasets are invariably incomplete. New approaches are therefore required for the analysis of such graduated datasets. We approached this problem in two ways. Firstly, we applied a missing value imputation technique to calculate missing data points. Secondly, we combined a singular value decomposition based hierarchical clustering with the expression variability test to identify protein spots whose expression correlates with increased antibody production. The results have shown that while imputation of missing data was a useful method to improve the statistical analysis of such data sets, this was of limited use in differentiating between the samples investigated, and highlighted a small number of candidate proteins for further investigation. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Formal analysis of human-computer interaction using model checking

Experiments with simulators allow psychologists to better understand the causes of human errors and build models of cognitive processes to be used in human reliability assessment (HRA). This paper investigates an approach to task failure analysis based on patterns of behaviour, by contrast to more traditional event-based approaches. It considers, as a case study, a formal model of an air traffic control (ATC) system which incorporates controller behaviour. The cognitive model is formalised in the CSP process algebra. Patterns of behaviour are expressed as temporal logic properties. Then a model-checking technique is used to verify whether the decomposition of the operator's behaviour into patterns is sound and complete with respect to the cognitive model. The decomposition is shown to be incomplete and a new behavioural pattern is identified, which appears to have been overlooked in the analysis of the data provided by the experiments with the simulator. This illustrates how formal analysis of operator models can yield fresh insights into how failures may arise in interactive systems.

Analysis of long-term light-trap data for Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia: the effect of climate and crop host plants

Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches at Narrabri, Australia, were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner). The size of the second generation was significantly related to the size of the first generation, to winter rainfall, which had a positive effect, and to spring rainfall which had a negative effect. These variables accounted for up to 96% of the variation in size of the second generation from year to year. Rainfall and crop hosts were also important for the size of the third generation. The area and tonnage of many potential host crops were significantly correlated with winter rain. When winter rain was omitted from the analysis, the sizes of both the second and third generations could be expressed as a function of the size of the previous generation and of the areas planted to lucerne, sorghum and maize. Lucerne and maize always had positive coefficients and sorghum a negative one. We extended our analysis to catches of H. punctigera (Wallengren), which declines in abundance after the second generation. Winter rain had a positive effect on the sizes of the second and third generations, and rain in spring or early summer had a negative effect. Only the area grown to lucerne had a positive effect on abundance. Forecasts of pest levels from a few months to a few weeks in advance are discussed, along with the improved understanding of the seasonal dynamics of both species and the significance of crops in the management of insecticide resistance for H. armigera.